A preview of our 3 game set in the nation’s capital
The Diamondbacks are taking a train from the Bronx to the District to begin a 3 game series against the Washington Nationals (1-5, 4th NL East). To help introduce us to the 2025 Nats, Sam Sallick (Manager of SB Nation’s Nationals site, Federal Baseball) was gracious enough to answer a few questions for me to post for you all.
Five Questions with Federal Baseball
1 – How do you feel the rebuild is going? Is 2025 a realistic year for playoff contention or are they still targeting 2026 and beyond?
Sam: I feel the Nats contention window really opens in 2026. This year they will be pushing to get closer to .500 and find some upward mobility in the NL standings. However, I don’t expect to make the playoffs this year. It is still a very young team.
2 – What encourages you most through the first week for the Nats? Anything worrying you?
Sam: The starting pitching has been very good the first time through. MacKenzie Gore looked like one of the best pitchers on the planet on Opening Day. He has always had the stuff, for him it is all about consistency and holding up in the summer. If you look at his splits, he is great in April and May, awful in June and July and somewhat finds a second wind down the stretch. He needs to avoid that summer swoon this year. Nathaniel Lowe, who I thought the Nats stole in that trade has looked very good. On the negative side, Dylan Crews has looked totally overmatched to start the season. The bullpen has also been an adventure as well.
3 – I feel that the Nationals occupy a similar space in the NL East that the Diamondbacks have in the NL West. We’re both mid-market spenders in divisions with some HUGE spenders and franchises with sustained historical success. What is your perspective of the Diamondbacks and how they’ve become competitive in a division with some deep-pocketed and storied franchises?
Sam: I agree with that. They are also relatively new franchises as well. From afar, I really respect what the D-backs have done the last 3 or 4 years. They have done a good job developing players and take swings when they get the chance. Those swings don’t always work, but it does not stop them from trying and they have the infrastructure to sustain. Corbin Carroll is such an exciting player when he is right as well. I really enjoyed that 2023 run. The D-Backs provide a model the Nats could look at following.
4 – Which player(s) should D-backs fans should keep an eye on this series?
Sam: James Wood is the guy to watch. He is a marvel, even just to look at. Wood has that Aaron Judge starter kit of having crazy power, monster size, a good approach and freakish athleticism for that size. He hits some goofy opposite field home runs. Wood has a real chance to turn into a star.
5 – The Nationals win this series if…
Sam: If the bullpen can hold up and the Nats can continue hitting for the power they have early in the season.
Thanks for answering my questions, Sam!
Probables
Game 1, 4/4 3:45 PM: Brandon Pfaadt (RHP, 0-1, 4.50 ERA) vs Jake Irvin (RHP, 0-0, 3.60 ERA)
Irvin pitched 5 innings against Philly in his first and only start of the season. He held the Phillies to 2 ER, but allowed 7 H and 2 BB. He doesn’t bring a ton of velocity to the table, averaging 93.9 MPH on his fastball last year. He throws his curveball nearly as much as his fastball, and last year it graded out pretty well. He rounds his arsenal out with a sinker and he sparingly uses a cutter and changeup.
Brandon Pfaadt’s first start after the announcement of his contract extension didn’t go as well as he would’ve wanted, but he still recorded a Quality Start. His 3 ER and 6 IP equate to a 4.50 ERA, but as is typical for him, his ERA estimators (FIP and xFIP) were markedly better. Last year, his final ERA sat a full run higher than his estimators, and his first start in 2025 continues that trend. If his ERA ever drops down to how well the estimators say he’s pitching, Mike Hazen might go to prison for theft in this contract extension he negotiated with Pfaadt.
Game 2, 4/5, 1:05 PM: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, 0-0, 5.06 ERA) vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Mitchell Parker is a 6’4” lefty who is responsible for the lone Nats win this season. He went 6.1 IP against Philadelphia’s strong lineup. He gave up 7 H and 2 BB, just like Irvin the day before, but was able to strikeout 5 Phils and keep them off the scoreboard. He sports a fastball that sits 92-93 MPH and he throws it about half of his pitches. He throws a sinker, slider, and curveball off the fastball.
E-Rod’s start to 2025 was serviceable and certainly felt better than the 5.06 ERA he’s currently running. He pitched into the 6th inning against the Cubs and only gave up 6 combined hits and walks to his 5 strikeouts. His 3 earned runs allowed came on 2 homers. Hopefully he’ll be able to similarly keep runners off the base paths in this start.
Game 3, 4/6, 10:35 AM: Corbin Burnes (RHP, 0-0, 4.15 ERA) vs. Michael Soroka (RHP, 0-1, 7.20 ERA)
Michael Soroka made his first start of 2025 in Toronto and it did not go well. He was able to last 5 innings, but he gave up 4 runs, all earned. He’s another guy who averages around 93 MPH with his fastball and he uses it evenly with his slider. His other two pitches are a sinker and changeup.
