Six games left, and all to play for!
Looking good right now. Any concerns for the final week?
Dano: Well, of course, because it’s likely gonna be a close-quarters knife fight, especially that last series versus the Padres. Mainly, it’s the starting pitching I’m worried about. I feel good with Kelly on the mound, and pretty good with Pfaadt, especially after his outing on Thursday. But the rest? Yeah, not so much. Deep breaths.
Makakilo: Two concerns:
1. The Diamondbacks need to avoid injuries, so that they are at their best in the playoffs.
2. The better path forward is for the Diamondbacks to win the series against the underdog Giants, who are in the role of spoiler. Through Saturday, they won 4 of their last 5 games. In that series the they will have four batters who hit well at Chase this season:
- Ramos, 1.983 OPS
- Fitzgerald, 1.100 OPS
- Chapman, .967 OPS
- Yastrzemski, .865 OPS
Jeffern51: My biggest concern this late in the season is always injury. There are a couple of areas on this team where the depth is thinner that an injury could severely hamper this team’s ability to move forward.
1AZfan1: Health mentioned a couple times already, and I share that as my top concern, which speaks to how confident I think we’ve become that the D-backs really will punch their ticket to the postseason this week. Last week at this time? Not so confident.
Preston: No concerns except for injury, and the reality of that has hit home in the last couple of minutes, as Gabi apparently has re-aggravated his adductor injury. I suspect we’ll not see him the rest of the regular season and we’ll see him try to give it a go in the postseason.
DBacksEurope: Yeah, the Giants won’t roll over, the Padres are hot and the Diamondbacks fail when you expect them to perform (and the other way around). The bullpen is still a mess.
Justin: I am writing this after the above 5 people, I was at work and so I don’t know how bad Moreno got hurt today, but I would definitely say Gabby being injured.
Later….
An hour or so after I wrote my comment, Jack posted an article on SI. There was an interesting quote I would like to post “After the game Torey Lovullo, speaking to reporters, said that Moreno is day to day and will have an MRI Monday morning back in Phoenix. Lovullo down played the seriousness of the re-injury, saying Moreno might have just been breaking up some scar tissue and was hopeful he would be available off the bench Monday night.”
Ben: Having attended today’s masterclass in choking from our pitching staff, I have to pick on them. The team is in the position it is despite their pitching not because of them. At the moment, they have the second-worst BAA and SLGA (.262 and .432 respectively) in the entire major league. The only team that’s worse are the Rockies. Their 4.59 ERA entering play today ranks them fourth-worst in the majors – ahead of just the White Sox, Marlins, and aforementioned Rockies. Yes, there have been injuries, but that’s true of every team around the league and isn’t a suitable excuse at this point in the season. I’m certainly reacting out of emotion from today’s gut-punch of a loss, but I have functionally no confidence in this pitching staff at the moment.
If they reach the post-season, who should close games for Arizona?
Dano: I think it’s gotta be Puk. He’s the one I trust the most out of our bullpen, by far, at this point. And he’s no stranger to high-leverage situations. Martinez is getting there, but I don’t feel like he’s there yet.
Makakilo: If it was game seven of the World Series, my choice would be Puk. However, Martinez is a right-handed pitcher and Puk is a left-handed pitcher. Their season splits show that for many right-handed batters, Martinez would be the better choice. The caveat is that pinch hitting can change the matchups.
Comparing performance, the following table looked at Got-The-Job-Done (GTJD) (no ERs and no inherited runners score), Win Probability Added (WPA), and team wins, as well as their splits (as mentioned in my previous paragraph). Data from Baseball Reference.
Jeffern51: Makikilo just convinced me with this graph to go with Puk, but honestly I think this team may be better with 2 closers. Some things to consider: Do you believe the Mantiply we saw last night was real? If so I think this team is more willing to allow Mantiply to face the tough lefties in high leverage situations outside the 9th inning which would allow them to save Puk for the 9th. Thats my only hesitation to reserve him for the 9th is what if you are playing the Dodgers in the playoffs and you have Ohtani and Freeman coming up with runners in scoring position in the 8th? Personally I think im still going to Puk there and then giving the 9th to Martinez. Honestly this team may be better with 2 closers for that reason. If this team is going to make a run, some of the scariest hitters are lefties. Harper, Schwarber, Jackson Merill, to go with Ohtani and Freeman. I think I want Puk facing them in the 8th or the 9th more than I want 1 closer.
