I thought Snake eats Bird, but Getty Images hardly agrees with that.
What now?
What do you get when you have a room full of overenthusiastic persons sitting together? According to an article I once read: the stock market. Well, after last week, it seems that all of them have become pessimistic. What do you get when you put a bunch of persons in the same room that don’t know whether to be positive or negative? Well, right now, you probably get fans of the Orioles and the Diamondbacks.
The season is still very young, of course, with just 10 games in, but after splitting the opening series against the Cubs and winning on the road in Yankee Stadium, it certainly feels something of an underachievement to lose in Washington, although that team looks like it might soon step back into contention, despite being at 1-5 when we played them.
But still, you would have hoped for a bit more after 10 games, especially when you see the San Francisco Giants leading the NL West with 8-1, at par with the Dodgers at 9-2 and the Padres right behind them at 8-2.
No, early in the season, the Diamondbacks already look like a team that will have to give it all against each opponent, no matter what their name is, especially if the team keeps on pitching like it does while exhibiting sloppy defensive plays.
In that light, it certainly doesn’t help that one of the bigger power houses in the MLB visits Arizona the upcoming three days.
Orioles look like the Diamondbacks in the AL East.
The Diamondbacks themselves were obviously not a snob themselves either in 2024, but the Orioles also stood their ground with some impressive offensive stats: in all MLB 2nd in homeruns and 2nd in OPS+. They were also the team with least GIDP (71 vs 112 for the Diamondbacks). It was a wild team led by Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and Anthony Santander’s 44 homeruns, but in a traditionally strong AL East they ended up second after a mediocre September and were then also, somewhat surprisingly, silenced by the Kansas City Royals in the Wild Card series.
Coincidentally, those 3 big bats that propelled the team last year, have been absent this year. Colton Cowser hit the injured list after just 3 games with a .535 OPS, Gunnar Henderson hit the injured list after just 3 games with a .154 OPS, while Anthony Santander didn’t appear in any Oriole game after hitting free agency and signing with the Blue Jays.
Small sample sizes is junk food for stock market traders, so we all know that Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser will return to hitting, once they return from the injured list (Henderson will be ready for Arizona), just like the rest of the Orioles have already been doing, although not as loudly as maybe the top teams in the MLB at the moment.
What is the Orioles’ problem then? It might sound familiar to you: their -7 Rdrs is second last in the majors on Baseball Reference, while their 4.71 ERA and 92 ERA+ is better than the Diamondbacks’, but still in the lower part of the majors.
In all honesty, for a team that is battling in the AL East and disappointed in last year’s playoffs, the Orioles have not done that much in the off-season. Last year they lacked an ace leading their staff and then traded for one (Corbin Burnes!), but this year they decided or could not make a splash for another big name.
Their biggest off-season acquisition was Tyler O’Neill, but he will have a hard time filling in the gap that Anthony Santander left. The loss of Corbin Burnes was made up with a couple of one-year signings of Charlie Morton and Tomoyoki Sugano. Behind them a slurry of other moves, like the signing of Gary Sanchez as back-up catcher and reliever Andrew Kittredge. That might be too much mediocrity for the Baltimore Orioles and their 4-6 record after 10 games in the AL East, enough for last place, perhaps isn’t that surprising with most teams there focused on winning, being it realistic or not.
That is what the Orioles will be looking for in their visit to Phoenix as well: winning. Let’s hope the Diamondbacks can revert the early pitching woes and overcome their feeble defence.
Matchups.
Game #1 Mon 04/07 6:40 PM MST, Zac Gallen (ARI) vs Zach Eflin (BAL).
- Zac Gallen. 2 GS, 10.2 IP, 1 W-1 L, 3.38 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 4.25 K/BB.
- Zach Eflin. 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 1 W-1 L, 3.75 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, 7.00 K/BB.
Zach Eflin was pitching like…Zach Eflin in Tampa Bay until he got traded to division rival Baltimore in July 2024 after the Orioles were hit by a bunch of injuries in their rotation and had to look for some outside help. Eflin did phenomenally and pitched to a 2.60 ERA over 9 games for Baltimore. In two starts this year he had to settle for one loss (Boston) and got a win (Toronto), although in the start in Toronto he gave up more runs than against Boston. Eflin does not have overwhelming stuff but does have pinpoint command, hardly walks a batter, and sports six different pitches, which shows where his value lies.
While Eflin will be a hard apple to bite, the Diamondbacks counter with Zac Gallen who was fantastic in his latest start. The odds definitely are Diamondbacks’ here.
Game #2 Tue 04/08 6:40 PM MST, Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Charlie Morton (BAL).
- Merrill Kelly. 2 GS, 9.0 IP, 1 W-1 L, 10.00 ERA, 9.09 FIP, 2.11 WHIP, 0.43 K/BB.
- Charlie Morton. 2 GS, 8.1 IP, 0 W-2 L, 9.72 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 1.92 WHIP, 4.33 K/BB.
Two veteran starters who are more than anything known for their reliability have both been hit hard in their first two starts of the season. Kelly, however, navigated against the Cubs but then found his Captain Nemo in the Bronx, giving up 9 runs in just 3.2 innings. Morton did hardly better, though in his case he struggled in both of his starts giving up 5 and 4 runs respectively in 5 and 3.1 innings against Boston and Toronto. It seems that this matchup could go either way and it probably depends on who is capable of leaving his struggles behind better though odds hint at Morton probably having the better shot at that.
Game #3 Wed 04/09 12:40 PM MST, Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Dean Kremer (BAL).
- Brandon Pfaadt. 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 1 W-1 L, 5.25 ERA, 6.17 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 9.00 K/BB.
- Dean Kremer. 2 GS, 9.2 IP, 1 W-1 L, 6.52 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.55 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB.
You’d also be inclined to say that this final matchup could go either way. Kremer had his breakout season in 2022 and his been back-of-the-rotation material the past few seasons, pitching right on average. Pfaadt still has his aura of high strikeout and top of the rotation potential, but is still struggling with the too hard hits. His last performance in Washington was disappointing, giving up 3 homeruns, and he’ll have to be better than that. Both players faced the opposing team for the first time in their career last year and both were tagged with a loss, so at least one of them has a chance of faring better than the other in that regard in the final game of this series.
My prediction? I say Zac Gallen tilts the balance towards the Diamonbacks and we step over mount .500 again.