Will the Diamondbacks win the series?
This season, before scoring 18 runs in two games, the Marlins had the lowest runs scored per game (3.62) of any Diamondbacks opponent. Because the Diamondbacks played four teams that were acoring at least 1 run per game above league average, I’m feeling optimistic!
Will the Diamondbacks win the series?
Positives:
- The Diamondbacks are the better team. They are projected to win about 14 games more than the Marlins (86 vs 72). My view is the Diamondbacks will win more games than projected (and more than the last two seasons).
- This season, the Diamondbacks have scored more runs per game (5.12 vs 4.33).
Challenges:
- It’s a home game for the Marlins. In this season’s home games their win loss record is 6-4.
- The Diamondbacks offense may be at less than 100% because Ketel Marte is not back from the injured list.
- The Diamondbacks pitching has been inconsistent.
- The Marlins are good at developing pitchers. A wild card is that one or more of their pitchers might pitch much better than projected.
Marlins to watch during the series
Matt Mervis and Otto Lopez. This season, they account for more than half the Marlins home runs.
Anthony Bender. He is their closer. This season he has allowed one earned runs in 7.1 innings pitched. He inherited five runners and two scored.
The rebuilding Marlins face the contending Diamondbacks.
The Marlins are in a rebuild season. Two points:
- “Miami’s offseason began with a big internal housecleaning, as the Marlins parted ways with their entire coaching staff, and several behind-the-scenes employees ranging from the team’s dietician to the traveling secretary.” — Mark Polishuk , MLBTR
- They have a young team. The following table shows the young ages of most of their their batting lineup and their starting pitchers (as of 6 April).
As of 6 April. Data from Baseball Reference.
The Marlins appear worse than last season, despite an optimistic projection.
Last season, the Marlins won 62 games. This season, as of 11 April, FanGraphs projected them to win 72 games, finishing ahead of the Rockies and White Socks. The major reason for the projected improvement is predicting an increase from 3.93 to 4.54 runs scored per game (while runs allowed stays about the same, 5.19 to 5.22 runs allowed per game).
There is a reason to think the Marlins will win less games than last season. In their first 13 games, they scored 3.62 runs per game (which is less than last season). Perhaps they will win less than 72 games.
The Marlins record in 1-run games is 4-2. However in 1-run games, 3 of the wins were against a weak Pirate team, and all 3 wins were from walk-off runs.
The Diamondbacks are clearly better than 2023.
Wins. I feel confident that the Diamondbacks are better than 2023, when they played in the World Series.
Pitching. This season, my expectation is their pitching will be improved. The acquisition of Burnes will improve the rotation. The acquisition of Beeks will continue to improve the bullpen.
Batting. This season, their batting will be improved (even with a regression towards the mean from last season’s league leading 886 runs scored.)
A Quick Look at Pitching.
All days: How well do the Marlins’ relievers pitch? Can they hold a lead? Can they prevent insurance runs by the Diamondbacks? The context of those questions is relief pitcher Wins Above Average (Diamondback positive 0.6 WAA ranked 4th in the Majors, while Marlin negative 0.4 WAA ranked 19th in the Majors).
And Diamondbacks’ relievers have better FIP (2.56 vs 5.07) and xFIP (2.66 vs 5.28).
Tuesday.
I’m feeling confident that Merrill Kelly will pitch well in this game for the Diamondbacks. Ignoring one game, this season his ERA is 2.38 with zero homers allowed. The ignored game was against the Yankees, who came into the Diamondbacks series after hitting 15 home runs in three games (they hit 3 more against Kelly).
Connor Gillispie will pitch for the Marlins. In his first three starts, his ERA was 3.86.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
Wednesday.
Brandon Pfaadt will pitch for the Diamondbacks. In his first three starts his ERA was 3.50.
Max Meyer will pitch for the Marlins. In his first three starts his ERA was 2.00.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Marlins.
Thursday.
Eduardo Rodriguez will pitch for the Diamondbacks. In his first three starts his ERA was 4.86. Underlying metrics show that each game he improved. This season his home run per fly ball improved from .330 to .250 to .182. Also, his HR9 improved from 3.4 to 1.7 to 1.1.
Edward Cabrera will pitch for the Marlins. His season debut was delayed by blisters on his finger. On 11 April, he allowed 2 earned runs in 5.2 innings (ERA 3.18).
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Marlins.