The Diamondbacks high-powered offense faces off against the Diamondbacks low-powered pitching at Coors Field
At time of writing, only the pitching matchup for the first game has been announced, and either way, pitching matchup analysis is probably less important at Coors than it is just about anywhere else, I thought I’d take five hundred words or so to really lay out the path the Diamondbacks have left to face, both personally and through the eyes of the Padres, Mets and Brewers.
Up first, of course, the Diamondbacks have these three games in Colorado, followed by four in Milwaukee. We throw the term “must win” around far too often, and frequently far too early, but you do not get more must win than these games in Denver. This is a bad team. They are the only NL team with a worse ERA+ than us. They have the third worst offense in the National League. Anything less than a sweep is a disappointment. Anything less than a series win is a failure. It is not an overstatement to say that the wins they pick up in this series could easily be the difference between playoff baseball and tee times.
Then we’re on to Milwaukee, home of the team that just kicked our a** between our ears, and would have swept us if not for an otherworldly level of grit from our offense. The need to win here is a much more general need. It’s more about keeping pace with the other two/three teams rather than an imperative to pad the win column. A series split probably keeps us in the hunt pretty easily. Of course more wins is always better.
At the conclusion of the final regular season road trip, they come back for six split between the Giants and the Padres. The Diamondbacks are 6-4 against the Giants so far this season. They’re far from the Wild Card contenders they were earlier this season, however, as they currently sit 11 games behind the Diamondbacks in the standings. Much like the Rockies, this should be a good chance to pad the win total.
The Padres series we’ve all been anticipating since the season began. Pretty much regardless of what happens over the next three series, it will come down to that final series against the Padres.
The Braves have one against the Dodgers, three each against the Reds and Marlins on the road. Those six games are why I’m more worried about the Braves passing us than the Mets. That’s a lot of easy wins they can pick up there, and we’ll have to take care of business against the Brewers in that follow up seires to keep up. They then have their own version of our Padres series against the Mets, and end the season in Atlanta facing the Royals.
I think it’s safe to say that the Mets have the hardest schedule to end the year. They are have three against the Nationals, but then go into a gauntlet of Phillies, Braves, and Brewers to end the year.
The Diamondbacks Magic Number over both the Braves and Mets is 12. Any combination of Dbacks wins or Braves/Mets losses that gets to that number sends Arizona to their first consecutive playoff berths in 22 years. Realistically, I see six wins for the Diamondbacks. Two against the Rockies, one against the Brewers, two against the Giants, one against the Padres. The Mets are the key. With their run of playoff contenders, I think they are the most likely to find six losses in their schedule and punch the Diamondbacks ticket.
Regardless of how it happens, a combination of twelve Diamondbacks wins and either Met or Brave losses is still eminently possible. I’m not going to try and predict where they go after that, but I will say here and now, in writing, that I see a path for the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, and I believe they take it. I’ll even take it a step further. They will have clinched a playoff spot by first pitch against the Padres.
It all starts with the Rockies, though. Merrill Kelly vs. Antonio Senzatela, tonight. 5:40 PM. See you there!