Lourdes was the man in 2024. Will he be again this season?
How did the first year of Lourdes Gurriel’s unexpected return go?
Spencer: Quite niftily.
DBacksEurope: Coincidence or not, I read Ben’s 2024 and my 2023 player review of Gurriel yesterday. His 2024 performance was an extension of his 2023 performance, so I would say he fulfilled expectations. He isn’t a guy you write about, he is not that spectacular except for the vibe he brings, so in his sense that is a good sign.
Wesley: He improved slightly (2.2 fwar in ‘24 vs 1.9 in ‘23) from the year prior, so I would say about as well you could expect considering it technically was a career year.
1AZfan1: Solid. Mostly healthy and mostly effective. I think it’s safe to say he provided a surplus on his salary for the year (about $4.5M per Win Above Replacement).
Makakilo: His performance was similar to the previous season. But his impact was better: his WPA increased from .021 to .091. Overall, his return went well.
Ben: Better than I expected from him honestly. I was a little wary of the signing at the time given that he was coming off what seemed like a possible career year and was entering his age-30 season. But he was a slightly more balanced hitter in 2024 as his OBP and BA bumped up (.322 and .279 versus .309 and .261 respectively) while his slugging dipped from .463 to .435. There were some concerning signs though too on the other side of the ball as his defensive value slipped from the highs he established in 2023. He rated pretty highly on all of the Statcast categories (range, arm value, and arm strength) in 23, but took a serious step back with his arm last year – a sure sign of aging.
James: I think it went almost perfectly as far as matching up to what was expected of him when he was given the deal. His infectious personality and his clubhouse leadership are important to the club. They also have a reliable bat that can hit many places in the batting order without sacrificing on defense too much. Over all, if he can maintain his 2023-24 levels for another two seasons, the Diamondbacks will have to consider themselves fortunate.
Lourdes has an opt-out after this season. Will he exercise it?
Spencer: I hope he does! Because it means he’ll have had a phenomenal year and sees money in his future!
DBacksEurope: He might leave 28MM on the table if he does (his 4th year is a club option). The final year isn’t guaranteed, of course, so he would have to beat at least 14MM in his next contract. He will be 32 next year and if he is more suitable as a platoon bat (see next question), Grichuk’s free agency trips show that platoon corner outfielders might find a tough market. On the other hand, Profar got a similar contract as Lourdes’ current one so it is possible. All in all, after writing this, I think he will opt out if he continues to perform like he has done in Arizona.
Wesley: As Spencer pointed out, that would mean he had a career year that proves he’s an everyday player. He’s not gonna get more money otherwise.
1AZfan1: Doubtful. Yes, if he goes out and has a 4+ WAR season like Profar did, he could potentially get a couple extra years at his current AAV, but last season’s 2.2 fWAR mark was a career high and I’d find it unlikely he’s able to pull it off. Though to be fair, Profar had his career year that no one saw coming last year so it is possible.
Makakilo: Hat tip to Spencer for a great answer! But will it happen? The ZiPS 80th percentile preseason projection was an OPS+ of 122, which could be enough to opt-out and get a better contract.
Ben: It wouldn’t shock me, but I’m with the rest of the staff that it would take a serious step forward to warrant it. There’s a pretty crowded group of solid outfielders set to hit free agency next year that are either younger, better, or both. If I had to place a bet on it, I’d take the bet that he won’t take the option, but I would love to be wrong!
James: If he repeats the level of performance he put together over the last two seasons, I would not be at all shocked to see him exercise the opt-out. If he does have another quality season like those two, he’ll be entering a fairly pedestrian free agent class for outfielders. Short of Kyle Tucker, he’ll stand out as one of the most reliable outfielders available with a proper mix of bat, defense, and age. I also expect that some of the upcoming free agents will sign extensions before the season is out. That will further dilute the market. On the other hand, if Gurriel slips even a little bit, he may decide to stay put and to see if he can earn that final club option.
He hit left-handers much better last year (.885 vs .697). Should he be platooned more?
Spencer: Possibly? I’m not opposed to Gurriel taking the DH platoon spot Grichuk had last year so Grichuk can play in the field more often. Pair him with Pavin and see what happens. I don’t necessarily care about this happening though. I trust Hazen and Torey to correctly utilize the guys they’ve chosen.
DBacksEurope: He is not like Pederson who rakes that well, gets a lot of money and you can platoon anyhow. His defence is nice in left so I would keep him out there, especially for the 14MM he makes. A platoon bat, to me, is more of a guy who makes less than 10MM lol
Wesley: I’m not opposed to it if it proves necessary.
1AZfan1: I doubt he’ll be platooned. He’s still a valuable bat that I trust more than Pavin/Alek/Jake to this point. If one of those three goes out and has a great first couple months while Lourdes scuffles against righties, I could see him get a few more off days against righties than we’ve usually seen. He’s still a very solid glove in left field so unless the bottom really falls out of the bat, I think running him out there most days is a good plan.
Makakilo: Two points.
- He should not platoon at DH because last season Grichuk was better vs LHP (.914 vs .885). And because Gurriel Jr. is a better fielder than Grichuk.
- He should probably not play any position but left field, and because my preference is for Corbin Carroll to play right field, I don’t see anyone to platoon with him in left field.
James: He is certainly trending that way. However, I would say that he should probably expect to be an everyday player – still, getting plenty of at-bats against right-handed pitching.He still brings solid defense and still has enough success against righties that he is still playable. If he continues to have a widening margin between his splits, then perhaps you begin to platoon him a bit with a solid lefty bat. I’m not sure he’s actually a great fit for DH, but I could see him taking some reps there opposite Smith if they need to start mixing things up a bit.
