And if so, should they keep rebuilding?
As Ben noted yesterday, starting pitching seems to be at a premium this winter. We’re not just seeing free-agent pitchers make out, signing deals like Max Fried’s $218 million, eight-year deal to the Yankees, or Blake Snell’s $182 million contract for only five years with the Los Angeles Dodgers. There was also the trade that sent Garret Crochet to the Red Sox, with the White Sox getting a haul of prospects back. MLB.com valued the return for Chicago as two players ranked in the top 60 across all baseball (#25 C Kyle Teel and #54 OF Braden Montgomery), plus two others well-ranked in Boston’s farm system (#11 INF Chase Meidroth and #14 RHP Wikelman Gonzalez).
Given this, the question should be asked: would it be best for the Diamondbacks to take advantage of this seller’s market, and trade Zac Gallen? He is all but certain to be a free-agent at the end of next season. The fact he is a client of Scott Boras, combined with the large deals being signed this winter, seem to make his departure highly likely. If that happens, the D-backs will get, at best, a compensatory draft pick through making Gallen a qualifying offer (as they will probably get for Christian Walker this winter). Dealing him now would likely bring back a better return, albeit at the obvious cost of weakening the team and their chances of contending for the 2025 season.
On the one hand, it seems odd for a team that won 89 games last year to be thinking about rebuilding. But the reality is, the team lost Randal Grichuk, Kevin Newman, Joc Pederson and Christian Walker to free agency. Between them, that means the D-backs would have to replace almost ten wins by bWAR, simply to stand still. Given most estimates have the team with about $30 million to spend, that’s going to pose quite a challenge for Mike Hazen and his crew in the front-office. We recently saw a suggestion in the comments here, “The Diamondbacks should go full blow up with how insane the NL is.” I can see the sense, especially if you’re in the “better too early than too late” camp.
The big difference between Crochet and Gallen is, obviously, that Zac only has one year of control left. But some of their 2024 stats were startlingly similar. Crochet tossed 146 innings with an ERA+ of 115. Gallen tossed 148 innings with an ERA+ of… 115. [I’m therefore a little unclear why Crochet had more than 50% as much bWAR as Gallen, 4.1 vs. 2.7. I understand fWAR differing, since it’s based on FIP, where Crochet had a clear edge. bWAR, less so] Crochet is younger, but has a lot less of a track record – this was his first season starting in the majors. He also had Tommy John surgery in April 2022. On the other hand, he’ll be much cheaper than Gallen in 2024, arbitration salaries estimated at $2.9m vs. $14.1m.
It’s worth noting that Zac is not the only player who is in his final season under team control by the D-backs. Merrill Kelly and Eugenio Suarez both had team options for 2025 exercised, but will be free agents at the end of next year. Kelly has been worth 13.5 bWAR so far, while earning only $32.5 million, so I can imagine him wanting to test the free-agent market, even though he’ll be 37 by the next World Series. Jordan Montgomery will also be leaving, for good or bad. It’s going to leave the Arizona rotation looking extremely thin for 2026, without any gilt-edged prospects in the minors to replace them [only two of the D-backs current top ten are pitchers] That might be past the end of a current contention window.
To be clear, I do not expect the team to be shopping Gallen. But there is precedent for this kind of deal: Hazen traded all-time fan favorite Paul Goldschmidt while there was still a year left on his contract, and the D-backs were coming off a winning season then too (albeit only just). I would certainly be listening to offers, because Gallen’s value – along with those of the other impending free-agents – is only going to go down once the season starts. The optics of, effectively, waving the white flag before Opening Day, after a 89-win season, would not be good, to put it mildly. But as the Goldy trade showed, Hazen doesn’t seem to care about fan sentiment – and I’m inclined to agree with him.
If it happens, I think it’s more likely later in the winter, when the teams that have missed out on the big free-agents will be desperate for a consolation prize, and more likely to overpay. It may be a case of first seeing how the team does in replacing Walker et al – if Hazen is confident the new players will keep the D-backs competitive, then he will likely hold on to Gallen for another (final?) roll of the dice. Who knows, maybe Roki Sasaki will decide Arizona is the best fit, in which case extend that window as far as is possible. Hey, we can all dream, right? But GMing is about hoping for the best, while preparing for the worst. That might mean pulling the trigger on the current roster sooner than fans would like.
Below is a poll of possible options with regard to what might happen to Gallen in the coming year. Let us know which you think is most likely – not what you WANT to happen, please note – and explain your choice in the comments.