The Christian Walker era ends, with Josh Naylor arriving
Christian Walker is no more. How will you remember his time here?
Spencer: His mother’s meatballs. Oh and his constant drive to get better I suppose.
Makakilo: Mostly I will remember what I wrote about him. Article summaries and links follow:
October of 2024 article. Article explores whether Pavin Smith can replace Walker (instead it will be Josh Naylor). Three points:
- Pavin Smith improved his defense.
- He had more home runs per PA than Walker.
- His run expectancy per PA was the highest D-back (except ADC) and much higher than Walker.
May of 2022 article. Article considered whether Walker will be an All-Star that season. (He was not, but he won a Gold Glove, and hit the most homers and most RBIs on the Diamondbacks team.)
December of 2021 article. Walker’s tender offer was surprising, but it was a good move because he will likely perform above projections.
January 2021 player review. Walker has four Characteristics:
- Fierce and tough.
- Prepared and confident.
- Aware of differences between success and failure
- Full bag of skills.
Also, article listed 12 highlights from 2014 to 2019
November 2018 player review. Walker was a pinch-hit specialist, and power was his calling card. Also, his injury could have been much worse.
November 2017 player review. Walker’s hitting was his strength. A bench role makes sense.
DBacksEurope: He made sure that we didn’t miss Goldy that much. Great defender, ice cold bat in the postseason, too streaky from time to time.
Preston: He was the second-consecutive first baseman to go from being serviceable with the glove to the best in the game. He was solidly above-average through the entire time he was starting here (with the exception of 2021); 15.4 bWAR and 5.1 WAA. While Goldy’s Cardinals tenure was better by a somewhat significant amount (22.9 bWAR and 11.5 WAA) Walker was much cheaper, and in the three years of relative contention, Walker was the better player. (Goldy was better, in some cases substantially better, in the other three seasons.)
Ben: He was an unheralded player who blossomed into a clubhouse leader and fan favorite. I will remember him as the poster child for players being given as many opportunities as possible. He was blocked by veterans at every stage of his career and continued to persevere until a roster spot was finally cleared. I think there is something powerful about that fact and I’ll always remember him for his ability to improve his skills while providing consistency and leadership.
How do we feel about Josh Naylor as a replacement?
Spencer: I’ve made my stance clear: he’s been a favorite of mine for a while. He’s a great player in his prime. And he cost a fair amount.
Makakilo: As far as batting, I feel good. Last season, Josh Naylor was comparable to Walker in a few stats:
- 31 vs 26 home runs
- 108 vs 84 RBIs
- 118 vs 121 OPS+
As I wrote is a previous round table, there are two good reasons to be excited about Josh Naylor’s batting:
Reason 1: Josh Naylor is a power batter, especially with runners in scoring position (RISP). In 2024, Naylor’s HRs and RBIs were one of best in Majors per FanGraphs.
- 10 of 31 Home Runs were with RISP (31 HRs ranked #10 in the AL).
- 81 of 108 RBIs were with RISP (108 RBIs ranked #8 in the MLB).
Reason 2: 2023 was a breakout season for Josh Naylor. Then in 2024, despite that his BABIP fell from .326 to .246 (unlucky) his overall results stayed well above average (from 127 wRC+ to 118 wRC+). In 2025, if BABIP bounces back, he will exceed expectations.
As far as defense, Naylor (0 OAA and 0 runs prevented) fell short of Walker (13 OAA and 10 runs prevented). Perhaps worse defense could cost the Diamondbacks 1 win. I’m not concerned because Naylor could improve (batting and defense) and because the Diamondbacks are improved in other areas.
DBacksEurope: I think we are fine with that. Don’t really follow the AL and it is not like we signed a premium batter here, so I will adhere to the opinion of others.
Preston: Naylor will likely replace Walker’s bat, but my contention from the beginning is that he will need to take at least as much of a leap as Walker did defensively to be a true replacement. I see Naylor as a DH, and he’s certainly not going to replace the duo of Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk offensively. Here’s an interesting comparison:
Player A (excellent defender at premium position): .222/.275/.345/.620 against same-handed pitching, a tOPS+ of 89.
