Is it a case of Marte or bust for the D-backs in 2025?
What impressed you about Ketel Marte last year?
James: Probably the uptick in his defense and the fact that he managed to play 136 games. After he started bulking up, he became more injury prone and he also lost defensive range. Before the ill-fated attempts to turn him into an outfielder or utility player, Marte’s defense was pretty solid. But then, as bulkiness, injuries, and lack of familiarity came together, Marte’s defense became very pedestrian, almost even a minor liability. He got to work. He put his head down, slimmed down a bit, and actually looked strong defensively again in 2024.
Ben: Can I say everything? I know that sounds like a copout, but Ketel looked like a different player last year. He was more mentally locked in, he was more mature in his approach to the game, he was more patient at the plate (66th percentile for Chase%), made more authoritative contact with the ball (96th percentile for HardHit%), and looked like the kind of star and leader the team clearly needed last year. It’s not much of an exaggeration to say that the D-Backs wouldn’t have even been sniffing the playoffs if it weren’t for Ketel playing at that high a level. I’ll go a step further and note that it’s extremely rare for a player to improve their game to this extent as they cross the 30-year old mark. If he were to maintain that quality of play for another five years or so, which is extremely unlikely, he could very well put himself into a conversation for the Hall of Fame. For the time being, let’s enjoy watching one of the best second baseman in the game.
Spencer: The defense definitely. It was impressive as was the noticeable change in his maturity without losing that youthful excitement. He’s already a D’Back great that will be remembered for decades as a favorite.
DBacksEurope: I will not mention his defence, because he looked fine at 2B until the Diamondbacks thought it was a great idea to move him to center. He had looked as a good and solid 2B until then and with the move to the outfield and subsequent return came an unhappy face, meagre hitting, questionable defence and injuries. The Marte we see now is the Marte we should have seen the previous seasons as well. 2023 was a good year for him and 2024 was even better. When compared to last year he hit the ball harder, so I will stick to that: the power.
ISH95: I’m going to go a different route and say the determination he brought to this season. I never personally saw evidence that he wasn’t trying in any given season, but it felt like he brought a special intensity to this year. Along the lines of “I realized I enjoy Playoff Baseball and I’m going to personally drag this team back kicking and screaming.” That translated to both his offense and his defense and was impressive to watch.
Makakilo: Last season, his 6.8 bWAR was on pace to reach the 7-year peak average of 20 Hall-of-Fame second base players (44.5 bWAR). At second base, Ketel Marte was the sixth best defensively (8 OAA), while walking away with best batting (.401 wOBA, 31 Homers, and 53.7% Hard-Hits) and best impact on winning (3.26 WPA per FG).
Preston: I’m in agreement with pretty much everyone; his defense and durability. I thought of him as glove-first when we acquired him, but definitely thought of him as mostly a contributor with the bat after last season. Now, he looks like a well-rounded player who should be a star.
Justin: I agree with everyone and love Blake’s take.
Will he be the best 2B in the majors?
James: I think he has a very good shot at it if he can continue to stay healthy. He’ll be given a run by veteran Jose Altuve and up-and-comer, Brice Turang. In order to stay in the running, Marte will need to avoid the leg and back problems of the past and stay as a solidly above average defender, all while repeating last year’s results at the plate.
Ben: There’s a strong argument to be made that he was the best second baseman in the league last year. His next closest competitor (among qualified players) was Brice Turang, but there was a sizable gap between them. And that’s including Marte missing nearly three weeks due to an ankle injury. Without that and the associated recovery time, he may have even further extended his lead over Turang.
Spencer: So long as Garrett Stubbs or some random nobody leaves him alone, I don’t see why not. Even if he’s as low as fifth I’ll take it.
DBacksEurope: If he repeats his previous season, then obviously he will although I think Mookie Betts is probably the best second baseman in the entire league (but now no longer qualifies). When compared to the 2023 ranking (Jim provided the 2023 rankings in his article between brackets), it is pretty clear how opportunistic these rankings are. For us, Diamondbacks fans, I am sure that in 2024 he will still be the best second baseman. Maybe someone like Jazz will have a monster year in New York and become the new best second baseman in MLB’s ranking. Does it matter? Not really. Ketel is one of the best and will be in the conversation each season.