Ben: I’m going to cheat on this question and say both yes AND no. Yes, because that’s the biggest platoon split he’s had since 2022 (when he bizarrely had a reverse split against lefties (.675 against and .760 against righties). Also, if his range and arm continue to decline, they might start to rotate him into the DH role rather than running him into left every day. However, I’m reluctant to move him into a total platoon role since even in that big split, he was still able to put up numbers that were close to league average (sOPS+ of 95).
Who’s the backup plan?
DBacksEurope: Corbin in left and either Jake or Thomas in center. But I think that bat will have to crater and his defence to become unplayable to get that to happen.
Wesley: I’d imagine that Hazen just goes out and acquires someone via trade if that proves necessary.
1AZfan1: I think the outfield is pretty well set to weather one injury (or two for a short period). If Lourdes goes down, Grichuk is about as equal a fill-in there could be, and behind him you could backfill with Pavin or Jake and still have Garret Hampson and Jorge Barrosa kicking around in Reno. I won’t discuss a doomsday scenario in which Gurriel becomes unplayable because I really don’t think that will happen.
Makakilo: If Gurriel Jr. is injured, perhaps Grichuk could play left field until Gurriel Jr. returns.
James: As others have already pointed out, Grichuk is a logical one-for-one substitution. Beyond that, the team will also have at least one of Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, and Jake McCarthy they can choose from as well. If the team suffers a second long-term injury in addition to Gurriel, then the club will have to get creative with Smith and potentially some minor leaguers.
Ben: The easiest answer is Grichuk for sure, but I suspect they might also be looking at some of the outfield prospects including Jorge Barrosa, AJ Vukovich, and maybe even Tristin English if they want to test out his utility across multiple positions. Honestly, the outfield depth of this team is pretty impressive and goes toe-to-toe with the pitching on the roster.
What are you watching in spring training this year?
Spencer: Soccer. And Hockey. I’ll read about baseball. But spring training really isn’t much fun to watch unless you live in a city with a park. And much like Jim, the 2025 season holds less appeal for me with the division out of play already. I’ll watch games, but I won’t be staying up past my ridiculously early bedtime to watch half a game very often.
Justin: Same as Spencer, but just hockey.
DBacksEurope: I don’t have my MLB.tv subscription anymore. Spring Training games are played at very friendly European times so I would watch quite some (the first few innings). Now, I don’t know what I will watch instead. Probably save myself just some time to do stuff, I suppose.
Wesley: I’ll probably watch some Cactus League games once I’m back in Arizona
1AZfan1: The pitching. Really want to see how Monty looks after a normal offseason. Seeing how Ryne is looking is also a big storyline I’ll be following because if Monty looks like he did last year, Ryne would have the most to gain. I also want to see how the bullpen looks beyond the major contributors. How does Seth Martinez and Drey look? A couple of the NRIs are intriguing as well, like Amendt and Backhus. I believe this team will go as far as the pitching takes them, hopefully we can get a sense early on that this will be the best staff of the Hazen/Lovullo era.
Makakilo: A few thoughts quickly came to my mind.
Pitching: Are any relievers showing an increase in fastball velocity? Did any pitcher add a new pitch? Do I see signs that Seth Martinez will pitch better for the Diamondbacks than his previous team? Are there signs of improvement by Rodriguez or Montgomery? Will Gallen’s 4-seam fastball improve to the 2023 level (when it was great)?
Batting: Will Alek Thomas’ team-best squared up percentage finally translate to great batting? Will Eduardo Suarez’s excellent late-season batting carry forward to this season? One key to last season’s league-high runs scored was their increased baserunners – does spring training show signs that their increased baserunners will continue (such as high OBPs, high hard-hit percentages,…). Although I’m assuming Corbin Carroll’s batting will certainly bounce back to 2023 levels, it would be great to see positive signs in spring training.
Bench Positions: In spring training, do the following players show they are ready to play on the bench (as utility infielder) either to start the season or at some point during the season (or next season for Gino Groover who I think will be a star)?
On 40-man roster
- Blaze Alexander
- Grae Kessinger
- Jordan Lawlar
NRIs
- Garrett Hampson
- Connor Kaiser
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Gino Groover
James: I’m watching Manchester United flirt with posting their worst season ever. I guess it is good practice for being a fan of Arizona sports teams.
Ben: I’ll probably catch parts of some Spring Training games here and there, but I’ll probably be focused on college basketball and hockey until we get closer to Opening Day. Honestly, it gets confusing trying to keep track of all the different substitutions if you happen to actually watch a game. It’s just as useful to look at the box score after the fact.
What is THE word you can never spell correctly?
DBacksEurope: Cincinnatti. Cincinatti. Cincinati. Cincinnati. This is probably the last time I wasn’t able to get it right the first time.
Spencer: DBE, take it from an Ohioan. Cinci and Northern Kentucky are your friends. lol
Wesley:
[Jim: I’m going to presume the above is some kind of meta answer!]
Justin: For a long time, “cinnamon,” not so much now. Kind of weird. Nothing comes to mind for current stuff.
Makakilo: Instead of hopeless I often type hopeful.
James: I’m currently drawing a blank. Mostly, my spelling errors tend to revolve around proper names.
Ben: I’m embarrassed to say that embarrass is the word I misspell most frequently. My brain just does not comprehend why there’s a second “r” when there could just as easily be one.