We are probably warned now.
What happened in the previous series?
As you might remember, I did the preview for the Brewers at Chase Field series. That was just a week ago. It was obvious that we would face a tough opponent, who had had their troubles in September, but was solidly leading the NL Central and had achieved great results against teams over .500.
While the rotation was a bit of a question mark, they came to Arizona with their two best starters.
In the comments several knowledgeable Snakepitters pointed out the excellent defence of the Brewers. Nonetheless, in the poll almost 75% of the voters (just 31) had confidence in a Diamondbacks’ win, which was also my feeling. Especially the last matchup of Gallen vs Hall looked like a slam dunk.
As expected, in game #1 the Brewers starter, Freddy Peralta, had an excellent outing. We didn’t expect Eduardo Rodriguez to be able to keep up, given his past results this season, but he did. Despite a solid outing from Rodriguez, the Diamondbacks could not wake up the bats and suffered a narrow 1-run loss.
Game #2 started better for the Brewers than we had anticipated. Starter Myers has struggled in his first innings in most of his games, but set down Diamondbacks’ batter after batter. Brandon Pfaadt continued his struggles of late and gave up 8 runs in the first 2 innings. That meant the game, and series, was soon out of reach. This game was probably the biggest disappointment in the whole series.
Game #3 was looking good for a long time, but in the end the D-Backs just narrowly escaped from what could have been a humiliating late innings defeat and series sweep, when the bullpen struggled immensely to secure a win.
All in all, the Brewers’ series put the Diamondbacks fans’ and players’ feet back on the ground of reality.
Huge disappointment in Denver.
But did we really? The Diamondbacks went on to face the Rockies in Denver, whom we had been bashing this entire season. Ah, this was going to be easy peasy. Corbin Carroll’s comments after game #3 in Denver could show that the Diamondbacks might have underestimated their opponent: “I think getting swept here would not have been what we were thinking coming into Colorado.”
On a negative note, the Diamondbacks’ offence was too streaky in the hot hit environment of Denver and our bullpen has been terrible. From the positive side of things, Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez had solid outings once again, Pavin Smith still has a hot bat and Gabriel Moreno is back in the lineup.
The Brewers had a much better series than the Diamondbacks and beat the Phillies 2-1, despite being out hit 25-18. Starters Aaron Civale, Frankie Montas and Freddy Peralta all had solid outings. In the final match of the series, the Brewers achieved a narrow win over Philadelphia and clinched the NL Central title. Maybe that takes off some steam from this series, who knows.
In the Wild Card standings all teams seem to scratch their wins together whenever possible, with the Mets currently on the best streak. The Diamondbacks hold a 2 game lead over Atlanta Braves.
While the Diamondbacks play the Brewers, this is the schedule for our competitors:
- The Padres host the Chicago White Sox in a 3-game series, so they could easily extend their lead over the other Wild Card contenders. After that they could easily challenge the Dodgers for the NL West lead at Dodger stadium.
- The Mets host the Phillies for a 4-game set. After that they will play the Braves in a possible 3-game all or nothing series.
- The Braves still need to wrap up their series against the Reds today, but will then be eager to sweep the Marlins in Miami, before settling things with the Mets in the all or nothing series.
Matchups.
Game #1 Thu 09/19 4:15 PM MST, Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Tobias Myers (MIL).
- Brandon Pfaadt. 29 GS, 166.2 IP, 9 W-9 L, 4.81 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 4.10 K/BB.
- Tobias Myers. 24 G, 23 GS, 126.0 IP, 8 W-5 L, 3.07 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 3.48 K/BB.
It is a rematch from 5 days ago, when Pfaadt utterly failed and Myers cruised. Here is what was written in the previous preview:
The splits definitely do not favour rookie Myers against Arizona. The first inning is normally the toughest inning for him, having troubles knocking the first batter out, especially against lefties and even more in away games. Sounds like a good day for Corbin Carroll to earn himself the MVP award for this game, and otherwise maybe one of Ketel or Joc.
Myers has been on a journey to the big leagues ever since being drafted out of high school in 2016 by Baltimore. He was traded a couple of times and enjoyed time in the Tampa Bay and Cleveland farms as well, renowned for their pitching development, until landing in Milwaukee after being dumped by both the Giants and White Sox. His velocity has apparently been up and down all these years. Now he sits at a 93mph average in the MLB, but given his inconsistencies in the past, it might be an enjoy-while-you-still-can-campaign for him. He does not give away many free passes and while his fastball might be “meh”, his secondary stuff (slider, changeup) have been quite successful in the majors this season. Third time up is a charm here as well, reason why he normally doesn’t make it out of the 6th inning.
Game #2 Fri 09/20 5:10 PM MST, Zac Gallen (ARI) vs TBD.
- Zac Gallen. 26 GS, 137.0 IP, 12 W-6 L, 3.61 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 2.75 K/BB.
- TBD.
It is not clear yet who might start for the Brewers in this game, although this too could be another copy of Zac’s outing last time, when he went up against DL Hall.
Game #3 Sat 09/21 4:10 PM MST, Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Aaron Civale (MIL).
- Merrill Kelly. 11 GS, 63.0 IP, 4 W-0 L, 4.00 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 2.72 K/BB.
- Aaron Civale. 12 GS, 63.2 IP, 5 W-2 L, 3.68 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 2.76 K/BB.
Merrill had another solid outing last time, this time against the Rockies and the tough Denver environment. He will face Aaron Civale who is somewhat bouncing back from a lost year in Tampa Bay, proof that not every pitcher becomes Houdini over there. Civale was traded by the Rays back in early July to patch the rotation and has been a useful contributor at the backend of the Brewers’ rotation, outpitching his FIP.
Game #4 Sun 09/22 11:10 AM MST, Jordan Montgomery (ARI) vs Frankie Montas (MIL).
- Jordan Montgomery. 24 G, 20 GS, 112.2 IP, 8 W-7 L, 6.23 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 1.83 K/BB.
- Frankie Montas. 9 GS, 50.2 IP, 3 W-3 L, 3.55 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB. (for Milwaukee)
Jordan Montgomery will try and keep the Diamondbacks afloat in this final matchup of the series, but certainly won’t have an easy task as Frankie Montas has been solid for the Brewers ever since coming over from the Reds. His basic peripherals aren’t that much different from the ones in Cincinnati, although he also allows less hits, but not pitching in Great American Ball Park probably helps the more palatable ERA.