ISH95: I’m with DBE and Spencer on this one, he is the best barring low level players running out of talent on the basepaths, but even then, I’m happy with him being in the conversation.
Makakilo: This article lists last season’s top-10 second basemen in MLB. This season, Ketel Marte will likely again rank first. Altuve (two on their list) had a negative 9 OAA defense (and may move from second base to left field), and Semien (three on their list) had a negative 1.49 WPA and batted significantly worse than Marte.
My view of last season’s top second basemen gave me two insights.
- James was correct that Brice Turang (Brewers) is an up-and-comer. For last season, I ranked him eighth best.
- Rookie Otto Lopez (Marlins) is another up-and comer who I ranked second best! Last season he was a rookie in his age 25 season (he played 9 games before last season). His defense at second base was 17 OAA! His impact (0.3 WPA) was the third highest in my list of top second basemen. He batted better when playing second base (.320 OBP and .313 wOBA). Among the top second basemen on my list, Otto Lopez’s wOBA while playing second base ranked second highest. A caveat is that his .313 wOBA when playing second base was barely above .309 which marks the 33rd percentile (for all batters) per Michael Bauman’s article.
For last season, the following table shows my top ranked second basemen (Data from Baseball Savant and FanGraphs). Note that batting wOBA was only for PAs while playing second base.
1AZfan1: I don’t have much unique to contribute to this week’s questions, everyone nailing any answers I would have had, but the references to Brice Turang got me thinking on something that tends to bother me. Turang won the Platinum Glove for the NL this year, and he is indeed a very good defender, but I have an issue with awarding the “Best Defensive Player” to someone who plays a low-value defensive position. All three of this year’s NL 2B nominees for the Gold Glove are guys who were moved off of shortstop. Turang only has a small professional sample at SS, but it’s not good. Nico Hoerner, last year’s Gold Glover at the keystone, was a pretty good defensive shortstop, but he got moved off of short for a better one and, lo and behold, Hoerner was the best defensive 2B in baseball last year. I guess it’s not desirable to be exclusionary and say “such and such position should never win a certain award”, but I’d say just about any above average SS (Perdomo for instance), could move to second base and be a Gold Glove contender.
Preston: I think Mak is absolutely spot-on with Lopez as being a potential up-and-comer. I do think Marte has the best chance to be the best, but if I had to choose between Marte and the field I’d pick the field. It’s just too hard to be the best every year. I’m comfortable saying that, given health, he’ll be top-five, but I think it’s hard to say he’ll be better than that. That’s still really good.
Can he reproduce his MVP caliber campaign this year?
James: If not, the Diamondbacks are in trouble as a team. They already lost the production of Randal Grichuk, Christian Walker, and Joc Pederson. Naylor, if all goes well, might replace one of them – at least at the plate. Naylor is going to have to have a big year offensively to make up for his lack of glove. But, if he continues to flirt with hitting .300, with modest pop and an above average glove, he’ll be in the conversation.
Ben: He certainly has the capability. None of the expected stats show that it was aberrant. It was certainly his best overall season to date, but it’s not as if it came out of nowhere either.
Spencer: I think he can. I don’t necessarily believe he will. And that’s ok. Gabi, Corbin, and maybe Alek or Lawlar or ADC are likely to continue developing positively which could help cover some natural regression. I wouldn’t sleep on a contract season Naylor either.
DBacksEurope: Yes. The power he showed in 2024 is probably here to stay. He has always had good batting averages, so I am sure he can reproduce his 2024.
Makakilo: Yes. He can and he likely will.
Preston: Marte has always hit the ball hard, which certainly helps matters. He’s increased his walk rate in four consecutive seasons. But last season was the first year when he hit the ball hard routinely. In 2016, for example, his maximum exit velocity was in the 92nd percentile but his average was in the sixth percentile. Last year was a sea of red on his Baseball Savant page. Can he repeat that consistency of contact in 2025? If so, and if he’s healthy, he’s a candidate to get MVP votes (although no one is going to approach the big names.)
