Christian Walker.
From 2019 through 2024, Christian Walker was the Diamondbacks’ primary first baseman, earning 15.5 bWAR. Excluding the short season in 2020, from 2019 through 2024, he averaged 143 games per season.
A few measures of his excellent performance follow:
Won Gold Gloves in 2022 and 2023. Finalist for Gold Glove in 2024.
D-backs’ Outs-Above-Average (OAA) at First Base.
- 2022 14 OAA, ranking best in Majors.
- 2023 7 OAA, ranking best in Majors.
- 2024 9 OAA, ranking second best in Majors.
From 2022 through 2024, he hit 17.3% of the D-backs homer runs and 12.7% of the D-backs RBIs. That translates to one of every 6 home runs and one of every 8 RBIs.
Preseason 2023 and 2024, MLB.com ranked him as the ninth best first baseman in the Majors.
It’s too bad that he is now a free agent because he can sign with other teams, many of whom could outbid the Diamondbacks. If I was the GM of the Diamondbacks, I would make a qualifying offer to him ($21.05 Million) to keep him one more season. Just in case he declines that hypothetical offer and moves to another team, let’s look at an alternative.
An Alternative: Pavin Smith.
Knowing strengths and limitations is important. Pavin Smith’s strength is batting and relative weakness is defense.
Defense.
Last season, Pavin Smith showed improved defense at first base (Outs Above Average compared to the previous season). Baseball Savant provided the following:
- against right-handed batters, improved from zero OAA to one OAA.
- against left-handed batters, improved from negative four OAA to negative one OAA.
At first base, it is likely he could be a league average fielder.
Pavin Smith lacks position flexibility. Watching Pavin Smith play in the outfield left me with a strong feeling that he should never again play in the outfield. Although he was not charged with an error, I was stunned by his attempts to field the baseball. A second reason he should not play the outfield is that his arm allowed batters and runners to take extra bases. In 2024, two statistics tell the story: 100 percent safe per attempt, 42% safe per opportunity. Statistics from Baseball Savant.
Utility player Kevin Newman could be the backup first baseman (in addition to playing other positions). When excellent defense is needed to hold a late inning lead, Kevin Newman could enter the game. In case of injury, Tim Tawa will continue to develop in AAA, hopefully at warp speed.
Home Runs.
Hitting home runs is a strength. His .057 home runs per PA exceeded Walker’s .047 home runs per PA. Also, Pavin Smith’s home runs were memorable:
- On 23 April against the Cardinals, Pavin Smith hit a grand slam.
- On 3 June against the Giants, Pavin Smith hit a walk-off home run.
- On 8 September against the Astros, Pavin Smith hit 3 home runs in one game!
His better home runs reflected better hitting. His barrels per PA and barrels per batted-ball-event were better than Christian Walker (10.1% vs 8.5% and 14.7% vs 13.3%).
bWAR.
Pavin Smith as primary and Kevin Newman as backup could nearly replace Walker’s bWAR based on the following:
- Walker 2.6 bWAR in 552 PAs. Although Walker had more WAR is 2023, going forward 2.6 WAR is more conservative and realistic.
- Pavin Smith 467+ PAs, 1.8 bWAR
- Kevin Newman 117+ PAs, 0.7 bWAR
Run Expectancy.
Last season at the plate, Pavin Smith increased run expectancy by more than Christian Walker (RE-24 increase of 11.68 compared to 4.74). The following bar graph shows the RE-24 for the Diamondbacks batters.
Dbacks in 2024 Season. Data from FanGraphs.
Run Expectancy Increase Per Plate Appearance.
Last season, Pavin Smith’s run expectancy increase per plate appearance was more than any other Diamondback except Adrian Del Castillo (whose 87 PAs were less than Smith). More than any other statistic, this convinced me that Pavin Smith is an alternative to Christian Walker. The following bar graph shows the increase in RE-24 per plate appearance for the Diamondbacks batters.
Dbacks in 2024 Season. Data from FanGraphs.
Summary.
Christian Walker is one of the best first basemen in the Majors. His strengths include Gold-Glove defense and power batting.
Christian Walker is a free agent. Next season, Pavin Smith is an alternative to play first base.
Last season Pavin Smith improved his defense at first base. Next season, his defense at first base could be league average. When excellent defense is needed to hold a late inning lead, utility player Kevin Newman could enter the game.
Pavin Smith could replace Christian Walker’s batting for the following reasons:
- He has more home runs per plate appearance.
- He could replace a conservative estimate of Christain Walker’s WAR (2.6 WAR).
- His increased run expectancy per plate appearance was higher than any other Diamondback except Adrian Del Castillo (and much higher than Christian Walker).