Will he go in? If so, wearing which cap?
This was triggered by samath’s comment, on Steak85’s tongue-somewhat-in-cheek article about “Getting the band back together.” In it, samath suggested that a point in favour of getting Paul Goldschmidt back in Sedona Red was “it would increase the chances that he goes into the Hall as a Diamondback rather than as a Cardinal.” I guess my immediate reaction was “Goldschmidt in the Hall of Fame?” Admittedly, I’ve not particularly thought about him much since he left, and particularly after he re-signed in St. Louis. So my first question is: will he make it into Cooperstown? Then, if the answer is in the affirmative, in which team’s cap will he do so?
Hall of Fame chances
The obvious caveat is that Paul Goldschmidt is still playing. However, he is now 37 years old, and production after this point is very likely to decline sharply. In the wild-card era, only eight players have posted 10+ bWAR after their age 36 season, and that list is led by the man with the giant asterisk by his statistics. Many players struggle to be better than replacement level, even those who were previously great. The obvious example is Albert Pujols, who played until he was 42 years old, amassed 654 games in his post-36 seasons… and was worth 0.1 bWAR during that time. While earning over $140 million, incidentally. Save a last hoorah with St Louis, his career bWAR would have dropped back below 100.
So, let’s be conservative and presume that Goldschmidt simply retired right now, his career stats frozen at the end of the 2024 campaign. How do they compare to other players? Here’s a very useful link, which compares his numbers, in a range of areas, against the leaders among first-basemen, both those in and out of the Hall of Fame. The simplest metric would be career bWAR, and there Goldschmidt looks to be solid. There are 25 first basemen in Cooperstown, and they have an average bWAR of 64.8. Goldy is virtually there (62.8), and of those ahead of him, the only eligible player not yet elected is Rafael Palmeiro, and his 2005 suspension for steroids (all ten days of it!) is an obvious factor.
Elsewhere, things are a little less certain. Goldschmidt does have that 2022 MVP to lean on. But Keith Hernandez, whose 60.3 bWAR is not dissimilar, will tell you that an MVP award does not equate to a plaque in Cooperstown. An even more blatant example is Ryan Howard who, like Goldschmidt, won an MVP and had four top-5 finishes. Howard didn’t even make it onto a second ballot for the Hall of Fame. What might work against Paul, in this sabermetric heavy era, is that he has never been the best player by bWAR, even when he won the MVP. He has only finished in the top five twice, there in 2022 and his MVP runner-up season in 2015, as a Diamondback.
That isn’t necessarily a show-stopper. David Ortiz was elected in 2022, despite never leading in bWAR. He did have more top five finishes than Goldschmidt, however. Paul does have seven All-Star appearances to his credit, a number indicating a lengthy tenure among the best in the league. On the other hand, he has never appeared in the World Series and his teams are 7-16 over his post-season games, though his playoff OPS of .909 is good. But the only time Goldy went past the Division round, he hardly showed up. Goldschmidt went 1-for-16 with no walks and nine strikeouts, as the Cardinals were swept by the Nationals in the 2019 Championship Series. So he’s not exactly. Mr. October.
All told, I think he will probably make it in, but right now, I tend to think he won’t be a first-time inductee. To some extent, Paul’s notoriously quiet persona might work against him. While showing up and grinding it out, season after season, is highly laudable, this blue-collar approach tends to fly below the radar. especially since Goldschmidt has never played in the big coastal markets. There’s no real “signature moment” which voters will think of, such as a game-winning World Series hit, although fans in Arizona and St. Louis would be happy to fill in the gaps there, I imagine!
What cap will Goldschmidt wear?
Again, I’m presuming that his time is over with both the Cardinals and D-backs. As samath noted, a return to Arizona could end up skewing the result further towards the desert. But in terms of both quality and quantity of performance, the Diamondbacks appear to have an edge, by most metrics:
ARI: 8 yrs, 1092 games, .297/.398/.532 = .930 OPS, 145 OPS+, 39.9 bWAR
STL: 6 yrs, 836 games, .278/.360/.483 = .843 OPS, 130 OPS+, 22.9 bWAR
That’s an average of almost five wins per year with Arizona, compared to 3.8 in St, Louis, though almost two-third of his post-season appearances (15:8) come as a Cardinal.
Obviously, a big factor is the MVP award, won as a Redbird. However, all three of Paul’s Gold Gloves, and six of the seven All-Star appearances, came with the Snakes. I may be – okay, probably am – biased, but I think the indication is that the numbers skew in Arizona’s favor. But it’s not purely an objective process, with the choice being made by the Hall of Fame since the class of 2002 , albeit typically in conjunction with the player. But their decision is what matters, as Andre Dawson found out. Maybe Derrick Hall could have a quiet word with the President of the Hall of Fame – it’s former D-backs VP Josh Rawitch…
Entirely unmerited hints of backroom dealings aside, another possibility is the dreaded blank cap, which would leave neither set of fans satisfied. This is surprisingly common, including some players who you would imagine were certs to be team specific. The most extreme example is there Yogi Berra, who played only four of his 2,120 career games not in pinstripes. I’m still not sure why he ended up blank. More recently, both Roy Halladay and Mike Mussina were similarly team-neutral. But plenty of time to worry about that. We are likely looking at Goldschmidt not even being on the ballot until 2030 at the earliest, We’ll maybe revisit this discussion in five years or so!