Everything’s coming up roses(ish)!
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Arizona Diamondbacks fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
After the last series, we asked you whether the Diamondbacks were on course to beat or come in under the Fanduel wins line for the team, which was set at 86.5 wins. Now, if I’ve learned anything from polling, it’s that fandom is a fickle mistress, whose motto can be summed up as, “What have you done for me lately?” As ChefAZ noted in the comments, it’s likely the results would have been different had it been posted after the series opening loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Monday, when the team lost their third game in a row, and fell below .500. But I am not the master of the SB Nation Reacts calendar, so here we are. Consequently, the results were:
That’s a solid vote of confidence for the team. The team is right on track, the current pace (at time of writing, before last night’s game) working out at 87 wins. However, Fangraphs currently has the team projected at 86 wins. If those numbers come to pass for everyone, it’s going to be hella interesting. Because that would put Arizona in a tie with San Francisco AND San Diego for the third NL wild-card spot, behind the Mets and Braves. In the West, only the Rockies would have fewer wins than the 85 currently projected for the Central winners, the Cubs. However, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus is more optimistic, giving Arizona 89 wins – though to the nearest game, would still be in a tie with San Diego.
I think it’s reasonable to say that this team is likely to go as the starting pitching goes. Given how mixed the results have been, it’s remarkable that the team are at or above .500 so far (depending on how Friday night went!). If the five current members can perform to the level we expect from them, then I would be inclined to agree that the over is more likely, due to the potential upside of a rotation which is strong from top to bottom. But after what we’ve seen, with Game Scores on consecutive nights whiplashing from 81 to 6, you’d be forgiven for suffering from a little bit of shellshock. I’m sure things will settle down over the next 148 games. What to, however, is less certain!