Early defensive miscues dig a hole to deep for the D-backs to climb out of and take playoff hopes out of our own control.
I don’t believe that many baseball games are won or lost in the first inning. I don’t think this game was lost in the first inning. The fact is, though, that Merrill Kelly should have given up no runs in the 1st inning if Ketel didn’t whiff on Manny Machado’s ground ball to his left with a runners on the corner and one out. It wasn’t an easy play to make, but Ketel has been one of the best defensive second baseman in the Majors this year, and it’s a play that I’m sure Ketel thinks he should’ve/could’ve made. But he didn’t make it. Instead of the inning ending with 0 Padres’ runs scored, Merrill threw 18 more pitches and allowed a total of 4 Padres to cross home plate (with another ‘assist’ later in the inning from Ketel’s poor defense). From end of the Padres’ half of the first to the end of the Padres’ half of the ninth, the D-backs outscored the Friars 3-1.
After that unfortunate first inning, Merrill and the bullpen allowed a single run, scattered six hits and one walk and rang up 8 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks pitched well enough to win this game. The offense and defense is what cost the D-backs this one. The offense didn’t create/capitalize on enough opportunities and the defense (Pavin Smith’s lack of any sort of range was VERY apparent in this game, as well) didn’t make the plays necessary to win. Focus is needed in September baseball, and the Diamondbacks as a team came up wanting.
Also like to give a hat tip to the crowd at Chase tonight. Seemed like they were loud and engaged, always great to see. Keep it up for the next 2 games!
Hopefully this isn’t my final recap of the 2024 season, but if it is, thanks for reading this year! It’s been a pleasure contributing every week to this awesome fan base! As always, if you’d like a more detailed recap of this one, continue on, otherwise feel free to jump down to the bells and whistles!
San Diego’s hit machine Luis Arraez got things started with a high pop fly that was absolutely perfectly placed between Pavin and Corbin in right-center to drop in for a double. Arraez advanced to third on a sharp ground out to Ketel that Marte seemed to awkwardly stab at but come up with. The awkward defense was quickly brought back to my mind when, after a HBP set up a double play opportunity that could get him out of the inning, Manny Machado hit a sharp ground ball to Ketel’s glove side and he made another awkward stab but this time came up empty, allowing Arraez to score and Profar advanced from first to third. The official scorer ruled it a hit for Machado, but there is no way you can convince me that isn’t a play that Ketel makes more than 9 times in 10.
After a soft-serve RBI single to center by the next Padre hitter made the score 2-0 Padres, Merrill got another potential double play ball to Geraldo Perdomo, but Ketel had trouble getting the ball out of his glove on the transition and then compounded his inning of misfortune by deciding to throw to first anyway and uncorked a ICBM way over Christian Walker’s head and into the stands, automatically scoring another run and advancing the hitter to second. Now with the score at 3-0, a walk and a single plated the fourth and final run of the inning before Merrill finally got a swing-and-miss strikeout of the Padres 9-hole hitter to get out of the first.
After a brutal top-half of the first, the Diamondbacks really needed something to show signs of life. Corbin Carroll provided a jolt with a leadoff homer halfway up the right field bleachers.
The reaction in the dugout seemed somewhat muted, but in my mind, that was a HUGE dam to stop to the tidal wave of momentum that the Padres rode to a big early lead. Ketel followed up the leadoff homer with a patient walk and advanced to second on a Joc HBP. The first three Snakes’ batters had now reached in response to the Padres 4-spot first, and Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel had productive outs that led to Ketel scoring on a deep sac fly before the inning came to a close. The Diamondbacks found themselves down 4-2 after 1 inning, but momentum felt like it had at least swung back to the center, if not all the way back to the hometown crowd’s side.
Merrill Kelly kept the momentum on the home side with a perfect inning that included strikeouts of Tatis and Profar.
Geno Suarez roped the first pitch he saw from Padres’ starter Yu Darvish into the D-backs bullpen, but it was JUST foul. Geno stayed aggressive in the at bat, pulling a couple more pitches foul down the third base line before whiffing on a Sweeper for the first out of the inning. Gabi did what Gabi does, pushing a fastball over the second baseman for an opposite field single. Unfortunately, Gabi would stay right there as Gerry and Corbin would each strike out to send the game to the third.
