Let’s Have Some Fun, My 2025 Dbacks Offseason Plan

Going into the winter meetings, I take my own stab at the Dbacks Offseason in an attempt to get them back into the playoffs in 2025.

With the winter meetings starting up and some downtime over the holidays, I thought it would be fun and could get everyone in the winter meetings spirit rolling up a good old fashioned mock offseason plan for the 2025 Arizona Diamondbacks. If you are in the mood for some downtime conversation and a long read, here ya go!

Last offseason was full of many pleasant surprises. The Dbacks had way more money to spend than anyone anticipated. They also did well to acquire the right players like Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suarez instead of the more hyped JD Martinez and Jorge Soler.

So does Hazen have anymore tricks up his sleeve this offseason? Here are a couple moves I would make that I believe adequately address this teams’ needs this offseason:

Rather than spend on Christian Walker, move Lourdes Gurriel Jr to first base- I am sure to catch some flack for this one, but hear me out. Gurriel Jr has logged 108 innings at First Base in his career and hasn’t made an error with a good borderline great UZR/150 of 9.4. Those not familiar with the stat (me included before I wrote this) basically it is just UZR scaled to an average number of chances per season. I thought this would be more insightful considering the relatively low innings total. I also think there is benefit in putting less stress on Gurriel Jr’s legs in terms of keeping him fresh and on the field could also allow his bat to play up. This move also leaves the door open for Pavin to prove his 2024 wasn’t just a fluke. If he stays hot, Gurriel can move back to the outfield.

Due to the lack of production at 1B league wide, competition and thus salary is going to be high trying to sign a first baseman. Especially since many of the candidates aren’t known for their defense anyway. Projections for Pete Alonso are in the 6+ years 170 million range and savant rates his first base value at -6. I fully believe Lourdes could out-perform that and you could see a slight increase in offensive production due to less stress on the legs. 30 games equates to about 120 PA and if his rate of 1 HR/30 PA held, your talking about an additional 4-5 home runs. Id take a .280 hitter with 20-25 home runs as a league average or slightly below first basemen any day especially in the current market.

Sign Anthony Santander for 5yrs/ 88 million- There is no way of knowing what Santander is going to command on the market, so I am going to just go with what Spotrac has him at. The Dbacks need to replace 60 home runs if they let Walker, Pederson, and Grichuk go. Because of that, Dbacks need to dig deep and spend whatever they have left on one of the most prolific sluggers on the market. He is also 3 years younger than Walker and he is a switch hitter which would pair well in the middle of the Dbacks order with fellow switch hitter Marte. There are some watchouts with Santander. The first is that he declined the qualifying offer so the Dbacks would forfeit a 2025 draft pick if they signed him. However getting Lawlar significant runway gives this team the opportunity to gain another draft pick the following year if he contends for ROY. The other downside of Santander is that he definitely had a career year in 2024 and he outperformed his expected stats, especially in home runs. Santander had one of the highest HR-xHR in baseball at 7.

Still, even if he is only a 35 HR bat, I still like him being 3 years younger than Walker, likely cheaper, and a switch hitter. Because there is so many more corner OF bats out there than 1B bats, I am betting on this being significantly lower AAV than Walker.

Trade for Pete Fairbanks- It is very hard to predict exactly who a team would want, however with the outfield depth this team has along with fringe rotation guys like Cecconi and Tommy Henry I am confident the Dbacks and the Rays could put something together while avoiding key players of the Dbacks future like Thomas or McCarthy. I prefer the idea of them competing for the CF job.

Fairbanks also offers previous closers experience in addition to having elite K% when healthy.

Start the season with Jordan Lawlar at SS and move Perdomo to second. Ketel is then allowed to DH and get some starts at 2^nd base keeping him healthy and fresh-

Another move I am going to get flack for. But once again stay with me. Perdomo was actually a below average SS in 2024 registering -1 for defensive value on baseball savant. In addition, he only provided 1 run value on offense. For a team whose strength is historically defense, I would rather see this team lean into that. Lawlar has the potential to be above average to elite at SS. I fully anticipate him struggling with the bat out of the gate, however I believe the talent is great enough this team needs to let him get at bats at the big league level while benefitting from his above average defense and elite speed. In addition, Perdomo would then very likely boost his value by being an above average 2^nd basemen. Ketel would also reduce much of the wear and tear on his legs out of the DH position. Worst case scenario, Lawlar’s K rate remains too high and he goes back to AAA and Ketel has to suck it up and Perdomo retakes the reigns at SS. Then you use the DH position to rest guys and get at bats for guys like McCathy, Thomas, Blaze, and Pavin.

Sign Clay Holmes for 3 yrs/42 million-

By not sighing Walker, Hazen can spend that money elsewhere. I really like Holmes for a couple reasons: he has previous closer experience, throws an incredibly hard sinker (96.6 mph), which leads to an elite groundball rate (64.6% which is in the 100^th percentile). For me, I think keeping the ball on the ground is one of the best things a high leverage reliever can do. And Holmes is the best at doing that in MLB. Sure he stumbled a bit in 2024 and lost the closer role to old friend Luke Weaver. However, due to his peripherals remaining solid and his strong run to finish the season, I think Holmes would be a great addition. Not to mention a backend of the bullpen of Holmes, Martinez, Puk, and Ginkel would be elite.

Conclusion- The Dbacks need to push all their chips in for 2025 due to this being likely the last season we have Gallen and Kelly while also not mortgaging their future and trading away talent. The only way to do this is to spend. According to projections, the Dbacks current estimated opening payroll sits at $147,834,249 or about $29,336,840 shy of their end of year payroll of $177,171,089 (per Ethan Hullihen on x).

If the projections from Sportrac are remotely close, signing Holmes and Santander would add just over $30 million to their payroll.

Essentially my plan revolves around getting the big bat for a lower AAV than Walker at a corner outfield spot, and getting Ketel and Lourdes more at bats by keeping them healthier and more fresh. That’s potentially 30+ more games with those bats in the lineup if they can stay healthy.

Signing the best groundballer in baseball Clay Holmes along with his closing experience also bolsters the back end of the bullpen. Remember how great it was to have elite groundballers like Webb and Zeigler? I think that plays well in this ballpark. Pete Fairbanks also offers closing experience providing he can bounce back from a disappointing injury riddled 2024. Between the group of Holmes, Fairbanks, and Martinez I believe a closer will emerge. Also allowing Puk to be used in high leverage situations against lefties.

I think running this starting rotation back out there with an improved defense and (hopefully) improved injury luck gives me confidence. Especially if you bolster the bullpen with guys like Holmes and Fairbanks. It doesn’t make sense to me to sell low and trade Jordan Montgomery given how consistent he has been over his career and the premium placed on starting pitching. Also progression of some of the young arms like Pfaadt, Nelson, and Jameson coming back from the DL really gives this rotation a lot of upside in my mind. I really believe in the group of Gallen, Kelly, Pfaadt, ERod, Nelson, Montgomery, Jameson, and Diaz and I would like to see what they can do while healthy with an improved bullpen.

Looking forward to hearing what your thoughts and ideas are!

Lineup

Carroll RF

Marte DH

Santander LF

Gurriel Jr. 1B

Suarez 3B

Thomas/McCarthy CF

Lawlar SS

Moreno C

Perdomo 2B

Rotation

Gallen

Kelly

Pfaadt

ERod

Nelson

Montgomery

Bullpen

Holmes (CL)

Martinez (CL)

Fairbanks (CL)

Puk

Ginkel

Thompson

Jameson

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