Justin: I think so. To ISHs point earlier, the team missed the playoffs by a game. Marte missed a month and at the time was seriously in the conversation for MVP. Take it personally and run with it…
Do you have any concerns regarding Marte in 2025?
James: My biggest concerns are health and durability (which contributes to health). He showed in 2024 the sort of elite player he can be when he can avoid picking up knocks.
Ben: Like anyone else, his ability to stay on the field will be the key factor. He’s been pretty durable for the majority of his career with just six IL stints, but fluke accidents happen to players every season.
Spencer: Mostly just his own health and any potential dirty tactics from teams scared of the Diamondbacks.
DBacksEurope: As long as Ketel is happy and playing with a smile on his face, I am not concerned at all. I understand that the Diamondbacks will not move him around or use him more as a DH, that would be my biggest concern. Keep Ketel where he is happy.
Makakilo: Two reasons to think his batting is sustainable are his career high 53.3% hard hits and his career high 25.7% home-runs-per-fly-ball.
Perhaps his increase in ground-balls-to-fly-balls (1.24 to 1.39) could be a concern. His 9.5% average launch angle was lower than each season from 2019 through 2023. My cat jumped on the keyboard, telling me my concern was minor, especially because his 12.3% barrels was a career high.
Preston: Health, as with so many others. As we saw last year, even a short absence can spell doom for the season. With such a tiny margin of error, it only takes a week off to ruin everything.
Justin: Health. I like Preston’s answer. I had not read it when I wrote my answer a couple questions up…
Who’s our back-up plan?
James: I guess it would depend on just how long the team would be without Marte. There really isn’t a clear-cut back-up plan for an extended absence. However, the logical choices would be Grae Kessinger and Geraldo Perdomo, with Lawlar then sliding in at short.
Ben: There are people on the depth chart behind him, but there isn’t anyone at the moment who has the capability of filling Marte’s shoes. It’s possible Jordan Lawlar becomes that at some point if he were to fulfill his potential, but he has to stay healthy and stick at the major league level first.
Spencer: Lawlar/Perdomo I assume? Kessinger I suppose too. And in a true catastrophe we probably have to sit through another Blaze stint… but I do wonder if some veterans signed for AAA surpass Blaze throughout the season as well.
DBacksEurope: There is no backup plan for Ketel Marte. There will be other players that can play his position but the combination of his defence and offence at that position is irreplaceable.
Makakilo: In case of an injury to Marte, the 40-man roster has three Diamondbacks who could step in: Tim Tawa, Blaze Alexander, and Grae Kessinger. Combining experience in Majors and minors, Tim Tawa has the most innings at second base (1413 innings) followed by Blaze Alexander (724 innings) and Grae Kessinger (586 innings). All three have options left, so that the team could give each player a chance (one at a time). The first player who succeeds at second base would stay in the position until Marte returns. And Grae Kessinger could be promoted to the bench because in his last two seasons in the Majors, he played all the infield positions except catcher. For details see this AZ Snake Pit article.
Preston: Connor Kaiser is another depth piece that hasn’t been mentioned, but either Lawlar or Tawa has the highest ceiling (depending on whether Lawlar winds up at third or short) and we need health up and down the system.
Justin: DBE’s answer 100%
Does baseball need a salary cap and floor?
James: There are a couple of rules that create some virtual floors in the game. THe revenue sharing rules and league minimum salaries currently dictate the floor. With the way minor league baseball is set up and the importance of the farm systems to the health of the game, I don’t see much of a way forward for a more aggressive, elevated floor.
As for a salary cap, I would support a cap with more force to it. The NBA is by no means a great model, but I think even that model would work better than what MLB currently has. For one thing, it creates a cap based upon the health of the entire league, not just the financial health of isolated ownership groups. The various “penalty aprons” are not unlike what MLB currently has with its soft cap, but the NBA’s aprons are designed to have better teeth. Among changes I would love to see, changes that would help both players and “league parity”, would be eliminating the qualifying offer nonsense and bringing back A and B tier free agents. If the big money teams want to poach all the good players, they’ll forever be paying more and more, as they will lose multiple draft picks for signing away premium talent from other teams.
