Here we go again…
In December 2023, the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to what was then the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball, while simultaneously deferring around 97% of the contract’s costs until 2034 and thereafter. They followed this up with the biggest pitching contract in baseball history, signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year deal – committing more than one billion dollars [cue Austin Powers voice] to that pair of Japanese players alone. For context, in their most recent estimate, Forbes said half the teams in baseball were worth, in their entirety, two billion dollars or less. The Los Angeles Dodgers were not among those poor franchises.
I wasn’t happy, not least at certain baseball writers trying to tell me that this, somehow, was “good for baseball.” Even Jack, bless his optimistic little heart, reckoned that “D-backs Fans Should Stop Freaking Out About the Dodgers”. To be fair, this was a more measured take, and he was right a) in pointing out the health questions in regard to the Dodgers’ pitching staff, and b) that the Diamondbacks would indeed compete for a playoff spot. The Dodgers lost 2,158 days to the injured list in 2024, the most in the majors – the D-backs lost 1,299. But despite that, LA still did not spend a single day out of first place, and their playoff odds never dropped below 92.5%. The regular season was absolutely the procession I expected.
The post-season had been the Maginot Line of the competitive balance proponents, who point out there hasn’t been a repeat World Series winner since 2000. That’s because the playoffs are a lottery, as 2023 showed when the World Series was between the Texas Rangers (=6th-best record in the regular season) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (=12th). But in 2024, the Dodgers rolled their way to an 11-5 record in the playoffs, looking increasingly strong after coming back against the woefully inept Padres. The World Series pitted them against the Yankees, the two biggest teams clashing in the Fall Series for the first time since 1981, and was done in five.
There was much crowing about the improved ratings, as if it proved how “good for baseball” this all was. Yes, at a 7.2, it had the highest World Series ratings since the 8.1 posted all the way back in… um, 2019. [Although it went to the obvious pull of a seventh game, that Nationals-Astros series had better ratings for Games 1, 2 and 3 than this year] Given we saw the two biggest media markets involved, this is not surprising in the slightest. I’d be curious to find how much of the increase was due purely to higher viewership in New York and Los Angeles. How did it play compared to 2023, in markets that weren’t involved in either series – say, in Chicago? I’ve not been able to find out.
Events of this winter have taken a bad situation and made it ludicrously worse. It began with the signing of Blake Snell – cue another Jack article, “Why Diamondbacks Fans Shouldn’t Freak Out over Dodgers Adding Blake Snell”! – for $182 million. They re-signed Teoscar Hernandez ($66 million). Inked reliever Tanner Scott ($72 million). Extended Tommy Edman ($74 million) And at time of writing, appear to be adding Kirby Yates to their bullpen. Oh, and in surely the least surprising news of the off-season, the best pitcher available this winter, Roki Sasaki, opted to sign with LA for a trivial sum, joining Ohtani and Yamamoto. “It was a very difficult decision,” he said on Instagram. LOL. You’re not fooling anyone, Roki.
Of particular note, the Dodgers’ continued usage of deferral, to the point that they have now put off more than [again, Austin Powers voice please] one billion dollars in contracts. Remember when the D-backs deferring less than one-quarter of that amount was viewed as such an existential threat to baseball, that Bud Selig changed the rules? But even discounting those to the appropriate extent and ignoring the potential addition of Yates, Los Angeles are already looking at a total, for luxury tax purposes, of close to $375 million, which is approaching $75 million more than the second-placed Phillies.
The situation has led to more ludicrous reporting from “journalists” like Ken Rosenthal, who literally wrote, “You’re just mad your owner isn’t doing the same thing.” Newsflash, chucklefuck. They can’t. According to Forbes, the D-backs total revenue last year was $314 million. The Dodgers average more than that just from their local TV deal. Time Warner Cable pay them $8.35 billion over 25 years. Arizona’s local TV deal? It went bankrupt. Add to that, no other team has led the majors in attendance since 2012, LA being more than half a million up on anyone else last year – while being the most expensive park. If the Dodgers sign Yates, some estimate their luxury-tax liability alone could end up being $200 million.
Now, there is certainly grounds to criticize some owners, such as those in Pittsburgh, who spend less on payroll than they receive in revenue sharing. To address that, I’d be entirely on board with a salary floor as well as a hard (or, at least, much hardER) salary cap. But last year, the Diamondbacks spent a significantly higher percentage of revenue on payroll than the Dodgers. Indeed, only the Blue Jays and Mets were above the D-backs, and it’s likely the percentage has increased this year. But you cannot expect teams to spend more than they take in (although it’s surprising how many fans – along with Rosenthal – think owners should treat teams as a personal money pit).
It’s hard to argue that Ken Kendrick has not stepped up, with Arizona likely to have the largest payroll in franchise history again this year, pushing things to the limit of available resources. Their reward? The sports books currently expect them to finish twenty games back of Los Angeles. Now, nothing is certain. But the Dodgers have won the division 11 of the past 12 years, and won 106 games the other season. Given their activity this winter, and the odds against them being as injury-struck as in 2024, another division title across the 162-game regular season feels as close to a certainty as baseball can offer. And certainties in sport are simply no fun to watch.
It’s at the point where I’m considering not buying the necessary streaming package for the Diamondbacks regular season, because every indication is, the NL West this year is going to be a meaningless procession. It’s very unlikely the D-backs will be able to contend with the Dodgers. They’re more likely to be fighting with the Braves, Padres and Mets for a wild-card spot again, and that battle is only going to shape up, if at all, in the second half of September. Until then, I could follow games online, with the occasional “date night” trip to Islands for dinner when I’m recapping. If MLB are seeking to grind down my interest in the sport before the playoffs, mission accomplished. I’ve got better things to do.
Or maybe I just need Jack to tell me why I shouldn’t freak out! 🙂