There will be some substantial increases coming for certain players
To be honest, if most of the option decisions largely make themselves, that might be even more the case for the arbitration-related ones. But it’s still worth taking a look, because there will be an impact on the salary bill for next season, and that’s going to factor into how much money the team has available for additions. Let’s start with the traditional quick overview. Players who end the season with (more or less) more than three years of service time but less than six, are eligible for arbitration. Until they have reached three years, the team is under no obligation to pay them more than MLB minimum, but typically for the next three years after that, the dance becomes a little more complex.
Basically, the team and player have to come to a mutually agreed salary for the season in question. This will depend on how much service time they have and their performance in previous seasons. In most cases this negotiation comes to a figure acceptable to both. But if it does not, then the player and team submit their opinion of a fair figure in mid January. A neutral arbitrator then hears the case from each, typically shortly before pitchers and catchers report, and must pick one or the other figure – no splitting is permitted. That then becomes the player’s salary for the next year. This can be a lot: last year, Vlad Guerrero Jr. was awarded a $19.9 million wage, after winning his case with Toronto.
Nobody on the D-backs will make that much. But MLB Trade Rumors have had a good track in predicting salary amounts, and has Arizona expected to spend $28 million across their eight eligible candidates for 2025. These are not required. If the team does not want to pay a player who is not under a previously signed contract, they can be “non-tendered”, which effectively cuts a player loose. They are then free to sign with whoever they want, for whatever they can get. Last year, for example, Arizona non-tendered Kyle Lewis, who’d come to the D-backs from Seattle, rather than pay an expected salary of $1.61m. The 2020 Rookie of the Year never signed, and now appears to be out of baseball entirely.
Is there anyone likely to fall into the same category for Arizona? Probably not. Below are the eight Diamondbacks players who are eligible this winter, together with their service time in brackets, current salary and the MLBTR estimates for what they’ll get in arbitration, either by mutual agreement or as the result of a hearing. They’re in descending order of expected 2025 salary.
- Zac Gallen (5.100): $10.01 MM > $14.1MM
- Ryan Thompson (4.095): $1.35 MM > $2.9MM
- A.J. Puk (4.124): $1.8 MM > $2.6MM
- Kevin Ginkel (4.033): $1.23 MM > $2.3MM
- Geraldo Perdomo (3.015): $786K > $2.1MM
- Joe Mantiply (4.029): $925K > $1.6MM
- Pavin Smith (3.015): $740K > $1.6MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.076): $757K > $800K
You can see that, while service time is a factor, other things come into play. What role does a player have? Are they an everyday starter? How did they perform? Was their health good? These all go into the equation. Naturally, players tend to think they are worth more than teams do, hence the arbitration process, where they get to explain their reasoning to a neutral bystander. It’s quite surprising to realize that someone like Pavin, who made his debut all the way back in 2020, is now going through the process for the first time. But he has exactly the same amount of service as Geraldo, because the greater time Smith spent in the minors does not count towards reaching arbitration.
You’ll see half the potential Arizona bullpen on Opening Day next season – Ginkel, Mantiply, Puk and Thompson – are all at exactly the same point, in their second year of arbitration. But all together, they are still only expected to earn $8.6 million, which is likely round about what a “proven closer” (quotes used advisedly) would get for a one-year contract. The only real question would appear to be Nelson, who missed almost the entire 2024 campaign, after having Thoracic Outlet Surgery. That explains the minimal increase in his salary for next year, not having thrown a pitch anywhere since April 22nd. I’ve heard nothing at all since the procedure, though he was always expected to miss the rest of the season.
If he’s deemed likely to be healthy for spring, or even healthy-ish, then the team will still want to tender him. He has posted a 123 OPS+ for Arizona in 122 appearances, since being a waiver-wire pick from the Indians in 2021, which is pretty good [While we may cast envious eyes at other bullpens who have turned Arizona castoffs into gold, it works both ways. Thompson was also a waiver-wire pick and Mantiply had just 5.2 innings of major-league experience when he was signed by the D-backs] Though unlike minor-league options, time spent on the Injured List does count as service time, even if you’re off the 40-man roster. So Nelson will continue to accrue time, unless he is non-tendered, regardless of health.
Even if he ends up being non-tendered, it’s hardly going to move the needle much at that price. The majority of the arbitration payment is going to go to Gallen, who is projected to earn more than the other seven players combined. It might have been higher, had he been able to match his 2023 totals. While his win percentage was fractionally higher, courtesy of his 14-6 record, Zac ended up throwing 62 fewer innings, and punching out 64 fewer batters. Those numbers will factor into any arbitration case, as he heads into what looks likely to be his final season before testing free-agency.
All told this represents about an extra ten million dollars for the eight players over their cost in 2024. That’s not a negligible amount, though is still relatively small beer compared to the costs we’ll be looking at in the final installment. Replacing or re-signing the Arizona players who will be lost to free agency once the World Series is over.