1AZfan1: I’m very closely aligned with Jeffern51’s opinion here. I trust Puk the most, but I’d also rather have him face the top-end lefties in the 8th if that’s how it lines up and give JMart the ball in the 9th. In the 7th inning or earlier, I’m comfortable saving Puk and sending out Mantiply for the lefty matchups. If there are no lefties of note to worry about (highly unlikely in the playoffs, but still), I’d roll JMart in the fireman role (eg. need a strikeout to get out of an inning) and use Puk in the 9th.
Spencer: I don’t think this team can afford a true closer. Puk is the closest we have but he’s best suited to protecting a lead in any inning. JMart is fine but wobbles still (understandably), so I am unprepared to ride or die with him. Everyone else is…um…suspect at any given outing. I just want the team to be in a position to protect leads late in games. Unlike many, I trust Torey to know who is best suited for a situation.
Preston: A.J. Puk needs to be used in the Andrew Miller role from 2016, but not overused as Miller was. The third time through the order penalty also applies to relievers making three outings in a series, no matter how great they are. Martinez is my pick of the current bullpen arms, but keep a seat open for Ryne Nelson. Yes, it would be nice to have him in the rotation, but having him closing out games is a good option if the front office is uncomfortable with his health holding up in the rotation.
DBacksEurope: The Diamondbacks not having a closer is one of the biggest failures that have occurred during the season. Sewald was supposed to be that stability in the back-end and now we don’t have it. I don’t really trust any reliever in the closing role. We’d rather blow our opponents away, that’s the best tactic.
Justin: I like Pretson and Spencer’s answers.
Ben: I’m not convinced at this point that having a designated closer is as important as having a pitcher who can consistently perform in high leverage situations regardless of handedness splits. This team doesn’t have that at the moment, but Puk has my trust and seemingly Torey’s trust as well.
Luis Guillorme was DFA’d. What do you remember of his time here?
Dano: Mainly it’s all the great defensive plays, the flying-squirrel leaps to snag balls, or knock down balls, that would have easily gotten past a lesser defender.
Makakilo: Three things to remember:
1. His excellent defensive plays:
“Recently as Diamondback, he made this gem of a play – a superman leap to stop the grounder, rolling onto his back to throw out the runner at first. Amazing!” – Makakilo in this AZ Snake Pit article.
2. He led D-backs in walks per plate appearance (22.4%).
3. Through 21 September,he led D-backs in stolen bases per (hits + walks + hit by pitches).
- Guillorme: 17.6%
- Carroll: 15.3%
- McCarthy: 14.0%
1AZfan1: It was love at first sight for me. Guillorme’s body type was closer to Bartolo Colon than a lot of the high-end athletes we see in baseball, but he was still extremely athletic (as his defensive highlights showcase). Then when you add in that 80-grade beard and batting without gloves? He just seems like a Dude. I’ll definitely remember his already mentioned Superman grab in Boston, but his whole vibe made him an instant favorite for me.
Spencer: The defense. I don’t have a single memory of an at bat. But his defense was a thing of beauty.
Preston: He seems likely to be the guy I remember when looking at old lineups and thinking, “yeah, he was here. Forgot about that.” He was a useful role player and will deserve whatever playoff share he gets voted, but even though he had some incredible defensive plays, they weren’t of the type that will get replayed on highlight reels. They were just really good.
DBacksEurope: In all honesty, nothing. In a few years time no one will remember not even one play he made in a Diamondbacks uniform.
Justin:
ABSOLUTELY FROM LUIS GUILLORME!!! pic.twitter.com/eHJP7082tt
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) August 24, 2024
Ben: For me, it was all the tenacious at-bats he had on such a seemingly consistent basis. I swear, he would get into an 0-2 count and then foul off six pitches before getting a bloop single or a walk.
Ben made the case for Adrian Del Castillo. Should he be on our playoff roster?
Dano: I’m not sure how playoff rosters work in 2024, but if there’s another slot or two available, and we don’t need the spots for players with more positional flexibility, I would say yes, absolutely. It was heartwarming tonight to see Jose Herrera finally get his first career home run, but how long did it take ADC? Oh, right….he did that in his second game, and against the Phillies, no less. He’d be a great asset, I think, for his bat alone. And he also didn’t seem bad at calling a game and working with the pitching staff.
Jeffern51: I think the biggest thing for me is that as long as Gabi feels good, he should be catching every game in the postseason. There is not a scenario in my mind as long as Gabi stays healthy where Herrera should be catching games in the postseason so that all but eliminates his defensive value. Even if Gallen is pitching (notice Gabi caught Gallen’s last start). If Gabi can catch every game, I’d rather have the bat of Del Castillo then the marginally improved defense of Herrera. Especially with the clutch Del Castillo has shown.