MLB also needs to force the issue with the players and the MLBPA to institute an international draft – sooner, rather than later. If lower revenue, smaller market teams have increased access to the best and brightest young, inexpensive talents, that will go a long way towards theoretically leveling the field. The Dodgers are one of the best run organizations in all of sports. They draft well and spend their money wisely (for the most part). But, if The Dodgers suddenly didn’t have an endless pipeline of international stars lined up to join them and they forfeit all of their picks in the first four rounds every season, the well of young prospects to trade for impact talent mid-season will dry up, as will the well of injury replacement players. The Dodgers would then be forced to spend big for every player they acquire, instead of taking a more balanced approach like Arizona or Tampa Bay.
It’s a complicated issue and there are no easy fixes. But the health of the game is very much at stake.
Ben: I like the idea of a salary floor to make sure that teams are maintaining a certain minimum threshold for competitiveness, but artificial policies like that are deeply unpopular with the owners on the floor side and with the players on the cap side. I think there is an unfortunate reality that there is inherent inequity in baseball. No amount of money will convince a player to sign with one team when another might have other, built-in advantages. While I take his word with a heavy grain of salt, the Cubs owner recently stated that they tendered a similar offer to Tanner Scott as what he eventually signed for with the Dodgers. The same is true for Corbin Burnes – he likely could have made even more money with another team like the Mets or Yankees, but reached out and ultimately signed with the D-Backs because of inherent advantages the team has. Any and all of these policies are simply designed to combat that inequality however possible.
There need to be changes made, I don’t disagree. I’m just not convinced that a floor or cap would necessarily be the deciding factor in further leveling the playing field of baseball.
Spencer: I honestly don’t know. Do I want one? Yes I think I do. But I think it should be high and have luxury tax style penalties leading up to it. For example, I would support a $120M floor and a $400M cap. But starting at $300M, a team incurs heavy penalties that compound on each other.
- $300M+: 110% tax on every dollar which is put into a fund to pay bonuses to pre-arb players and/or MiLB players NOT “small market” owners
- $325M+: 10% reduction in draft bonus pool
- $350M+: Loss of 5 draft picks, randomly selected the day before the draft (bonus pool will be adjusted – if a first 10 round pick is lost, the team will get 10% of the value lost available for use)
- $375M+: 250% tax on every dollar with the same distribution rules as the $300M level, no international bonus pool for 2 years (or loss of draft picks in an international draft same as the $350M level)
- $400M+: Forfeit 162 games the following season, no draft selections and players all receive an opt-out where all 40-man rostered players can choose to sign with another team while still receiving 25% of their salary from the penalized team. They are true free agents and can choose to sign multi-year deals if desired or they can choose to accept their full salary and sit out the season. (This may require levels of free agency so teams can return a season later and still be competitive; something like pre-arb and arb players can only sign 1 year deals but get to reach free agency a season earlier)
I would put the same penalties in place for coming under the salary floor, but at $10M increments instead of $25M. And one added stipulation that an ownership group penalized at the highest level 3 times in any 10 year period be forced to sell the team unless extenuating circumstances are relevant and agreed upon by other owners and the MLBPA.
But more realistically than my salary floor/cap suggestion, I would rather see two changes that might help:
- Institute an international draft or expand the current July draft to include international prospects in the eligibility pool. Age rules the same as they are currently for domestic players (this may require some up front cost to help players expecting to get paid at 16 bridge the gap to eligibility)
- Eliminate the loop hole in calculation of contracts that uses the Net Present Value formula for luxury tax/salary cap purposes. It’s complicated and helps no one but teams looking to shirk the intent of the tax.
- I would not get rid of deferred money. That’s a normal thing that should continue. In my (rather low salaried) job, I defer parts of my pay to be paid out upon retirement. This suggestion would only change the way teams get taxed on the contracts they agree to.
