Let’s look at their chances
There was a perception that the Diamondbacks’ defense took something of a step back this season overall. Some of the metrics seems to back this up: UZR declined from 33.7 to 27.3, while DRS really collapsed, going from +46 to +14. However, not all the numbers agree: Statcast’s Outs Above Average actually increased, going from +30 to +34. And that is also reflected in an increase in Gold Glove nominations. Last year, we had three: Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno and Alek Thomas. This time around, Walker and Moreno are back in the frame, and while we lost Thomas, we gained both Lourdes Gurriel and Jake McCarthy in the outfield, as well as Ketel Marte at second. That’s the most of any team in the majors.
Let’s take a look at each category, and see how the Arizona nominees stack up against their competition, with a little promo reel featuring some of their best defensive plays this season. The winners will be announced November 3, on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight, beginning at 5:30 pm Arizona time.
C: Gabriel Moreno
Also nominated: Patrick Bailey, Giants; Will Smith, Dodgers. Moreno will have the incumbent’s advantage, having won in 2023. But injury limited him to 83 starts this year, compared to 101 for Bailey and 117 for Smith. His ability to control the running-game also dropped off, with his caught stealing percentage dropping from 39% to 29%. Smith was at 33% and Bailey 27%. But by the advanced fielding metrics, this would appear to be Bailey’s to lose. He was particularly strong in pitch framing, Fangraphs having him worth 23 runs (!) there. This probably helped him come out top among all National League catchers in DRS, FRM and Def. Likely outcome: Bailey dethrones Gaby.
1B: Christian Walker
Also nominated: Bryce Harper, Phillies; Matt Olson, Braves. As at catcher, Walker is the reigning champion, and also played less than the other candidates (Olson didn’t just appear in every single game for Atlanta, or start every single game; he played 162 complete games at first). This one is very much a case of “Pick your defensive metric”. By DRS, Olson is the runaway leader at +14, compared to +7 for Walker and +5 for Harper. However, UZR and Def strongly disagree: both have Christian on top, despite the lower amount of playing time he saw, with Harper in second and Olson some way behind. Indeed, Walker was the only NL 1B to be positive for Def. Likely outcome: Walker retains the title.
2B: Ketel Marte
Also nominated: Bryson Stott, Phillies; Brice Turang, Brewers. The Marlins’ Otto Lopez might feel hard done by here, leading the league with +13.8 DEF, close to five runs better than anyone else, and ahead of the three nominees in UZR. Putting that aside, again, there’s no real consensus among the number. DRS gives it to Turang in a landslide, at +21, more than Marte (+10) and Stott (+7) combined. On the other hand, UZR and Def both rate Marte ahead of Turang, though they agree that Stott is the third-choice. It’s great to see Marte nominated, given the work he has put in., and how he has cut down on misplays. Let’s be honest: his 36 homers doesn’t hurt. Likely outcome: fingers crossed, a Marte partay.
LF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Also nominated: Ian Happ, Cubs; Brandon Marsh, Phillies. I remember at the time of the trade from Toronto, Gurriel’s defense was seen as a negative. Though he was a Gold Glove finalist twice as a Blue Jay, so go figure. Over the two seasons since coming here though, he has led the league in DRS at the position: Dave McKay, the outfielder whisperer, working his magic, I suspect. This year though, Happ (+8) is on top, and his UZR (+12.2) is also the best among the nominees. Def is the outlier, putting Marsh and Gurriel ahead of Happ. But here, it’s the Cub who is in the driving seat, having won the award at this position in both 2022 and 2023. Likely outcome: three in a row for Happ.
RF: Jake McCarthy
Also nominated: Sal Frelick, Brewers; Mike Yastrzemski, Giants. It’s a little odd to see McCarthy here. He didn’t even reach 400 innings in right, putting him 17th by playing time in the league, and almost 250 behind Corbin Carroll. The other nominees have 776 and 976.2 innings respectively, and you’ve got to feel such a gulf is going to work against McCarthy. Frelick appears to be the man to beat here. He finished top of the league in both DRS and UZR, and has the best Def among the three nominees. McCarthy’s best showing is likely by Def, where he came between Frelick and Yastrzemski, but the gap here is of the sort even Jake’s speed can’t close. Likely outcome: Sal runs away with it.
Here’s a poll for the number of Gold Gloves the team wins. Make your choice, and explain your reasoning in the comments!