The Wild Card beckons.
The Giants are eliminated from being a Wild Card. In September, they did something the Diamondbacks have never done – they lost three consecutive shutouts. This season, they played the Diamondbacks 10 times, losing 6 games.
They are in the role of spoilers. They have some excellent batters, which we will soon talk about.
The magic number is getting closer to zero.
What is the Diamondbacks’ magic number to lock-in the playoffs? On the morning of 23 September, it was 4. (It would have been 5 because the Braves would win a tiebreaker. But because the Braves play the Mets, and if the Braves have a winning streak that would make the magic number 5, the Mets would have 3 losses making only 4 D-back wins enough to eliminate the Mets).
I predict the Diamondbacks will win the series against the Giants. The phrase applies: “Any player, any time.” Who will be heroes?
Watch Donovan Walton at second base.
On Saturday, the Giants optioned Mario Luciano to the minors. While Luciano’s defense was worse than slightly bad, Donovan Walton is only slightly bad (negative 1 OAA in 57.2 innings at second base). Walton is worth watching to see if the Diamondbacks benefit from his fielding.
Who batted well when these teams played at Chase?
Looking at the players who are likely to play is this series, who were the best four batters on each team when these teams played at Chase (excluding bench players)? The following table shows the answer:
2024 Season, Dbacks vs Giants at Chase Field. Data from Baseball Savant.
If this season’s games at Chase are indicating future results, I expect these eight batters to make a difference in this series. Perhaps Pavin Smith will reach three home runs.
Game Matchups.
Monday, 6:40 PM, Eduardo Rodriguez vs Hayden Birdsong
Hayden Birdsong’s performance is unpredictable. In this season (his first in the Majors), Hayden Birdsongs’ game scores have ranged from 16 to 70. Half were above 50 and half were 50 and below.
Eduardo Rodriguez allowed only 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts. I predict 2 earned runs in this start.
On 22 September, FanGraph’s live scoreboard provided the following odds:
62.6% chance Diamondbacks win.
Tuesday, 6:40 PM Brandon Pfaadt vs Logan Webb
Logan Webb allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last five starts. My view is that the Diamondbacks’ batters will do better than 3 earned runs.
In Brandon Pfaadt last start (against the Brewers) he pitched 7 innings with 12 strikeouts and allowed 1 earned run. My view is that he will pitch just as well in this game, giving the Diamondbacks at least a 70% chance of winning.
On 22 September, FanGraph’s live scoreboard provided the following odds:
55.7% chance Diamondbacks win.
Wednesday, 6:40 PM Zac Gallen vs Mason Black
In Zac Gallen’s last start, he pitched very well except for the bottom of the fifth inning, when he allowed three home runs. Immediately after that, in the top of the sixth inning, the Diamondbacks hit a home run. I’m hoping the wind shifted making home runs easier for a short time.
In May, Mason Black made his debut in the Majors before returning to AAA. On 31 August he was back in the Majors. In 19.33 innings since his return, his ERA improved to 3.72.
On 22 September, FanGraph’s live scoreboard provided the following odds:
65.2% chance Diamondbacks win.