A new pitcher tonight.
Roster moves
The Arizona Diamondbacks made the following roster moves. The D-backs’ 40-man roster remains at 39.
- Recalled RHP Cristian Mena (No. 64) from Triple-A Reno
- Optioned to Triple-A Reno after Tuesday’s game: RHP Gavin Hollowell
Cristian Mena will be making his major-league debut tonight, becoming Arizona’s youngest starting pitcher since 2012, when Mena was aged… nine. I want to use Preston’s comment from Snake Bytes this morning, and give a scouting report on the newest D-back. We’ll see how long Jordan Montgomery’s stay on the IL ends up being. With no off-days this side of the All-Star break for the D-backs, we will certainly need another starter to cover that slot in the rotation. Anyway, over to Preston.
Mena is 21, so he is young. He will not turn 22 until December. He throws four pitches, although Statcast sometimes reads his fastball as a four-seam and sometimes as a sinker. (Similarly, there is some cross-over between his curveball and slider, but he throws both.)
Fastball: has been reported up to 96, but has topped out at 95 this year. In his most recent start, it averaged 93.2 MPH. It is inconsistent; sometimes it has good carry, but most of the time when it has the higher spin rate and therefore better carry (less vertical break) it also has less horizontal break, which makes it a less-effective pitch. It is similar in many ways to Slade Cecconi’s fastball, but a tick slower on average.
Changeup: Mena’s changeup is probably his least effective pitch, right now. Based on the Statcast data, his release point is lower than his fastball; perhaps not enough lower that he is tipping the pitch, but probably enough lower to not tunnel well. It also doesn’t have a lot of difference in velocity from his fastball, averaging about 90 MPH. While pitchers can do well with a changeup at a similar velocity to their fastball (Zack Greinke, for example) most do not. Furthermore, his changeup has similar movement to his fastball; more vertical movement (substantially more than his best fastballs) but not much more horizontal movement. If his fastball is producing good carry, that probably makes his changeup a better weapon.
Slider: Mena’s slider may not be his best pitch, but it may be his most important pitch. The amount of break he can generate is similar to Ryne Nelson’s, and generally at similar velocity. His slider probably plays off of his changeup the best; they are the closest release points (per Statcast) and come out at similar speeds, but break in opposite directions. When they break. Sometimes the shape of the slider gets a little too close to the shape of his curveball (or Statcast registers his hanging curves as sliders)
Curveball: This is where Mena shines. Or it was. This year, while adjusting to the PCL, it’s been a bit of an adventure. It’s a 12-6 curve, something rarely seen these days. But he hasn’t been generating as much vertical break as would be liked. He does better away from Reno (unsurprisingly, his slider is also better away from Reno.) But this has moved from an above-average pitch to an average pitch this year, or maybe slightly below average. Given the contrast between the slider and his fastball and changeup, the slider may be the way to go.
I expect Mena to go 70-80 pitches if all goes well, and to use the fastball mostly as a pitch to change the eye level of hitters, at the top of the zone or above. If he throws more than 20 fastballs, I will be surprised. He’ll probably throw about 15 fastballs, 15-20 changeups, and throw breaking stuff for the rest.
One other word of warning: Mena has struggled, mightily, against left handed bats this season. They are slashing .310/.411/.612 off of him, and have hit 11 of 15 home runs he’s allowed. [Jim: Despite this, the team is NOT going with an opener tonight, to minimize Mena’s exposure to Ohtani and Freeman. Let’s hope that works out!]