How did the Diamondbacks fall short of the playoffs?
Last season, what were some of the Diamondbacks’ strengths?
- Offense. Their offense scored the most runs (886) in the Majors.
- Defense. FanGraph’s ranked their defense as fifth best (Def of 20.2).
- Baserunning. Their reputation for chaos on the basepaths is an indication of superior base running.
- Winning close games. The Diamondbacks improved their win-loss record in 1-run games from 21-21 to 26-20.
The next question: What one statistic best tells a story of how the Diamondbacks fell short of the playoffs? And when that question is answered, tracking that statistic will quickly show whether the story will be different than last season.
In general, successful pitchers prevent three things. They prevent home runs. They prevent baserunners (by preventing walks, hits by pitches, singles, …). They prevent extra base hits that score those baserunners. Preventing extra base hits (EBHs) are one leg of a three-legged stool.
Bottom line (but keep reading to see the most interesting stuff): The statistic that best tells a story of how the Diamondbacks fell short of the playoffs is extra base hits allowed. Last season, the Diamondback pitchers allowed a total of 556 EBHs, the most in the Majors.
The Diamondbacks Trend in EBHs is unfavorable.
The following graph shows that in 2022, extra base hits (EBH) improved 17%, which improved the Diamondbacks’ rank from 30th to 25th in the Majors. In the next two seasons EBH was worse, and the Diamondbacks’ rank returned to 30th.
Diamondbacks’ extra base hits. Data from Baseball Reference.
Comparing the Diamondbacks to Other Teams.
Keeping in mind that pitchers need to prevent two things: baserunners on first base and EBHs, let’s compare the Diamondbacks to the other teams.
In 2024, the Tigers, Braves, and Mariners did the best at preventing both things. The two teams that reached the World Series (Dodgers and Yankees) were average at preventing both things. The Rockies clearly stood out as overall worst. The Diamondbacks stood out as allowing more EBHs than any other team.
In the following scatterchart for 2024, red teams had 800 or more runs allowed, and yellow teams had 700 or more runs allowed. As you might expect, because the Rockies had the most batters reaching first base (1B only) and the second most EBHs, they had the most runs allowed (929).
Data from Baseball Reference.
In 2023, the two teams that reached the World Series (Rangers and Diamondbacks) were average at preventing batters from reaching first base. A significant differnce was that the Rangers’ pitchers prevented EBHs much better than the Diamondbacks.
Details can be seen in the following scatterchart for 2023.
Data from Baseball Reference.
Batted ball statistics help explain why the Diamondbacks allowed the most EBHs in the Majors.
Diamondbacks pitchers allowed batters to make excellent contact with the baseball. A few stats from 2024 follow:
- 33.6% Hard Hits. Ranked 28th in the Majors.
- 14.6% Soft Hits. Soft contact rarely happened. Ranked 29th in the Majors.
- 21.1% Line Drives. Line drives are challenging for fielders. Ranked in a 3-way tie for 30th in the Majors.
- .309 BABIP. Ranked 29th in the Majors.
Frequent excellent contact, together with infrequent weak contact, help explain a lot of EBHs.
Comparing Diamondbacks Pitchers.
Let’s look at Diamondbacks pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched in 2024.
Brandon Hughes had the highest EBH/IP and he was the only non-tendered Diamondback. Five of the 8 pitchers with EBH/IP of .48 or higher are no longer with the Diamondbacks. Of the three remainingpitchers, trade rumors have often involved Jordan Montgomery.
Justin Martinez had the lowest EBH/IP and he is a young star who is contending for the closer position. The eight pitchers with EBH/IP of .32 or less are very promising to perform well this season. Two other promising pitchers are Seth Martinez (EBH/IP of .38) who was acquired on waivers, and Eduardo Rodriguez (EBH/IP of .46), who is bouncing back from injuries.
The following table shows the EBH/IP for the Diamondbacks pitchers (plus Seth Martinez).
Diamondbacks plus Seth Martinez. Minimum 10 innings pitched. Data from Baseball Reference.
Summary.
The statistic that best tells the story of how the Diamondbacks fell short of the playoffs is extra base hits allowed.
Batted ball statistics can help explain extra base hits allowed. Examples are hard hit %, soft hit %, line drive %, and BABIP.
In the last two seasons, the teams that reached the World Series had average prevention of batters reaching first base and EBHs. The 2023 Diamondbacks were the exception with high EBHs allowed.
In 2024, the Diamondbacks had the most EBHs in the Majors, and failed to reach the playoffs. Nevertheless, they almost reached the playoffs because they had strong offense, strong defense, chaos baserunning, and they made an improvement in winning 1-run games.