Corbin Burnes made his first start in Sedona Red a little later in the season than we may have hoped. He was touched up for a couple solo homers and a couple unearned runs and only lasted 4.1 innings, but he was able to strikeout 8 Yankees and for the most part looked like we shouldn’t have buyer’s remorse on his big offseason contract.
Bullpens
Washington’s bullpen is off to a rough start, with the third-highest ERA in MLB at 7.78. The Nationals have 33 year old right-hander Kyle Finnegan (0-0, 1 SV, 0.00 ERA) in the closer’s role. This is his 6th year in the majors (all with Washington) and he’s really turned into a quality closer for them. In 2023 and 2024 combined, Finnegan has the 4th most saves in all of baseball (66). The Nats have two lefties in the ‘pen, Jose A. Ferrer (0-1, 3 G, 4.91 ERA) and Colin Poche (0-2, 3G, 40.50 ERA). The latter doesn’t have great results against either lefties or righties, but the former has pretty good numbers against lefties. Coming off an off day, everyone should be available for the Nationals from the jump.
The Diamondbacks bullpen currently ranks 20th in MLB by ERA (4.73). It feels like that doesn’t reflect how well the bullpen has pitched, and that feeling is validated when looking at FIP and xFIP which are 2.89 (10th) and 2.45 (3rd), respectively. Just like with Brandon Pfaadt, if the bullpen can close the gap between ERA and the estimators, this will be the best bullpen of the Hazen era. Due to high pitch counts last night in New York, I’d expect Ryne Nelson and possibly Jalen Beeks to be unavailable to pitch in the first game of the series, and if Shelby Miller has to pitch tonight, he’s going to be down on Saturday.
Lineups
As a team, Washington is a bottom-third offense in the young season. They’ve been able to hit home runs (9, 9th in MLB), but there aren’t many runners on to drive in (.279 OBP, 20th). They’re walking at a low rate (23rd) and striking out at an alarmingly high rate (2nd) which is never a good combination. Individually, to start the season, Keibert Ruiz has been absolutely on fire for the Nats. He’s hitting .381 with a pair of homers and 5 RBI to lead the Nats with 219 wRC+. Offseason acquisition Nathaniel Lowe has fit in nicely in the capital, hitting a pair of homers himself and leading the team with 6 RBI. James Wood, a physical “marvel” as Sam Sallick put it above, is off to a slow start, but I wouldn’t bet on it to continue indefinitely. Wood is only hitting .217 right now, but his 6’7”, 230 lb frame can mash (92.7 MPH Avg. EV) and he is able to combine that raw power with 85th percentile sprint speed. Hopefully his season correction doesn’t start this weekend.
The D-backs are currently sporting the 5th best wRC+ in MLB. The team’s walk and strikeout rates are the direct inverse of Washington’s; they have a 12.4% walk rate (1st) and a 18.2% K rate (2nd). The team’s patience and ability to put the ball in play is getting a lot of men on base and crossing home plate. Individually, I want to highlight Geraldo Perdomo. The man who typically hits 9th in the order is tied for the team lead with 11 RBI. Obviously the grand slam last night gave a good boost to those numbers, but if he had driven in 0 runs on that play, he’d still be 2nd on the team with 7 RBI and doing it without a homer. That just goes to show how effective the Rattle of the Snakes lineup has been this early in the season. The bottom of the order is getting on base and Domo has been pushing them home, giving the D-backs a very long lineup once again this year.
Old Friends
The Nationals have a few ties to the Diamondbacks. Josh Bell moved back to D.C. after his brief stint with us last year and is off to a terrible start to the season. Andrés Chaparro never took the field for the Diamondbacks, but he came over to Washington in the Dylan Floro trade we made at the deadline last year. He has yet to play in a game yet this year due to being on the IL with an oblique injury. The one member of the Nats that I’d truly consider an ‘old friend’ is Gerardo Parra who is now the first base coach in Washington. His cannon of an arm and awesome personality made him one of my favorite D-backs of all-time and it makes me happy to see him continue his career in baseball, even if it isn’t in our dugout.
Conclusion
Fortunately, we miss Mackenzie Gore this series, helping us secure the edge in both starting pitching and relief. Washington has been adept at hitting the long ball thus far in 2025, so hopefully our staff can keep runners off the bases to help minimize damage when the dingers come. Offensively, hopefully, our hitters can run up the pitch counts on their starters to get into that leaky Nationals’ bullpen as quickly as possible. Here’s to keeping our series win streak going.