The classic saying of “progression is not linear” applies in all phases. Every prospect takes a different path to get to the big leagues. In a way, this applies to Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar. The 2021 first-round pick has actually already made his MLB debut in September 2023 but has not yet returned.
Diamondbacks Prospect Jordan Lawlar Looking to Burst on the Scene
Injury History
Lawlar has been dealing with a myriad of injuries since being drafted. Shortly after the 2021 Draft, he suffered a torn labrum, which can be a concerning injury for hitters. However, when healthy, he was producing at the levels that you want to see. As a 19-year-old at Low-A, he slashed .351/.447/.603 (165 wRC+) along with a double-digit walk rate and manageable strikeout rate. Further, he added 24 stolen bases across just 44 games.
Cruising through the lower levels of the minor leagues, the young shortstop reached Double-A as a 19-year-old. There have been a few exceptional hitters over the years who can say the same which includes Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Ken Griffey Jr. to name a few (Jackson Chourio was 18 at Double-A). Moreover, in 2023, Lawlar was in the midst of making a significant improvement, cutting his strikeout rate to 15% while maintaining the other positive elements in his profile. That earned him the early September cup of coffee which did not go too well.
Across 34 plate appearances in 2023, Lawlar had a miserable -5 wRC+. He struck out 32.4% of the time and had only one hard-hit ball. We see top prospects come up to get a brief taste of the big leagues and get chewed up all the time. Lawlar now had a full healthy offseason to gear up and break the Opening Day roster. Then, the injury bug hit again and he ended up having less than 100 plate appearances total in 2024.
The Skills
Lawlar does everything pretty well. While his hit tool is below average, he projects well in the power and speed departments. His fluid and twitchy athleticism also enables him to be a plus defender and the ability to stick at shortstop. There is a chance that his batting average lags behind early in his career as he navigates big league pitching. That factored in with his subpar hit tool will likely lead to some extra swing and miss.
A common theme across Lawlar’s batted ball profile is his propensity to pull the ball. He has at least a 40% pull rate in nearly every season in his professional career. Lawlar likes to get his power to the pull side, which affects his strikeout rate. His true power ceiling in the majors will become known as he gets more experience. As more exit velocity numbers are present and he gets further away from his wave of injuries, more will be uncovered.
An encouraging element of Lawlar’s offensive tools is his plate discipline. Hitters who don’t strike out and take their walks seem to raise the floor of their inevitable slumps just a bit. In the case of Lawlar, his Chase% for the small samples available are all excellent. Lawlar’s patience is a staple of his minor-league production and will be a pivotal piece of his development against big-league pitching. And getting on base in any way shape or form allows him to show off his 99th percentile sprint speed.
2025 Outlook
First and foremost, Jordan Lawlar shows up to spring training healthy. Allow him to take the Opening Day shortstop position and not look back. Still only 22 years old, Lawlar could be a really exciting player in 2025. It could be rocky early on, as he has missed tons of time. The power output will ultimately be the determinant of his rookie season ceiling. It could be an Anthony Volpe-like rookie season.
“Back, back, back … wayyyy back!”
MLB’s No. 9 prospect Jordan Lawlar (@Dbacks) lofts his third homer in 20 @LIDOMRD games: pic.twitter.com/fNJF6i60XJ
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 18, 2024
The swing looks good after all the injuries as he works back this offseason. Jordan Lawlar is still a very talented prospect, and now is the time to buy back in.
Photo Credit: © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
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