A key to winning will be the Diamondbacks offense.
Will the Diamondbacks win the series?
A key to winning will be the Diamondbacks offense. Their 5.36 runs scored per game is the third best in the league (and much higher than the Mets 4.21 runs scored per game). But they are facing a great defensive team. The Mets have allowed 2.93 runs per game, the lowest in the league.
Three additional challenges follow:
- It’s a home game for the Mets. Their record in home games is 12 wins and 1 loss (games through 27 April).
“Citifield was rocking last night. Big crowd and a Lindor walk off. Come on out everybody and join the fun!” — Steve Cohen
- As of 21 April, their power ranking was tied with the Padres for the second best team in the Majors.
- The Diamondbacks pitching has been inconsistent.
Mets to watch during the series.
Juan Soto, OF. Although his OPS+ might be less than expected, with five silver slugger awards including 2023 and 2024, a bounce higher could happen. And his defense is great. Last season he was a gold glove finalist for right field. Looking at his great throws in the 23 April game, this season he could again be a gold glove finalist. In that game he made three great throws. Two resulted in outs and the last one kept the runner at third base in extra innings.
Francisco Lindor, SS. His 145 OPS+ is the second best on the Mets. In 20 games (5 in the last two seasons), he hit 2 or 3 homers. His mind-set is that unless his batting has at least one success per game, he was a no-show.
“…If you go to the box and you waste five at-bats, that’s a day that you didn’t show up. So, I took that [feedback from his batting coach] to heart.” — Francisco Lindor
Pete Alonso, 1B. His 212 OPS+ is the best on the Mets. His 11 doubles were remarkable, and his 6 homers are great. Games through 26 April.
What to look for each day.
At the time of writing, all Mets pitchers were TBA, but best guesses follow.
Tuesday, 4:10 PM MST.
David Peterson has an ERA of 3.29 in 27.1 innings. After his first game, he has not allowed any home runs. His FIP is 3.02.
Eduardo Rodriguez has an ERA of 4.40 in 28.2 innings. His 2.74 FIP is better than David Peterson.
This matchup of starting pitchers is about even.
Wednesday, 4:10 PM MST
Kodai Senga has an ERA of 1.26 in 28.2 innings. My view is that his ERA will be higher after this game.
Corbin Burnes has an ERA of 4.05 in 26.2 innings. My view is that he pitched better than his statistics; he is due for some awesome starts.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Mets.
Thursday, 10:10 AM MST
Clay Holmes has an ERA of 2.64 in 30.2 innings. In his last three starts, he allowed a total of 2 earned runs in 16 innings (a good run for him).
Zac Gallen. This season, he pitched better against right-handed batting (allowed OPS .534 vs .940). If he has good results against Juan Soto (left handed) and Francisco Lindor (switch hitter), then he will likely find success. My view is that often walking Soto and Lindor would be acceptable.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Mets.