Player B (average at best defender at “unimportant” position): .236/.304/.369/.673 against same-handed pitching, a tOPS+ of 77.
Who is worth more to the team? Player A is Nick Ahmed, who most of us wanted platooned throughout his time here, and those numbers include all of his decline. Player B is Naylor, and I’ve been ridiculed for saying he needs platooned. He’s providing zero or negative defensive value and is only 53 points better for his career. (For reference, in 2018 Ahmed’s numbers against RHP were better than Naylor’s career figures against LHP by a slight amount, and in 466 plate appearances in 2019 Ahmed slugged 26 points higher against same handed pitching than Naylor has in 597 career plate appearances.) Naylor is good (not great) against right-handed pitching, but against left-handed pitching we’re getting peak Nick Ahmed without the defense (or possibly even slightly worse than peak Nick Ahmed.) Naylor’s ability to draw walks helps keep his offensive floor higher, but his total lack of speed could result in issues clogging the basepaths. Naylor has back-up catcher speed (seriously, Jose Herrera was just in the sixth percentile with Naylor in the seventh percentile.)
If the Diamondbacks had been a right-handed heavy team who needed a lefty bat to play first base and DH, Naylor was a great acquisition. As it is, they got a player who doesn’t defend or run the bases well and doesn’t hit well enough to be more than a platoon bat without some defensive value.
I seriously hope I’m proven wrong, and it turns out that he’s great against everyone and can adequately replace Walker’s defense. And he’s been better against LHP in 2023 and 2024. However, he’s also been platooned a lot, historically, and in those two seasons he started 69 of 99 games against LH starters, so we should expect him to start no more than ⅔ of the time against LHP, and probably not even that much.
Ben: I’m more in Preston’s camp than Spencer’s about Naylor. He’s an improvement over Pavin Smith in my opinion, but is a pale imitation of Walker and likely provides more of a higher floor than raising the performance ceiling for the team. The head-to-head comparison for last season is pretty striking as Naylor produced just over half of Walker’s bWAR in 22 more games while striking out less and hitting more home runs. It will be most noticeable on defense where Naylor may be a genuine hindrance overall, as Walker posted a 0.1 bdWAR while Naylor had a -1.5. For context, that placed Walker in the top-10 of first basemen in the game while the only players worse than Naylor were Ty France and our old friend Josh Bell.
There are some reasons for optimism despite everything I and the rest of my colleagues have said. He might be able to make up for his defensive deficiency with his bat as he’s a relatively patient hitter who doesn’t miss much (64th percentile whiff% in 2024) and who doesn’t strike out much (16.6% last year). In addition, he has impressive power as his .456 slugging in 2024 was in the top 10 while his 31 homers was only bested by Pete Alonso among other first basemen. Finally, because he’s in his walk year, there may be additional incentive for him to prove to the D-Backs and the rest of the league that he can take another step forward for the kind of payday he’s clearly seeking next offseason.
To what extent do we need a right-handed partner for him?
Spencer: Naylor needs no “partner.” Only a player who can give him a day off every once in a while. However the lineup could stand to add a right handed bat still.
DBacksEurope: I don’t think he needs a partner, but I expect the Diamondbacks to add a right-handed power bat for the DH position. Where is JDM?
Makakilo: Spencer and DBE are correct. My view is he does not need a partner because although he is better against right-handed pitchers, his sOPS+ of 100 (for LHPs) shows he is league average against left-handed pitchers. When the situation requires, pinch hitting may happen against left-handed pitchers.
Preston: I’ve obviously shown my hand on this one, and I’m in the minority. I do want to correct Makakilo, though: his sOPS+ of 100 was only for last season; he was even better (121) in 2023, but 47 in 2022, 41 in 2021, and 78 in 2019. Given the small number of plate appearances he’s gotten against LHP each year, it takes looking at the career numbers to get a decent sample size (his 597 career plate appearances is a full season, essentially.) Baseball-Reference does not provide sOPS+ across seasons.
