Perhaps we were a bit put off by his so-so performance in centerfield to start the year, but Carroll is a really good right fielder.
For all the amazing tools and skills that Corbin Carroll has displayed in his 2+ years in the Majors, the one area of his game that is most commonly disparaged is his defense. The criticisms leveled at his play in the field aren’t entirely unwarranted, either. In 2023, Carroll’s (lack of) arm was a common complaint among Diamondbacks fans. In 2024, his inability to play centerfield like Alek Thomas was pointed out nearly nightly in Gameday Threads.
During the offseason downtime, I like to cruise through various leaderboards on Baseball Savant and FanGraphs, looking for interesting tidbits (gonna borrow that line today, mcbenseigs) that I can share with the SnakePit. Recently, I was looking at the Fielding leaderboards at various positions and something stuck out.
Sal Frelick had an outstanding year and completely deserved his Gold Glove win in 2024, but, to my surprise, Corbin Carroll was almost universally rated as the second-best right fielder in the National League last year. In fact, in every single one of the categories above where he was 2nd in NL, he was also more highly rated than every right fielder in the AL except for Gold Glove winner Wilyer Abreu. He was higher than Abreu in both UZR and UZR/150 as well. The metrics LOVED Corbin Carroll’s defense last year. Why didn’t we?
Well, I’ll admit that Corbin Carroll’s defense in centerfield last year was NOT loved by the advanced stats and the eye test certainly backed that up. With Corbin having to cover down in center during Alek Thomas’ early injury, it almost felt like the well of fan opinion on his defense was poisoned immediately in April (his atrocious hitting during the first few months didn’t help things, either) and it never could swing fully around to appreciate how well he was playing defensively down the stretch.
So let’s take a look at his time in centerfield. If he was one of the 3 best right fielders in all of baseball last year, why was he so bad in center?
When playing the massive pastures of the NL West, speed in centerfield is a necessity, and Corbin has speed in spades. His speed translates to quick jumps on the ball, as measured by Baseball Savant, his Reaction speed (feet covered in first 1.5 seconds) was T-5th best among all MLB outfielders. His Burst (feet covered in the second 1.5 seconds) was not as premium but was still in the upper third of the league. Both of Carroll’s 2024 marks in those areas were better than Alek Thomas’ 2023 marks, too.
We’ve established Carroll’s got the wheels to play in center, so where does he fall short? Why does his speed play in the corners but not center? Let me show you one more set of numbers.
Statcast can measure defender success rate against the expected success rate on all balls in play based on distance the ball is hit away from the defender and how much time the defender has to get to the ball. Additionally, it can break down how the player does when moving in a certain direction. Corbin Carroll’s superpower speed is best on display when moving in towards the plate or laterally, and the numbers bear that out. Where he falls short of Alek Thomas and elite center fielders is when he’s moving back towards the wall. The eye test matches this, too. Here are a couple plays, one that he did record the out and another that he didn’t; he just doesn’t look comfortable moving backward on either one.
In centerfield, the fences are deeper so there is a lot more ground to cover behind you than in the corner outfield positions. He’s not as adept at getting onto the optimum route early like Alek Thomas. Here are a couple examples of Alek tracking backward for fly balls. The first clip is from 2023 and is essentially the exact same amount of distance and time available that Corbin’s missed fly above was.
Balls hit right at an outfielder are the hardest to judge, but Alek made the correct turn immediately and was able to get back to his spot (almost too far) and make the play. The second play (from 2024) will show where he has to turn his body toward left field instead of right. The catch probability, according to Statcast, was 70% compared to 90% on the previous clip.
As an aside, I was at the game that this last clip was taken from, and I was wowed watching it live. On balls that are hit hard and I’m not quite sure if they’re homers or not, I shift my eyes to the outfielder. Alek already had his head down and was pumping back into position by the time my eyes were on him and then he shifted down and cruised right under the ball making it look much more routine than it actually was.
Corbin’s reads aren’t as quick as Alek’s, but that doesn’t matter too much when his speed can bail him out on balls to his side or in front of him. It only comes back to bite him when he can’t sprint with his eyes on the ball. That’s not a knock. Making plays like that is hard. It’s why when we see center fielders who can make plays like this look easy, it’s a nearly religious experience. It’s my firm belief that the true showmen who wow us in centerfield are born, not made. They have an innate ability to feel where the ball is going before it’s even hit. Any of you former center fielders out there feel free to chime in, but I don’t believe Corbin would ever be a truly smooth centerfielder. He just doesn’t have the it factor.
Looking back to the table of Corbin’s Directional Outs Above Average, he wasn’t only bad moving back in center field. He had issues moving laterally toward first base when playing in right field. What’s different about moving left as a right fielder? The wall is usually closing in. This is one aspect of Corbin Carroll’s defense in the corner outfield that I think is mental and can be coached out of him. Here’s an example of a particularly egregious example of Corbin misplaying a ball back and to his left.
That was tough to watch, but so I don’t leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, here is Corbin doing a better job along the wall, though still not as confident as you’d maybe like.
Making plays into the wall is hard. There’s a reason those types of plays get labeled as ‘Web Gems’ and they are played on SportsCenter. Corbin Carroll just doesn’t look like he’s comfortable making those plays and it has cost the team runs more often than it should. I fully admit that I don’t think I’d have the mental fortitude to run into a wall after a flyball, and I think I’d much rather Corbin let a ball bounce off the wall and allow a run or two than have him bust his foot or shoulder and be out for months. Still, I believe that he could make his already stout corner outfield defense bulletproof if he improved his comfort around the warning track and wall. Perhaps that comfort will come if he’s able to stick in one position for the bulk of the year.
I’ve spent a lot of time bashing Corbin’s lack of ability as a center fielder and even nitpicked some of his corner outfield play, but I want to finish how I started: Corbin will win a gold glove. It won’t be in center, but it can certainly happen in left or right field. His arm will never be a cannon like Ichiro or Betts, but his range in right field is so elite that he will post very strong numbers if he ever gets to play 1,000+ innings in one position. He’s already a consensus top-3 RF in all of baseball according to the metrics with only playing just over 600 innings there.
Hopefully Corbin doesn’t have to cover down in centerfield for more than a few games during the coming season. Organizationally, Carroll should be below Alek, Jake, and Barrosa in the centerfield pecking order. The numbers and eye test both bear out that he is an excellent fielder, especially when he doesn’t have to cover all the extra acreage behind him when playing center. I’ll leave you with a few final frames showcasing his elite speed and range. I’m looking forward to watching Jim’s reel of these when Corbin wins his gold glove.
If you’d like to look further at Corbin’s (or any other player’s) defensive metrics, I can’t recommend Baseball Savant enough. Links to video every play he was a part of, plots of locations of outs made and hits allowed, and catch probabilities for every play.