Time to reflect on the first half, and the All-Star festivities.
Grade the first half of the Diamondbacks season
Spencer: Solid C- for me. They have maintained positioning despite many injuries and poor play. I can’t go higher when the likes of Suarez, Cecconi and Blaze have been as bad as they have, but that’s not sunk the team the way it would’ve in 2021. Passable, but maybe not enough to extend the season.
Makakilo: To reach the playoffs, two imperatives are consistent offense and winning the series against the Padres and the Mets. In July, the Diamondbacks significantly improved their offense and won a series against the Padres. In July, they improved their grade to an A (three blown saves took away the +). Averaging in April-June, their grade is a B+.
The following is an updated table from the 30 June roundtable. It shows that in the last 2 weeks the FanGraphs projections changed so they are a lot closer to my optimistic projections.
Although starting pitching was poor in the first half of the season (due to injuries), from 30 June to 12 July they were among the best 13 teams in hits allowed, home runs allowed, walks, OBP, SLG, and wOBA.
Ben: Not to stretch the metaphor too much, but I think you have to grade on a curve. Coming into the season, expectations were deservedly ratcheted up because of the free agency and trade activity in the offseason and thus most of the first half can be considered a disappointment – somewhere in the C/C- range. But at the same time, part of that disappointment is because of the poor luck the team has had – especially in the starting rotation’s health – which has to factor into any evaluation of the season to this point. And the fact that the team is still competitive speaks to the depth and resilience of the coaching staff and the roster. Overall, I’m still disappointed by the results of the first half. There’s been plenty of excitement, but far, far too much inconsistency so I’ll settle on a C+/B- line.
Jim: I give it a B. Back before the season, the SnakePit writers averaged out at 86.7 wins, but that was more optimistic (for understandable reasons) than Vegas, which projected 83.5 wins, though ZIPS was almost in line at 86 wins. On that basis, 82 wins would be underachieving, but doesn’t take into account a huge difference is the rotation from hoped for to actial. Our anticipated #1-4 pitches would be expected to have started 78 games so far. But Zac Gallen (15), Merrill Kelly (4), Jordan Montgomery (13) and Eduardo Rodiriguez (0) have actually appeared in only 32, leaving more than half of all the team’s games, 46 in total, to be filled in by #6 starters or below. Being above .500 under those circumstance is, frankly, miraculous.
Who is the key to the team in the second half?
Spencer: Consistency across the board. It’s no single player, but instead the team playing quality ball together. That means young rotation arms taking steps forward while waiting on the unlikely return of “established” players. That means the bullpen covering for each other when someone has a rough week. That means the offense scoring 3-4 runs regularly and being able to add to that total when necessary.
Makakilo: Spencer was on-target. I’ll add what Torey Lovullo said after Friday’s game:
“…Be adaptable. It’s part of our culture. Making adjustments. It’s part of our culture. So, it’s nice to see us come to the other side a little bit…” – Torey Lovullo, 12 July.
Jim: I’m actually going to answer the question. 🙂 Merrill Kelly. We need him to come back and be the anchor in the rotation; Zac Gallen has been very inconsistent since his return, to the point that I am wondering if there’s still a problem with him. But ten starts from Kelly, giving the team a chance to win on each, rather than crossing our fingers and hoping Ryne Nelson can figure it out, is going to be a huge boost, He’ll also likely go deeper into games, which will help a bullpen that was overtaxed in the first half. .
What are your biggest concerns for after the break?
Spencer: Continued inconsistency. I can’t see the team of the first half staying in the wild card race.
Makakilo: When starting pitchers return from the injured list, will they pitch to their full capabilities? Anticipated returns follow:
- 19 July, Jordan Montgomery
- 8 August, Merrill Kelly
- 9 August, Eduardo Rodriguez
Jim: I share Makakilo’s concern, but I’m also worried about Paul Sewald, whose FIP has been significantly higher than his ERA (4.57 vs. 3.30). We’ve seen what can happen with him, and worry that, if there are further problems, Torey Lovullo will take too long to make a change. That’s something we can ill afford in what looks likely to be a very close wild-card race, where every win is potentially crucial.
Should Christian Walker have been an All-Star?
Spencer: Everything about the All Star Game is a joke to me. With the exception of honoring the best players in the league. Christian Walker deserves that honor. Does he need to play in some arbitrary showcase of nothingness? Not for me to be happy.
Makakilo. Yes. The following table shows my two picks for the NL in the All-Star game would be Bryce Harper and Christian Walker. Data through 12 July from Baseball Savant.
Jim: When we discussed this previously, I suggested seriously revamping the fan vote. I’d like to apologize to MLB fans, because on the evidence of this selection, it’s the players, etc. who are idiots. Even though the rules require an All-Star from every team, Alonso should never have been in the discussion as the Mets representative. If it was genuinely about the best players, than Walker would have been in Arlington. But there’s clearly more going on behind the scenes, which kinda sucks for small market teams,.
Would you change anything about the All-Star events?
Spencer: To me, the All Star events are a huge joke. So here’s the bare minimum it would take for me to consider paying attention to anything surrounding the “event.”
- Remove it from mid season and make it an end of season game
- Jerseys should be a teams City Connect one rather than some bleh “creation” by the league and host team (if you don’t have a city connect, you can’t play)
- Add other skills to the home run derby (a la the Futures Game events this year)
- No fan voting. Players elect the starting lineups, managers select the rest of the roster.
- Consider making it meaningful again – this can be home field advantage in the World Series, or something else, but if it’s going to be a game played, make the players take it seriously; otherwise just admit it isn’t for fans and stop shoving it down our throats.
Makakilo: I repeat what I wrote in the 10 June Roundtable. “Undo the change that stopped the All-Star-Game managers from having a say in completing their rosters (after the voting).”
Ben: I’ll second Spencer’s fifth point. I miss when the ASG actually meant something – even something as trivial as who gets to host the next available game or draft. Right now, the game feels devoid of substance and comes off as more of a joint press conference, especially with the number of on-field interviews we and the players will be subjected to during the game.
Jim: The problem with making it “meaningful” is then you need to abandon team representation. And just wait until a player gets injured. You thought Keith Olbermann whining about the WBC was bad? I’m not sure moving it to the end of the season would help: look at the NFL, where the Pro Bowl is close to the least-watched such contest, compared to its parent sport. Though that would at least remove the half-season All Stars, who make it in for an unsustainable first half, then evaporate from view after the break. But here’s a thought. Select five players for each roster at random from all those who appeared in the first half, as “Journeymen All-Stars”. The game shouldn’t just be about honoring very well-paid superstars. Or have a fixed amount, two players per team: fans pick one, players/coaches pick one.
Hot enough for ya? How are you coping?
Spencer: It is currently 69° with 90% humidity here. I think I’ll manage. I cope by spending time outside, sweating my a** off, enjoying all the metro parks we have to offer!
Makakilo: It’s 7 am on Oahu and the temperature is a cool 73 degrees. The sky is overcast and it will rain this morning. The normal daily high temperature is about 85 degrees. Later today I will sweat while playing pickleball.
Ben: Yeah, I coped by moving to the Upper Midwest. It’s fantastic right now (notwithstanding today’s heat index of 100), but check back with me in January or February when my giblets will still be frozen and there’s no end in sight.
Jim: May a heat dome infest all your climates! 🙂 Me? Denial, mostly. Did head up to North East Arizona last weekend, which was a good 25-30 degrees cooler, and with remarkable amounts of space (below). Quite why we built Phoenix down where it is, escapes me. Sucks to be back there now, but pulling the blinds and counting the days till Halloween is a basic survival strategy!