- Another option in lieu of negating the NPV shenanigans would be to use the actual dollar amount paid each year as a luxury tax/salary cap hit in the year it’s paid. This would mean Ohtani only costs the Dodgers $2M from 2024-2033 but he costs them $68M each year from 2034-2043. I am not an accountant nor a lawyer, so just level the tax for whatever the actual amount of money being given as compensation for work is. This would ensure teams don’t get to wiggle out of repercussions by getting funny with the money.
DBacksEurope: Maybe I am one of few but I don’t think that MLB needs a floor nor cap.
The Athletics show why you don’t need a floor: to get to the floor, players will get an overpay and that does not benefit the game itself.
Players love to play for the Dodgers just like Corbin Burnes wanted to play in Arizona. Those are competitive advantages you are not going to take away with a cap. Besides, a cap will only benefit the owners and will not benefit the players. That Ohtani is the best player in the world and accepts to be paid arbitration salaries short term is something unique. Sasaki was always planning to join the Dodgers and maybe this was his only way to achieve it. Both players were prepared to lose money short term. I think we will not ever witness that again and you shouldn’t react to anomalies.
And are the Dodgers to blame for other teams and owners not willing to pay Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, …?
A sports dynasty is achieved through a combination of smartness, good luck and opportunity; the Dodgers have done the right things at the right moment.
However, I think if more teams in the MLB used Mike Hazen’s “winning culture” to heart, more teams would be more competitive and would not make other teams (i.e. the Dodgers) better. Apart from the tanking Astros, what tanking team has become successful in terms of reaching the World Series? I think the tanking cultures are the real problem in MLB. We are upset by the Dodgers, but I am sure that the Athletics, Angels, White Sox, Marlins, Nationals, Reds, Cardinals, Pirates and Rockies are not and that is about a third of the league.
Makakilo: Something interesting, but mostly opaque, may be happening.
Inspiration: A thought attributed to Tony LaRussa (from this web page) said the way teams value players changed from prior year performance to ‘individual performance in place of winning games for the team.’
First thought: Might a salary cap impact how teams value players? My view is player salaries are highly dependent on how teams value players (with rare impacts by bidding wars and team friendly contracts). Player value may depend on player metrics, team specific needs, player fit with team culture, and team ability to support high performance by each player. A hypothetical salary cap could encourage a team to make choices on which aspects of player value to ignore, so they can focus on other aspects. That could inadvertently make teams worse.
Second thought: In free agent contracts, teams often get less value for their salary dollars. Free agent contracts pay near market value, which is much more expensive than pre-arbitration and arbitration contracts. In addition, free agent contracts seem to pay for past performance instead of future performance. The biggest impact of salary caps would be to limit free agent contracts by the wealthiest teams. Perhaps salary caps would prevent them from wasting resources, making them stronger in the long run.
Third thought: What about teams that go all in when their contention window opens? Would a salary cap prevent that type of strategy (which I view as an acceptable strategy)?
Fourth thought: There are three obvious ways around a salary cap.
- Give players guaranteed contracts that extend into their old age, when they likely will not be playing baseball.
- Give players a mutual option year (almost never exercised, this MLBTR article said 3 of 45 were exercised) with a buyout. “Even better, these buyouts generally do not count against this year’s payroll.” – Mike Axisa, MLBTR
- Deferred salary (when only the present value applies against this year’s payroll).
Preston: Does baseball need a salary cap or floor? In my opinion, society in general needs a “salary cap” and soon, or…
Justin: The salary floor thing is interesting to me, at least. The Coyotes would trade for guys still under contract but with no likelihood of ever playing again (Chris Pronger, Pavel Datsyuk, etc) or bad contracts (Andrew Ladd) in exchange for draft picks. It would be similar to something like the Bronson Arroyo trade, but instead of trading a prospect like the Dbacks did, it would be a 1st rounder coming back. That is how they ended up drafting Dylan Guenther, just off the top of my head. The caveat is that MLB would need to trade draft picks and probably a ceiling. I know I didn’t really answer the question…