1AZfan1: I love me some ADC, but I’ll vote for Herrera as the backup in the playoffs. As Jeffern51 mentioned, Gabi should be catching every single game in the playoffs. The only thing that derails that is if Gabi has to leave a game due to injury like what we saw happen TWICE in last year’s playoffs. I trust Jose to come in and be the steady hand on the wheel if that happens.
Makakilo: Not sure if it’s a Diamondbacks record: Adrian Del Castillo allowed stolen bases on 10 different Diamondbacks pitchers in one season.
Let’s look at my view of the impacts on runs scored and wins/losses of both his stolen bases and his caught stealing/advancing. The following table shows a negative impact, but not as large as I expected (data from Baseball Reference).
Three reasons that I would not have him on the playoff roster:
- Although the impact was less than I expected, it could be worse when playing better teams in the playoffs.
- Herrera is earning the nickname home run Herrera (his batting is not bad).
- Joc Pederson is my choice for DH (instead of Adrian Del Castillo).
Addendum: One reason to have him on the playoff roster: Gabriel Moreno got injured.
Spencer: I don’t know. His defense looked more and more suspect the longer he played. But Herrera has not given me any reason to want him either. With Gabi’s injury scare this afternoon, I have little faith in our catching situation; if he is out for any amount of time, my interest will shift to MLS and 2025 because he’s too important. Sorry if that upsets you for being too negative/real, but it’s the honest truth; no Moreno, no real future for the team as is.
Preston: Yes, but. The roster construction for the postseason is different from the regular season, enabling a deeper bench. Last year, they went with 12 pitchers and 14 position players, and in the Wild Card (and possibly in the LDS, depending on the schedule) that could even be dropped to 11 pitchers. (Two of the 12 pitchers on last year’s playoff roster barely appeared in either series.)
And that’s not even taking into account that last year’s roster featured Jace Peterson and Jordan Lawlar, both of whom were essentially pinch runners and defensive replacements.
So if there are again 14 position players, it’s perfectly legitimate to carry an extra left-handed bat. Especially when considering that Pederson will likely be hit for in the middle innings if there is a tough lefty against him, and so it will be useful to have another bench lefty.
Moreno’s health will make the determination. But here’s how I see the breakdown right now:
- Catchers: Moreno, Herrera
- Infielders: Walker, Marte, Suarez, Perdomo, Newman, Bell
- Outfielders: Carroll, McCarthy, Gurriel, Grichuk, Smith
- DH: Pederson
If Moreno’s health is not a concern, drop Herrera and pick up Del Castillo.
DBacksEurope: I wouldn’t pick Adrian del Castillo over Herrera this season as a catcher and as a DH I don’t see the added value with Pederson, Grichuk and Bell around.
Ben: I’ll defend my take by reiterating that Gabi is and should be the primary catcher in the playoffs. But if he’s limited in any way, having a backup catcher/left-handed bat off the bench could be extremely useful. Plus, I still suspect that he will have a part to play in the future iterations of the franchise and could benefit from exposure to a playoff atmosphere.
Shohei Ohtani. Discuss.
Dano: No. Best player money can buy, on the best team money can buy. I liked him and rooted for him when he played for Anaheim. After his embrace of Doyerdom, as well as his brush with gambling scandal, not so much anymore. He’s dead to me, basically.
Jeffern51: Everyone else discusses him enough for me not to have to. 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases is going to be enough to make him the first ever DH to win the MVP, and I still believe defense holds a lot of value so not sure how I feel about a DH winning the award. In addition, let’s see how he does in the postseason where the Dodgers are really going to need to be relying on him. The Dodgers do all sorts of great things during the regular season every year but then fail miserably when it matters most. This postseason Ohtani is going to have to carry this billion dollar team all by himself as Freeman and Betts have shown no ability to hit when it matters. Lets see how Ohtani does with the pressure turned up to 11 and no support from the rest of his team. Because if he can’t do that, none of this matters and the Dodgers still won’t have a championship.
1AZfan1: I love Ohtani as a ballplayer. Wish he wasn’t on the Dodgers. Now, I’d like to discuss a tangential topic: MLB should only award 1 MVP award. Now that both the NL and AL play by the same rules, I see no reason to award separate MVPs and Cy Youngs other than “that’s the way we’ve always done it”. In this hypothetical universe of only one MVP, who is getting the vote? Shohei and the first 50/50 season? Judge who plays defense and is a better hitter (per wOBA) than Shohei? Bobby Witt who is the leader of the overachieving Royals and plays Gold Glove caliber defense at SS? Fascinating discussion. None of the other major sports award MVPs within the conferences; now that we’ve destroyed the soul of baseball (only partial sarcasm) and implemented the universal DH, make the MVP all-MLB.
Makakilo: He was the first player to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in one season. On the other hand, as DH he is one-sided (he did not play defense). Maybe next season, he can reach true greatness.
