Decisions will have to be made in the coming weeks
Last year, the Diamondbacks did not have too many major changes to make at the end of the campaign, with the vast bulk of their roster also under team control for this season. That isn’t going to be the case this winter, with some significant choices which will have to be made, in terms of options, arbitration decision and free-agency. I’ll be looking at each of these in turn, trying to figure out what might happen, and what the implications might be for the 2025 version of the D-backs. We start with options, which come in a variety of flavors: team, player and mutual. As you can imagine, the specific kind does have a major impact on what might go do, so let’s review all the players who fall into this category.
Eugenio Suarez: $15 million team option, $2 million buyout
On June 11th, Suarez was hitting .197/.263/.312 for an OPS of just .575. That’s the fifth-WORST figure to that point by a D-back ever (min. 150 PA), and never mind 2025, the question was whether he’d last 2024. The rest is history. Eugenio had one of the best second halves in franchise history, ending with a career high for runs scored, and reaching 100 RBI for the first time since 2019. With no proven alternative at the hot corner in the farm system, the option price is very reasonable for a player worth 3-4 wins this season. Be extra nice if Suarez played at his second-half level for all next year, but I’d settle for a little less streakiness. Likely result: option exercised.
Jordan Montgomery: $22.5 million player option
If this has been a single-season deal, it would have been bad enough. Because Montgomery was one of the worst one-year pitchers in franchise history, while earning $20 million. You might have to go back to Russ Ortiz’s 2005 to find a comparable combo of high salary and low performance. But the bad news is, to get Jordan to sign here, the team had to offer him a player option. At the time that seemed a reasonable risk, more likely to be Montgomery leaving after having a good year. But would anyone give him $22.5 million elsewhere, after a 6.23 ERA that got him demoted to mop-up relief? Despite Ken Kendrick bad-mouthing the pitcher, he’s going nowhere. Likely result: option exercised.
Merrill Kelly: $7 million team option, $1 million buyout
Kelly may have been Mike Hazen’s best signing ever. Over the six years he has been here – one of them the partial 2020 season – Merrill has been worth 13.5 bWAR (he is now #6 on the franchise all-time list), while earning only around $30 million. He did only make 12 starts this year, missing most of the campaign with a strained shoulder, and experienced an ongoing issue of cramp at Chase Field, though it’s hoped neither of those will impact his health next year. There was a bit of a red flag, in that his FIP was 4.25, the highest since his rookie campaign in 2019, and he’ll turn 36 next Monday. But you would be hard pushed to find a better bet on the free-agent market. Likely result: option exercised.
Joc Pederson: $14 million mutual option, $3 million buyout
Mutual options are rarely exercised: a 2017 study found only 4% were. If a player performs well enough for the team to be interested, they are typically better off testing the free-agent market. Pederson did everything the team wanted when they signed him, more than repaying the $9.5 million salary by batting .275 with 23 homers in only 367 at-bats. I believe he did have a glove, he just never had to use it. He was certainly ended up being the best of the winter candidates for our DH role, as jeffern51 called it at the time. But his success means the player will probably be looking to sell his services elsewhere. Note: the buyout is only paid if the team declines. Likely result: option declined by player.
Scott McGough, $4 million mutual option, $750,000 buyout
After the success of Kelly, Hazen sought to find another nugget in the Korean leagues with the signing of McGough. This one, however, did not work out. Though he managed to pick up nine saves, he was only replacement level in 2023, and well below it (-1.1 bWAR) this season, leading to him being sent to the minors on three separate occasions. So far, he has had a 5.59 ERA, along with a 5.19 FIP. Scott has his 35th birthday on Halloween, so further upside seems limited. It’s not an expensive deal, but the team could likely get production of the same level from a prospect earning league-minimum. That seems to be probably what they do. Likely result: option declined by team.
Randall Grichuk, $6 million mutual option, $500,000 buyout
Grichuk was signed to be the platoon partner for Pederson, and while on the minor end of that pairing (170 fewer PA), held up his end very well, hitting .291 with a 140 OPS+. Between them, they gave Arizona the third-highest OPS at DH in the majors, a vast uptick on last year’s 27th place. He also played in the outfield, and racked up a total of 2.2 bWAR. $6m would be a very good deal for his services in a similar role next year. The problem is, he’ll get better offers elsewhere, and will be out to make up for being severely underpaid this season (just $1.5 million). While I’d be more than happy to have him back, I think we’ll be wishing him the best in his future endeavors. Likely result: option declined by player.
So, there’s my expectations. We’ll know the results shortly after the end of the World Series, and the team can then begin to build for next year. What do you reckon? Think anyone will zig rather than zag? If so, tell us who and why in the comments…