The Mainstay definitely seemed to have found his groove after being let down by his defense in the first inning. He tossed another perfect inning in the third, getting an infield pop out, lazy pop fly, and a strike out to bring the Snakes back to the plate.
Too bad for the D-backs, though, that Darvish had also seemed to find his groove. While not quite as efficient/accurate as Merrill since the first, Darvish was not looking like he was going to give up any more runs easily. After striking out the side in the second, the D-backs showed improvement in only striking out once, but all three batters were relatively easily dispatched.
Kelly looked like he was on his way to his third perfect inning the second time through the Padres’ lineup, but with two outs, a soft liner that was barely over the leaping Gerry Perdomo set up Luis Arraez for another ‘seeing eye’ fly ball that perfectly split Corbin and Pavin. This time, his perfectly placed hit went for a triple and scored a run. Fernando Tatis Jr. then came up and hit a rocket that looked like it might add another run for the boys in brown, but Ketel made a jumping snag to rob Tatis of an RBI and end the inning.
The Diamondbacks half of the 4th started off promisingly with a ringing single up the middle by Gurriel. Pavin Smith came up and gave one a ride to the dead center field that sent Jackson Merrill backpedaling to the track where he finally came to a stop and squeezed the first out of the inning in front of the 407’ sign on the wall. After the first two hitters in the inning made hard contact, there was some hope by this recapper that maybe Geno could get a hold of one and the Snakes could again answer the Padres score in the top of the inning, but Suarez GIDP’d in 3-6-3 fashion to end the inning and keep the Padres lead 5-2 after 4 innings.
The Padres’ heart of the order came up and Kelly was mostly back to his dominant ways, getting a soft ground out and 2 strikeouts to bookend a Jackson Merrill ground rule double into the pool area. After a very inauspicious start to the game that is not officially, but I’d say completely, the fault of the D-backs defense, Merrill rebounded nicely and was sitting at 82 pitches after 5 innings of work.
The Diamondbacks hitters did a great job in the fifth inning of making You Darvish work, but they couldn’t make anything come of it. It was a 23 pitch inning for the San Diego right hander where he walked Corbin and Ketel with 2 out, but Joc couldn’t capitalize on the opportunity and the Padres’ 3-run lead continued to hold after 5 innings.
Merrill Kelly came back out for the sixth and would not get pulled due to cramping or ineffectiveness. At the beginning of the inning, Joe Mantiply began warming in the bullpen, indicating that if the top of the Padres’ order came up, Merrill would be relieved. Kelly got 2 of the 3 hitters he faced out, the one exception being a David Peralta single, finishing his night with a strikeout before Joe Mantiply came in to face lefty Luis Arraez. During the final batter faced for Merrill, Kelly made the mental error of disengaging from the rubber three times, allowing Peralta a free advance to second base. This left a little bit of despair at the thought of another Padres’ run scoring due to D-back mental error, but Joe Mantiply came in and did the job, getting Luis Arraez to golf a breaking ball inches above the dirt softly to Ketel to retire the side.
Yu Darvish would also not survive the sixth. Christian Walker hit a frozen rope to right, but it was more or less right at Tatis for the first out of the frame. Darvish then hit his second batter of the night, this time Gurriel got the glancing blow off his elbow guard and that chased Darvish from the ball game. One of the many elite Padre bullpen arms came in, this one named Jeremiah Estrada. Pavin Smith stuck out looking for the second out of the inning, but Lourdes was able to advance to second on a wild pitch during the at bat to have a runner is scoring position for D-backs RBI leader Geno Suarez. Geno added to his RBI tally with a groundball that somehow snuck under the glove of all-world third baseman Manny Machado. Now with the score 5-3, Machado gave the Diamondbacks another gift when he whiffed on a bouncer hit directly at him by Gabi. The misplay resulted in the tying runs standing at 2nd and 3rd and Perdomo coming to the plate. Estrada bore down on Gerry, though, and the righty reliever induced a weak ground out to second the end the inning, but Snakes’ deficit had been decreased and the home crowd was definitely engaged and being heard!
Ryan Thompson had some shaky appearances recently, so his emergence from the bullpen in the 7th to face the Padres’ 2-3-4 hitters was a little scary, but Ryan did the business. He overmatched all 3 of the Tatis, Profar, and Machado to send the fans to the Stretch.
