And the results are in…
Back at the start of the season, as is SnakePit tradition, I handed out 1,500 SnakePit Dollars to anyone who wanted to place some bets on various prop bets on the D-backs team, manager and players. This year, as we discussed a couple of weeks ago, twenty of you entered the casino. Everyone else now gets to learn how their wagers fared, after I spent a bored Saturday afternoon spreadsheeting. Here it is: I may have miscopied in your bets, so please check your line against the original bets in the comments of the link above.
Before we get to the results though, let’s go through the categories of bets and see how they ended up. This is always interesting, as a yardstick of how various players, as well as the team overall, did in comparison to pre-season expectations. For each bet, you’ll see the preseason, the amount wagered by bettors on the over and under, the final number, and whether it was the over or under which prevailed.
- Christian Walker HR 31.5 (65-1115), 26 UNDER
- Christian Walker RBI 95.5 (1465-65), 84 UNDER
Walker’s numbers were certainly impacted by him missing the entire month of Augut. After appearing in 160 + 157 games the previous two years, he managed only 130 this year. If you pro-rate the actual numbers to the same number of games, you basically get 32 HR and 192 RBI. So there’s little question that his strained left oblique, which cost him thirty-one games, also cost Walker the over on both of his bets. He still had a solid season, setting himself up nicely for what looks like to be a very lucrative free-agency this winter. Whether it will be the Diamondbacks who pay, or someone else (maybe the Mets?), we will have to wait and see. [Unless he signs between me writing this on October 5th, and it being published!]
- Eugenio Suarez HR 25.5 (300-830), 30 OVER
- Eugenio Suarez RBI 85.5 (0-130), 101 OVER
Oh, ye of little faith… Let the record show that Makakilo was the only person to pick the over on either of the Suarez lines. Everyone else got burned – though only eventually, and must have been feeling pretty, pretty good [/curbed] about their investments in the early going. Through July 6, 89 games into the season, Suarez had six home-runs and thirty-four RBI, and was teetering on the edge of being dumped. But an insane turnaround saw him swat 24 homers in only 280 AB the rest of the way, with a .973 OPS and 67 RBI in 73 games. It was probably the best second-half by a Diamondback since J.D. Martinez came to Arizona at the 2017 trade deadline.
- Lourdes Gurriel HR 18.5 (865-65), 18 UNDER
- Lourdes Gurriel RBI 75.5 (765-65), 75 UNDER
Missed it, by THAT much. Lourdes came out of the gate hot, with three homers and eight RBI in the first three games of the season. But the bombs eventually dried up, and he went more than a month from mid-April without going deep. In the end, as with Walker, it was injury that was the deciding factor here. He entered September on 17 HR and 70 RBI, but then missed half the month with a strained left calf. He homered on his September 20th return, but that was his final one of the year, and although he drove in a run during the season finale, he fell just short in the RBI column as well. Congratulations to the sports book for just about nailing this one exactly.
- Zac Gallen Wins 13.5 (2380-600), 14 OVER
- Zac Gallen Strikeout 192.5 (65-665), 156 UNDER
A lot of people had faith in Gallen, coming off a 17-win season in 2023, but that bet looked on shaky territory for a lot of the season, especially after he had to miss a month. At the half-way point, he only had five victories to his credit. Though he picked up the pace in the second half of July, Zac entered September on ten wins, and with only five starts to go, very little room for error. He did the needful, going 4-0 (the no-decision being the insane 11-10 win over Milwaukee), to cross the line in his final outing. His K-rate was about the same as last year, but the six fewer starts, and 62 fewer innings all told, meant he was always facing an uphill struggle there.
- Merrill Kelly Wins 11.5 (1565-215), 5 UNDER
Nope.
- Eduardo Rodriguez Wins 9.5 (450-730), 3 UNDER
No, really: nope.
- Paul Sewald Saves 21.5 (450-1130), 16 UNDER
LOLNope.
And, moving RAPIDLY on…
The results
We have a triple tie at the top, with three people who all won four out of their five $300 bets. That gives them an overal profit on the year of $900. The trio in question, along with the wagers which spoiled their perfect record were: Xerostomia (Kelly Wins), MrRbi17 (Carroll BA) and Diamondhacks (Gallen Wins). Mind you, the last named probably deserved to lose that bet, by spelling it “Winz”. The majority of people (11 of 20) scored a profit of $300, by winning three out of five bets, and all told, only four customers ended the year in negative territory. Sharing the ignominy of last place are GuruB and 1AZFan1, both on a loss of $900, winning only one bet apiece (team and Gallen wins respectively).
All told, the house came away with a loss of S$4,690 on thirty thousand SnakePit dollars in wages. The vast bulk of that deficit (S$4,045) came on the team wins total, which almost everyone bet on, and mostly successfully. The house clawed back some money with the help of Corbin Carroll, but Gallen’s final outing victory sealed the deal on a non-profitable season for the SnakePit Casino. I’ll have to go back to mugging kids for their lunch money. Below are the full results.
- Xerostomia 900
MrRbi17 900
Diamondhacks 900 - chronicles 600
- Spencer O’Gara 320
- Makakilo 300
Justin27 300
Steak85 300
eel2 300
BeTeaBaseball 300
EdTheRed99 300
Trappkory 300
gzimmerm 300
Hannibal4467 300
VeeLoh 300
ryeandi 300 - ercil -100
- Steven Burt -330
- GuruB -900
1AZfan1 -900
We will see you next season, when the SnakePit Casino opens its doors once again! Good luck until then!