Off to Wrigley we go
It’s definitely a little odd that, by the end of the weekend, the D-backs will have played the Cubs seven times, without going up against anyone in our own division, for even a single game. But them’s the scheduling. After splitting the four games at Chase Field, the teams have performed similarly. Each have won ten times, though the Cubs have a couple more losses on their record. But it’s still good enough for Chicago to lead the NL Central – despite a win percentage which would put them behind everyone bar the Rockies in the furnace which is the NL West this year. I mean, after this morning’s D-back win over the Marlins, here are the National League standings.
Yep: Arizona would currently lead the Central or East. But instead they are clinging on to the last wild-card spot. This is, again, partly due to the lack of games against each other. There have been just six intra-division games in the West, the Dodgers and Padres each sweeping the Rockies. But the D-backs have held their own elsewhere, going 6-4 against opponents at or better than .500. Facing the Cubs again will be another test, though they (and my fantasy baseball team!) suffered a hammer blow, with the news that Justin Steele will miss the rest of the season. But for a view from the Wrigley Field bleachers, we’re delighted to have Al Yellon, one of the longest-tenured SB Nation managers, give us his preview:
The Cubs stand 12-9 and in first place in the NL Central as this series begins.
That’s pretty good, but it’s even better than it looks, because 18 of the Cubs’ first 21 games have been played against teams expected to contend for postseason position this year: six vs. the Padres, five vs. the Dodgers, four vs. the Diamondbacks and three vs. the Rangers.
Since the Cubs and D-backs split four games at Chase Field in March, in fact, the Cubs are just one back of the Padres and Giants for the best record in the NL at 10-5.
They have done this largely on the back of the bats, as they lead all of MLB in runs with 99 in that span. Kyle Tucker has been doing Kyle Tucker things and is batting .301/.410/.578. Of late, the Cubs have had key contributions from Pete Crow-Armstrong, who hit three home runs on the Cubs’ just-completed road trip, and Michael Busch, who hit .308/.333/.769 on that road trip, also with three home runs. PCA also provides baserunning speed and highlight-reel defense in center field.
The Cubs will have to figure out how to replace the considerable contributions of Justin Steele, who will have elbow surgery soon (not clear yet if it’s TJS) and miss the rest of the season. They do have some starting pitching depth this year, unlike 2024, and got a solid start out of Colin Rea against the Dodgers.
The bullpen has again been shaky, as it was last year, and as you saw in the final game of the series at Chase Field in March, when Cubs relievers got smacked for an eight-run eighth. Jed Hoyer called for reinforcements before the final game of the Padres series Wednesday, but the results weren’t any better.
At this writing, Rea, Ben Brown and Jameson Taillon are listed as the Cubs’ three starters against Arizona at Wrigley this weekend, where the weather will have its usual Chicago April craziness — warm and windy Friday, then chilly Saturday and Sunday.
Game previews: all games start at 11:20 am Arizona time
Game 1: Corbin Burnes vs. Colin Rea
As Al noted, Rea became the replacement in the rotation for Justin Steele, moving from the Cubs bullpen. He allowed one run over 3.2 innings, on four hits and a walk with five Ks. Rea threw 68 pitches there, so may still be on an 80-85 pitch count for Friday. Expect Geraldo Perdomo to use up most of them. 🙂 Meanwhile, Burnes delivered his first quality start as a D-back against the Brewers, albeit the bare minimum in both innings pitched (6) and earned runs allowed (3). The main improvement might have been a season-low in walks allowed (2) by Burnes, though he did only strike out three batters. The overall Game Score of 53 was his best yet, but we definitely want to see more from our well-paid ace.
Game 2: Zac Gallen vs. Ben Brown
Similarly, Brown started off in the bullpen for Chicago, but has made three starts since, so should be fully stretched out. He has a 2-1 record, though in the two wins received a total of thirty-four runs of support. In the latter, Brown played his part, blanking the Dodgers for six frames, as Chicago inflicted the biggest shutout in Dodger Stadium history (16-0). Gallen has alternated good and bad starts so far this year, which does not augur well for Saturday, since he is coming off a quality start against the Brewers. We saw against the Yankees how good Gallen can be. Which makes it all the more frustrating, the times when takes his mound and falls far short of that standard. Here’s to that Zac showing up here.
Game 3: Merrill Kelly vs. Jameson Taillon
Finally, Arizona will see Taillon, whom they beat in the 8-1 finale of the set at Chase Field. His results since then have been better, with two quality starts and a near-miss. Both he and Kelly have seen their numbers so far inflated by the “one bad start” trope. Interestingly, Taillon has gone through two TJ procedures, so might be able to advise team-mate Steele as he makes his way through another lengthy rehab. Kelly delivered his best start of the year on Monday, striking out nine Marlins over six innings of one-run ball. But as Al noted, the Cubs have been hitting their way to victory, and their line-up will present Merrill with a significantly tougher challenge in the series finale.
How do predict the series will go?