Likely, the Diamondbacks will win the series.
It’s the same Rays as last season.
Most of the Rays’ roster is nearly the same as last season, when they won 80 games.
This season’s biggest improvement was the return of Shane McClanahan from his second Tommy John surgery. Roster Resource shows that in late March he went back on the IL with a tricepts nerve-related issue.
This season’s second biggest improvement was signing infielder Ha-Seong Kim. His two-year $29 Million guarantee is the largest the Rays have ever given to a position player. He ended last season with shoulder surgery for a torn labrum and he is expected to debut for the Rays in May.
Will the Diamondbacks win the series?
Positives:
- It’s a home game for the Diamondbacks.
- This season, the Diamondbacks have scored more runs per game (5.45 vs 4.27) (games through 20 April).
- The Rays lost 6 of their last 10 games (games through 20 April).
Challenges:
- The Diamondbacks offense may be at less than 100% because Ketel Marte is not back from the injured list.
- The Diamondbacks pitching has been inconsistent.
Diamondback to watch this series.
If Alek Thomas hits a triple, he will pull into a tie with Mickey Moniak for the most triples in the league.
Rays to watch during the series.
Jose Caballero. Bench player that the Diamondbacks acquired in the 7th round of 2017 draft. This season he plays for the Rays.
Junior Caminero, third baseman. His bat speed is at the 100th percentile. This season he hit 4 home runs and his OPS+ is 148. Yet he is a below average defender at third base, with negative 3 DRS and negative 5 OAA.
Chandler Simpson, recently called up from minors. His running speed is awesome. This season in AAA baseball, he stole 8 bases in 17 games. Last season, in AA and A+ baseball he stole 104 bases in 110 games.
Drew Rasmussen, starting pitcher. He is having a career best season. His ERA iss 0.87 after 4 games. He will pitch in this series.
What to look for each day.
The Rays are playing in the Yankees’ minor league stadium (open air). Things for eagle-eyed observers to look for:
- Can they spot an empty seat? Baseball Reference shows attendance at exactly 10,046 (likely full capacity) for every Ray’s home game this season. That is far fewer than the Ray’s average attendance of last season (16,515 per game).
- Can they spot any Yankees signs or customizations? 130 people worked “around the clock” for 5 days to remove/hide Yankees signs/customizations and add Rays’ signs. Spoiler – at least one item was off-limits (the George Steinbrenner statue).
All three games start at 6:40 PM MST. At the time of writing, all pitching matchups were TBA, but best guesses follow.
Tuesday.
Zack Littel has a 5.48 ERA in 23 innings. His $5.7 million salary is by far the highest pitcher salary on the Rays. In May of 2023, he was selected off waivers from the Red Sox.
Brandon Pfaadt has a 3.04 ERA in 23.2 innings. He was drafted by the Diamondbacks in 2020. He is a “homegrown” pitcher.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
Wednesday.
Taj Bradley has a 5.24 ERA in 22.1 innings. The Rays drafted him in 2018.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.09 ERA in 22 innings. In December 2023, the Diamondbacks signed him as a free agent.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
Thursday.
Drew Rasmussen has a 0.87 ERA in 20.2 innings. He is on a Baseball Reference list of pitchers with a career ERA of 3 or better and a 10-win season. He was one 10-win season.
Corbin Burnes has a 4.64 ERA in 21.1 innings. As of 19 April, his career ERA was 3.22 and he has four 10-win seasons.
Although first glance would be that this matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Rays, my view is that the matchup is very close to even.