The Walker-shaped elephant in the room
The options and arbitration choices this winter don’t provide much in the way of real difficulty. The results from both are likely to be quite predictable, though obviously, the impact of Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk leaving the team, for example, is going to be significant. But there are very likely to be others. Let’s start by discussing the four players that finished the year on the Diamondbacks, who are eligible to be free agents: how might the team look at replacing them? They are in increasing order of 2024 cost to the D-backs.
Kevin Newman: $946,240
I suspect Newman might end up being a nominee for Unsung Hero when we reach the SnakePit awards. Released by the Reds at the end of last year, he signed a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training. Kevin invoked an opt-out clause late in March, but then quickly resigned with the D-backs. When Geraldo Perdomo hit the IL early on, Newman came up, and stayed while more heralded – or, at least, better-paid – players fell, such as Jace Peterson. He ended up playing 111 times and being worth 1.4 fWAR/2.2 bWAR, starting games at all four infield positions. It’s that flexibility which made him particularly useful, and would need replacing in 2025.
If we’re looking for an alternative utility infielder, the obvious candidate would be Blaze Alexander, who literally blazed across the D-backs firmament like a shooting start, with a .941 OPS in 22 April games. But it lasted about as long too. He had a .526 OPS thereafter, until he was sent down at the end of June. The team probably don’t want to start jerking prospects like Jordan Lawlar around the infield, so I can see the D-backs either re-signing Newman, or a Newman-like player. A moderate increase in salary might be in order: I could see him re-signing for about $1.5-2 million. His offense might regress (BABIP of .322), but the defense will continue to play.
Josh Bell: $2,250,000
Bell joined the team in a trade deadline deal, coming from the Marlins in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. It was a necessary move at the time, with Christian Walker having gone on the IL with an oblique strain. Bell filled in more than adequately in Walker’s absence, to the point he stayed on the team after Walker’s return (this coming after roster expansion probably helped). It was the third consecutive time Bell had been dealt at the deadline, having gone from Cleveland to Miami last year, and Washington to San Diego in 2022. The Marlins paid most of the $6 million owed to Bell at the time of the trade, which is why it’s ranked down here.
Typically, this would just be your typical deadline rental, team and players going their separate way. But as we’ll see in a bit, Arizona will have a vacancy on the roster, for which Bell could end up a decent fit. He’s not going to get anything like the 2-year, $33 million contract the Guardians gave him, coming off his Silver Slugger win in 2022. Bell had an OPS+ of 99 and was basically replacement level over the life of that contract. But he definitely performed better for Arizona, performing credibly on both sides of the ball, and would offer some switch-hitting thump to go alongside Ketel Marte. Probably not the first choice, but maybe not the worst one either.
Paul Sewald: $7,350,000
Just another example in the sad saga of overpaid Diamondbacks relievers. It was going well too: after missing the first month, through the end of June, he had an 0.54 ERA over 18 games, and was 11/11 in saves. Then the wheels fell off. Three blown saves in a week, he was removed from the closer’s role by the end of July, and had a 7.04 ERA the rest of the way, before his season ended mid-September with a neck issue. It seems likely he will be allowed to walk as a free-agent, his time in Arizona ending with an ERA+ of 105, which is… okay, though considering his price, both to acquire from Seattle, and then in subsequent payroll, we definitely wanted better.
As for replacing Sewald, the closer’s position in 2025 is going to be an interesting one, and probably deserves its own deeper dive. No fewer than ten different pitchers got saves for Arizona this year, tying a franchise record. But the main candidates all appear in-house: Kevin Ginkel, Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk and Ryan Thompson. Will one of them be anointed to the position by Torey Lovullo? Or will we see a situation like the team had in September, where every single save went to a different pitcher? [Admittedly, that included one by Jordan Montgomery!] None of them will be anywhere near as expensive as Sewald, and I do not see the team finding a replacement who is earning big.
Christian Walker: $10,900,000
And here we are. It’s odd to think Walker is only just hitting free-agency for the first time, considering he’ll turn 34 right around Opening Day. It’s because through the end of 2018, at age 27, he still had less than a hundred major-league PAs, and service time commensurate to that, having been blocked everywhere he played. But since then, he has been one of the best first basemen – especially defensively – in the majors. Over the past three years he has been worth more bWAR than the Mets’ Pete Alonso (11.4 vs. 10.2), while earning less than half as much. That looks set to change this winter, with Spotrac projecting Walker to get a three-year deal worth just shy of $67 million.
Figuring out what to do there is going to be Mike Hazen’s toughest issue. Payroll guru Jack posted his usual good dig into the situation recently, and concluded the team will have about $28 million to spend, presuming payroll remains at the same level it ended 2024. That isn’t just for the players here, of course. It also includes replacing those like Pederson and Grichuk, who as discussed previously, are likely to decline their options here. The math doesn’t add up, unless Montgomery has a rush of blood to he head, and decides to opt out of his $22.5 million option for next year. Otherwise, the team is going to have to economize somewhere on the roster, and settle for one or more lower-cost alternatives.