It all comes down to this
Baseball is a funny sport.
If you had told me in March that it would all come down to this series, I would have believed you. The Diamondbacks were the reigning National League Champions and had gotten better, but the Padres were a good team, and there was no realistic chance at the division (even if some writers on this site predicted 100 wins and a division title). It was frustrating, but seemed realistic.
But Baseball is a funny sport.
If you had told me in May that it would all come down to this series, I would have laughed at you and said something like this
I don’t want to say the season is over, but… it’s kind of feeling like the season is over
— ISH95 (@imstillhungry95) May 31, 2024
The Diamondbacks had choked. Their starting pitching was in shambles, some (idiots) were calling Carroll a bust, we were only just getting Perdomo back. Season was over. Reset
But Baseball is a funny sport
Against all odds, they stormed back from being at one point seven games under .500 and the fourth worst team in the National League to being in or effectively tied for a playoff spot for the bulk of the last two months of the season. But despite their electric turn around, the Padres, Mets, and Braves all kept pace with them, and now it all comes down to this.
Because Baseball is a funny sport.
As I’m writing this, most of the teams involved in the playoff chase are holding their cards very close to their chests. All four teams have only announced their starters for the first game. Kelly for the Diamondbacks, Darvish for the Padres, Fried for the Braves, Manaea for the Mets. Should be well pitched games all around the league tonight.
Ryne Nelson could be an option for the Diamondbacks, as the young righty was activated from the IL, though as of writing, I do not believe the Diamondbacks have confirmed his role with the team for the remainder of the season. Bullpen reinforcement could be just as likely, with potentially Rodriguez and Pfaadt filling in the final two starts of the season.
Like it has been for most of the season, the offense is going to be the cornerstone for this series. They built their resurgence off the backs off Carroll rounding back into form, Eugenio Suarez being one of the best players in the game on the second half, and Ketel Marte being the best player not named Ohtani in the National League, until his injury.
What does the path to the playoffs look like? We’ll lets take a look at some numbers from Jack Sommer’s great article about this, adapted to account for the the win against the Giants that came after publishing
If the Diamondbacks sweep. It’s over, good night, see you in October. Easy. Unrealistic given the quality of opponent we are facing this weekend. Possible though!
If they win this series, the Braves have to go 4-1 and the Mets will need to go 3-2.
Lose the series, it’s still possible, but the Braves would only need to go 3-2, and the Mets can make it happen with 2-3.
Get swept and… well lets just say don’t get swept and we don’t have to worry about it.
Easy enough. Shall we?