However, Fangraphs usefully enables one to sort out multiple seasons. From 2019-2024, with at least 500 plate appearances against LHP, Josh Naylor ranks 168th out of 186, with a wRC+ of 89. Players better than him include Martin Maldonado, Kevin Newman, and Brandon Drury. We can hope that the last two years is a better indication of what he will do than the total time, but the reason why he looks league average is that players who are bad against LHP do not get very many plate appearances: of the 186 players with 500 plate appearances over that time span, 144 of them have performed average or better against LHP. And it’s not just wRC+. His ISO is 157th over that span, his wOBA is 173rd, and even his walk-rate (the thing most sustainable) is 126th.
Just 80 left-handed bats have even 300 plate appearances against LHP from 2019-2024. Among that group, Naylor is more middle-of-the-pack. He ranks 47th in wRC+, tied with Brandon Belt and Mike Yastrzemski. Players below him on that list are almost entirely players who are really good defensively or they’ve been guys who have bounced around. Joc Pederson has performed better against LHP than Naylor over those seasons, and the Diamondbacks platooned him last year. Jake McCarthy has better numbers against LHP than Naylor. It’s true that only 26 LHB are average or better against LHP. But those who are below average and get a lot of plate appearances are generally providing defensive value. Heck, Josh Rojas is just 8% worse than Naylor against LHP, with a superior walk rate, better baserunning, and better defense.
Makakilo: Josh Naylor’s batting had a breakthrough in 2023. My view is that 2023 and 2024 data should carry more weight. That recent data shows Naylor as average against left handed pitchers.
Ben: I think Preston hit the nail on the head. Naylor will likely be fine to mediocre against lefties, but it wouldn’t shock me if he gets pinch-hit for in certain situations to take advantage of the platoon advantage. I would be very surprised though if he were platooned on a consistent basis. I suspect they view Naylor as a name they can pencil into the lineup for 145-155 games and who gets pinch-hit for late in games against high-leverage relievers who have the platoon advantage. It is worth noting that Walker has almost exactly average platoon splits for his career so his 114 sOPS+ against lefties last year might have been a little bit of an outlier compared to the rest of his playing time.
He’s a free agent after this season. What’s the long-term solution?
Spencer: The long term solution probably isn’t in the organization currently. There are some prospects who have the potential to play solid first base, but they may or may not be ready by Opening Day 2026. I’d say currently the closest we have is Pavin Smith. I expect someone like Gino Groover ends up in the spot, but I also expect a slightly less likely solution is a long term free agent signing next winter if Groover goes the way of The Sunken Hispanic. I think Naylor makes the most sense but Vladdy could be the massive splash.
Now that I’ve said all that, Hazen will somehow find a way to make Alek Thomas into a top notch first baseman in the league.
DBacksEurope: Good question. Looking back I am sure Hazen has second thoughts about trading for Naylor instead of going after Lowe, who was dumped by the Rangers in Washington. That would have given us more time at first base. Next year we might have to trade again from some surplus, because the free agency market will see Vlad Guerrero Jr and the same veterans that were available this year, but a year older. Unless we resign or extend Naylor, who knows.
Spencer: DBE, Robert Garcia is a big breakout candidate. His Savant page is a whole lotta red. Cecconi’s is….let’s just say not. Lowe was “cheaper” currently, but in a matter of months these two deals could look very different than they do now. And I think Kendrick and Hazen are aware taking things one season at a time is probably the best operation for a club expected to have new ownership by 2030.
Makakilo: I liked Jim McLennan’s AZ Snake Pit article about Tim Tawa. In the comments, 1AZfan1 wrote, “…According to Statcast data available for Reno, Tawa’s average Exit Velocity (91.1 mph) was second-highest on the Aces for anyone with more than a smattering of appearances….”
Let’s compare Tim Tawa to three of the Diamondbacks’ first base players. Tim Tawa is the youngest. More importantly, how does his batting compare to the other three at the same age and level?
