Because, clearly, Corbin Carroll is going to hit 62 HRs and steal zero bases this year
Due to illness, I was unable to put anything out last week, so this week I’ve got three topics to discuss to make up for it
Torpedo Bats
If the Yankees hadn’t hit nine homeruns on Opening Day, would the Yankees new ‘torpedo’ bats be the big story of Opening Week? Players were already using them last year in the regular and postseason, with Giancarlo Stanton being the most prominent. Considering these bats were already approved by MLB before they were used in any games, for once, I actually agree with Rob Manfred, this is a non-story.
I think a lot of the coverage of this new bat design are missing the mark on what the real story is here, though. What should be the real story is that we’re now in the era of *data driven* ultra customized bat designs that are optimized for an individual hitter’s batting profile, all while staying within the rules. There’s some really great articles and videos discussing the subject already, I suggest checking them out.
Click here to show a useful hint
Hint: each one of those links to a different article or video, so open the articles in an incognito tab
Steinbrenner Field
It turns out that Steinbrenner Field in Tampa may be windier than Wrigley Field, with the average wind speed being 12mph and reaching gusts as high as 24MPH. The combination of the local weather conditions, architecture, and topography surrounding the Ballpark, relative to Tampa Bay, all contribute to make the park change dynamically throughout not just the day, but the whole season. As the day progresses, the park becomes more pitcher friendly, but as the season progresses into summer it will become more hitter friendly until it cools off in the fall. To quote the Snakepit’s own James Attwood , “Dynamic, also read variable as f***, and don’t even try to extrapolate anything from the data.”
It’ll be fascinating to see how the ballpark will actually play this season, since we really don’t have an real comps other than some very random seasons like the lone Seattle Pilots, or expansion franchises in inaugural seasons.
Wildly Overreacting to Too Small of Sample Sizes
Every now and then I like to peruse FanGraphs leaderboards to see who is breaking out, and who is over/underperforming. I actually wrote entirely too long of a paragraph explaining how Kyle Tucker is the MVP frontrunner, but after a poor game yesterday from Tucker and scorching hot game from Corbin Carroll, I have to scrap the whole thing! The latter now leads MLB with a 1.2 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR. If we extrapolate the 13 games Carroll has played in to a full 162 games, he’s on pace for 16 WAR, 62hr/0sb season. (Just for a frame of reference, that would easily beat Ruth’s alll time record 14.1 bWAR 1923 season, or Bonds’ 11.9 bWAR in 2001). I think it’s safe to say that CC won’t reach any of those lofty totals, but if he continues to play even close as he has, I think he’s primed to have an MVP caliber season. His above average bat combined with his significant defense value (15th in DEF on FG) makes it very likely he racks up a lot of value. Also noteworthy in the tiny sample we have to work with is Geraldo Perdomo, who is ranks second overall in defensive value among all qualified hitters, and is producing at above average rate at the plate (145 wRC+).
Of course anyone who has been around the game long enough knows that all those statistics are close to useless when we’re dealing with less than 1/12 of the season, It’s a fun exercise to dream on Carroll being the next Mickey Mantle, but not exactly a productive one.