Corbin and Ketel both flew out, Ketel more assertively than Corbin, but that brought up pinch hitter Randal Grichuk to face the Padre bullpen lefty in place of Joc. Grichuk demolished a fastball off the wall to the left of the 413’ mark in left-center field for a 2-out double. The Padres made a pitching change to bring out a righty to face Christian Walker and the move paid off for San Diego when Walker struck out swinging on 3 pitches.
AJ Puk came in to face the lefties Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth with right hander Xander Bogaerts in between. Puk got the first 2 outs on 4 pitches, but then gave up a double down the right field line to Jake Cronenworth. Lefty David Peralta was the scheduled hitter to come up with 2 outs and the runner on second, but the Padres pulled him in favor of righty Donovan Solano to regain the platoon advantage in the AB. Puk didn’t throw much of anything close to Solano, walking him on five pitches. That brought up the Padre catcher, Kyle Higashioka, who worked a full count before skying a ball deep to left, but drifted into the notch between the home bullpen and the stands that might have been the difference between it being a knockout 3-run homer or the harmless fly out that it was.
With six outs left to try and get at least 2 runs, the Diamondbacks came up in the 8th and got 3 outs and 0 runs. Geno had a 2-out single for his second hit of the game, but 3 groundouts around him brought the game to the 9th inning and the D-backs still down by 2.
Kevin Ginkel got the ball in the ninth and had the top of the Padres’ order due to face him. Arraez took the first pitch he saw and rolled it perfectly down the third base line for a leadoff double. Ginkel then buckled down and got a fly out (on which Arraez tagged and advanced to third), strikeout, and another fly out to bring up the good guys for one last crack at this one.
The Diamondbacks scheduled hitters for the 9th were Domo, Corbin and Ketel, so this certainly seemed like as good an opportunity to make up 2 runs as we were gonna get. Perdomo worked an 8-pitch at bat to leadoff but ended up with a fly out to center. Corbin came up and earned a 6-pitch walk to bring the tying run to the plate in the form of Ketel Marte. Marte fell behind 0-2 before working the count even and then watched what should have been Ball 3 cross the plate below his knees but he got rung on Strike 3 instead. Now with 2 outs and the scheduled hitter being righty Randal Grichuk, Torey made the call to put Alek Thomas in the left-hand batter’s box with 2 outs. In his first at bat in the Majors since August 13th (when he was demoted, not injured), Alek did what we’ve unfortunately become used to him doing this year: rolling over into a 4-3 putout to end the game.
Loss Probability
Courtesy FanGraphs
Players of the Game
Merrill Kelly had a rough final line, but as alluded to in the open, I believe that four of his five official Earned Runs all hang on the shoulders of Ketel Marte. After that brutal first inning, Kelly stopped the bleeding and allowed a single run, struck out eight, and pitched into the sixth inning without having to leave due to cramping.
The Bullpen also came through with 3 1⁄3 innings of shutout ball. No strikeouts, but their ability to give the offense an opportunity to win the game tonight is nothing to sneeze at. AJ Puk was oddly the only reliever to have a rough outing, but Mantiply, Thompson and Ginkel were excellent. Well done, gents.
Comment of the Night
Another well attended GDT tonight, with is to be expected with so much riding on the outcome. A total of 372 comments at time of publishing, and COTN goes to Imstillhungry95 for his respectful request to the Friars hitters:
Coming Up
The D-backs face the Padres in the penultimate game of the regular season tomorrow at 5:10pm Arizona time. Eduardo Rodriguez was announced as the probable starter for the D-backs tomorrow, but good ol’ TBD is slated to start for the Padres.
Scoreboard Watch
Not the worst possible outcome across the scoreboard today, but it wasn’t a great day, either. The Braves beat the Royals, who clinched their own playoff spot thanks to a Twins’ loss today. The Mets lost in Milwaukee, so that was good, and that has created a three-way tie for the last two spots in the Wild Card. Unfortunately, that means the D-backs are now on the outside looking in if the postseason were to start today. It also means, if I’m not mistaken, that the D-backs do not control their own destiny any longer. Please, if I’m wrong, correct me so everyone has the best information. Good night and Go D-backs!