In the following table, the comparison shows that Tim Tawa has potential to be better than Tristin English, Pavin Smith and perhaps better than Josh Naylor. Caveats are that ages were not matched exactly and Naylor data is at the MLB level.
Preston: I’d love to see Tawa do well, if only because his dad is a reader and occasionally commenter on the site, something I don’t think we’ve had since Aaron Blair. But I will add a couple more names to the list as potential long-term solutions: Gavin Conticello and Demetrio Crisantes. Conticello won’t turn 22 until June, took a huge leap forward in the worst offensive environment the Diamondbacks have last season, and first base is probably his best position, although he was a pleasant surprise in the outfield. Crisantes won’t turn 21 until September and has yet to appear above Visalia, but all he does is get on base, and while second base is the more likely home for him going forward, he’s seen time at first as well.
My ideal solution would be persuading Adrian Del Castillo to move to first base, but if the organization hasn’t been able to do so yet, I don’t see why they would succeed after another year. Given that the organization traded away the presumed heir (and someone who would have been an ideal platoon partner for Naylor) in Deyvison De Los Santos, it’s likely to be stop-gap measures until Groover, Conticello, or someone else is ready.
Ben: I’m not sure there is a long term plan in place yet. Obviously, it would be ideal if one of the first base prospects the team has takes a significant step forward this season since the free agent market for first basemen next offseason is…not great. I like the idea of converting ADC to first base because I love his offensive skill set, but I’m hesitant given the equally thin depth the team has in high-end catching prospects at the moment. You could squint and see some promise from someone like Ivan Melendez, but his prospect stock is really fading after a subpar 2024 and Fall League performance. I was pretty high on Devyison De Los Santos and was sorely disappointed when he was included in the package that netted the D-Backs AJ Puk as he seemed like a very natural successor to Walker.
Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana and Naylor all cost about the same. Who’ll do best in 2025?
Spencer: My money is on Naylor by pure stats. He’s the youngest, still in his prime, and motivated to make himself a payday. However Goldy and more so Santana were signed to be teachers and role models for younger players and/or to accent the rest of the core. Naylor is expected to be part of the Arizona lineup core.
DBacksEurope: I can’t really add anything to what Spencer is mentioning. I had hoped for Goldy, but Naylor is probably the better solution for a team who is going for it in 2025.
Makakilo: Steamer projected Josh Naylor to be the best of the three. For details see the following table.
Preston: My hope is that Naylor has the best season. But I expect to see Goldy bounce back again. Plus, even though he had a down year last year, he was only 0.2 bWAR behind Naylor (1.2 fWAR). So it wouldn’t take much for him to surpass Naylor, unless Naylor also improves his performance. But Santana was worth a good bit more than either of them; 1 win better than Naylor by bWAR and 0.7 wins better by fWAR. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Nathanael Lowe (cheaper, with more years of control and acquired for basically the same as the Diamondbacks gave up for Naylor) having a better year than any of them.
Ben: It wouldn’t shock me if Naylor won out of the three given the combination of age, walk year, and team composition, but there’s a plausible argument for all three. Goldy is looking for a bounceback season that solidifies his legacy and at the least gets him a divisional crown or pennant to say nothing of a World Series ring.
What TV show has/had the best theme song?
Spencer: This one is hard for me. I spend my days at work listening to movie and tv show scores. I think few tv scores are as iconic and as excellent as Game of Thrones but I am partial to a different Ramin Djawadi tv score: Person of Interest. It’s unnerving at first which is the point and once you’ve seen the show, it was composed nearly perfectly.
Makakilo: My PC’s music has two theme songs: Galaxy Quest and Superman. They are the best, but only Superman was a TV show in real life.
DBacksEurope: Tour of Duty and its Paint It Black. Excellent combination. In the early 21st century I had the Knight Rider on my phone as ringtone, pretty catchy as well. So is the iconic theme of Twin Peaks I used to have as alarm to wake up. I am sure no one beats my answers.
Preston: Is anything more iconic or recognizable than Yakety Sax?