Spencer: He is without a doubt the best player to ever touch a baseball. My only gripe is how MLB as an organization has sold out to highlight him and only him in a season where Judge and Witt are historic. Skenes has been the best pitcher in baseball and the only true ace in either league since his debut. Elly De La Cruz (so sue me I enjoy good players doing good things) is setting records. Jose Ramirez is on the cusp of history. But no. Every post, every photo, every highlighted article, is all Ohtani.
Preston: There are no words that can adequately describe what he does. I am on record as hating the DH, and stolen bases are easier than in the past, but the most stolen bases of anyone to hit 50 home runs, prior to this season, was 24. I’d like to see what he could do playing defense, but does anyone think he wouldn’t be at least an average defender?
DBacksEurope: Wow, I feel a lot of Ohtani-hate here. What he is doing is remarkable, no matter if he is a DH or not, as a matter of fact: he is doing all this while rehabbing from TJ surgery.
Justin: He is like if you created a player and maxed out all the attributes.
Ben: I’m with Europe on this one. He’s an incredible player that is doing meaningful work in globalizing the sport. It’s annoying he doesn’t play for my team, but that shouldn’t take away from that performance either.
What do you think baseball will look like in thirty years time?
Dano: Good lord. Well. I suspect there will be a whole lot more popularized advanced metrics, and so a whole lot more crap projected on screen when one is watching a baseball game on the teevee. I imagine we’ll also see some sort of “Moneyball 2.0” revolution emerge from that, so that all sorts of underappreciated players will become, at least for a little while, the new hot commodity. That may actually happen more than once over that timespan….thirty years is a long time. Also, trips to the ballpark will become even less affordable….by 2054, beers will be $50 apiece, hot dogs will be at least $15, condiments will carry a surcharge, and the more extreme food options will have gotten even more absurd and highly-priced. Also, Aaron Judge, cybernetically enhanced, will still be playing and still be hitting 60+ home runs per year. Because that’s what the people want.
Jeffern51: Interesting to think about. I think offense is going to continue to decline due to the technological advantages pitchers have in today’s game. Pitchers have so much data and information and ability in todays game I have no clue how anyone can hit. The only bright spot for hitters is Trajekt, but I still think the MLB is going to have a problem in the not so distant future if everyone is going to be throwing 100mph with cutters, sinkers, and splitters.
1AZfan1: There will only be one MVP and Cy Young awarded per year =]. Also, the mound will probably be lowered to give pitchers a little less of an advantage (to Jeffern51’s point). There will be LESS than 30 MLB teams. Daniel Hudson will still be pitching effectively, even after his 7th Tommy John surgery. And to Dano: Dodger Dogs already cost $15+ at Chavez Ravine *sigh*.
Spencer: It will look like whatever’s on my tv and I’ll enjoy it regardless. Life’s too short to waste time fighting against things that don’t matter.
Preston: Speed seems to run in roughly a 30-40 year cycle (1880s, 1910s, 1950s, 1980s, 2020s) so I suspect people will be complaining about the lack of stolen bases and blame it on the removal of the pitching mound. Yes, I think the pitching mound will be gone in 15-20 years. To avoid the advantage swinging too much towards the hitters, it will also be moved to about 57 feet. More tinkering will happen. Baseball always changes.
One change that I hope for is that the latest fad for artificial turf will have run its course, and we’ll be back to natural grass (except in places that really can’t do it.)
DBacksEurope: I hope they get rid of first and third base coaches so that players will once again need to keep an eye on the field themselves and make the decision to run or hold. That’d make the game much more fun. I also feel that the atmosphere will be more fun with more Latin Americans taking over the stands and fuelled by the popularity of soccer, they will start making much more noise and chants. Bat flips and all that will be around everywhere. Instead of the Manfred man, some kind of a homerun derby will take place to decide the wins, where 5-6 guys on each team each get one shot to hit the ball out of the park, just like shootouts in hockey or penalties in soccer. MLB will have a second tier of baseball league for promotion and relegation and players sign a contract when they get drafted. Once they hit the majors they need to sign a professional contract for at least one year and are free to go at the end of the season. Logically, a team could sign a player for multiple years when they hit the majors, but there is no longer an arbitration process.
Makakilo: The trend in global warming could eventually change the seventh inning stretch into the seventh inning cold-water rain shower (for indoor and outdoor stadiums).
Ben: I’ll go somewhat smaller than some of my fellow board members and predict that the league will be larger, but close to a majority of the players will come from the Global South – i.e. Latin America, Africa, and Asia. I think there will be more formal integration between some of the foreign leagues and the MLB as well.