Can a weakness become a strength in 2025?
This week’s topic: the bullpen. Why is it such an issue for Arizona? How do you think they did this year? What went right and what went wrong? Did fatigue play a problem? How will roles shake down next year? The closer’s position in 2025. Should we have one at all? If so, who? Is it worth spending money here? Who would you like to add? All this, and any other bullpen-related topics are welcome!
DBacksEurope: I believe it is such an issue because the Diamondbacks haven’t been able to develop it themselves nor have they made any significant signings on the free agency market.
If you opt to not sign any free agent relievers, then you need relief arms coming up from the system or a couple of cast-offs to perform well. Those waiver claims, most of the time, perform bad instead of good. We’ve been lucky with Joe Mantiply, although he is more useful than a strong asset, and Ryan Thompson. Most others, though, appeared as fast as they disappeared.
That leaves the farm system as the sole producer for quality relief and the problems with developing pitching in this organisation is something we are familiar with but we don’t know the reason behind it. Maybe the organisation is at a turning point and Justin Martinez is now the first of many more (probably not).
However, if you look at the way the World Series rosters were constructed of the Dodgers and Yankees (per MLBTR), then you can see that the majority or all of the relief arms were obtained via either trade or free agency.
Mike Hazen hasn’t been a player in the reliever free agency market. That is understandable because of the volatility of these arms. The past two years though, I have presented many relievers that were certainly in reach of this team. There were certainly good options but the team obviously rebuffed except for the terrible signing of Mark Melancon. The way this team sits on its budget, they are only players on the free agency market for “very aged” relievers and that is the even more risky part of it.
Despite the obvious lack of arms in the bullpen, I don’t think the Diamondbacks biggest issue has been the relief corps. We won many 1-run games and our “A-guys” aren’t the worst in the world. The biggest issue is still the rotation, get quality pitching from that and the “A-guys” should be able to take it over from there, though not 4-5 innings every night.
Makakilo: If I was GM of the Diamondbacks, I would look for affordable relief pitchers who would likely pitch at least 30 innings per season with an ERA+ above 100. That’s a low bar, but it would improve the team. The following insights would guide my choices:
- Look for pitchers aged 25 to 33. In the last four D-backs seasons, with the exception of Justin Martinez, no relief pitcher younger than 25 ever reached 30 innings with an ERA+ of at least 100. Those who reached that goal ranged in age from 25 to 33.
- Strive to have 10 relief pitchers who pitch at least 30 innings. When the D-backs made the playoffs (2023), during the regular season they had 10 relief pitchers who reached 30 innings. When they barely missed the playoffs (2024) they had 8 such pitchers. When they missed the playoffs (2021 & 2022) they had 6 or 7 such pitchers. Note that in 2021, 5 pitchers split between relief and starting, so they were not counted.
- Failed pitchers with high velocity and/or high IVD could be fixed. For relievers, it’s desirable to have fastball velocity of at least 95 MPH. Alternatively it’s good to have a fastball induced vertical drop (IVD) above the league average. This AZ Snake Pit article has a graph of reliever ERA vs fastball velocity. Also it talks about D-backs pitchers with above average IVD.
James: Bullpen issues plague almost every team in the league. Arizona is clearly no exception to that. Part of Arizona’s bullpen issue is relying on waiver claims instead of converting borderline/failed starters into relievers. A very big part of the issue is that the starters have struggled a ton, which has put extra pressure on the bullpen in the form of additional innings – many additional innings. The Diamondbacks need to get some more depth from their starters if they are going to keep the bullpen in peak condition. Mike Hazen probably needs to dip his toe back into the free agent reliever waters as well. Hopefully, if he does, it isn’t Melancon 2.0. The problem with free agent relievers is that the “good” ones tend to cost a mint and all of them are still volatile. There are two or three hitting the market this winter that are intriguing, though I am not certain Arizona has the financial muscle to chase them.
The team’s best course of action might be to make a run at one of the better free agent relievers and then turn to the farm for the rest. Start aggressively transitioning some starters, plus keeping an eye on relievers like Sims. When it comes to making trades, I would hope they only trade for an eighth or ninth inning arm with at least two seasons of control. Anything less, they are better exploring the other options.
Ideally, I’d like to see Hazen make a double move in the bullpen like Kevin Towers did to start his tenure. Find a setup arm that can close and a closer and stick them at the back of the bullpen the team already has. That, however, is easier said than done.
Ben: Fundamentally, bullpens and relief pitchers are difficult to predict. There’s extreme variability for them because they pitch so much less volume than essentially any starter and a bad month is much more difficult to erase than in the rotation. That variability in turn makes it difficult to pick out key free agents or trade targets, but Hazen and his staff have not made many bullpen acquisitions since this window of contention opened. I understand why they weren’t in on free agents like Josh Hader this past offseason, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t players that were in their price range like Shintaro Fujinami or Brent Suter.
They need to be in on some of the free agents this year. The team can’t afford another repeat performance of 2024. However, one element that was hidden amongst the noise: the instability in the rotation certainly impacted the relievers as they had to cover substantially more innings than in the past.
“What really is a ‘CLOSER’ anyway? Does a team actually need one?”
Wesley: What is baseball? What IS pitching? Does being given the title and job of closer inherently have more pressure that makes the job more of a psychological challenge than other bullpen roles? Probably.
DBacksEurope: The closer is one of the highest leverage jobs there are in baseball, with a guy who knows he needs to make sure his team wins by not allowing a run to score. Don’t walk the first hitter, don’t allow extra bases. In that situation, it is above all a mental issue, combined with performing at your best. More and more has been written about the difficulties of dealing with high pressure in baseball and the mental stress that goes with it. You can probably see it in your job as well, or the people you get into contact with: when they get into a stressful situation, everyone reacts differently. I don’t think it is an easy job to prepare for. You know when you are normally being used, but you don’t know if you need to pitch in the game and if so, you don’t know until the final innings who you might pitch against. And if you allow that first batter to reach base or the tying run is at second or third, the whole atmosphere builds the pressure up. I am sure this role isn’t for many. Do you need one? Yes. Is it easy to find one? No. That is why closer committees exist, to spread that pressure over several who don’t feel comfortable being in that position every time.
Makakilo: It’s a conundrum. Today I’m leaning against having a closer (although I may change my mind). Reasons follow:
- The Diamondbacks acquired Paul Sewald to be last season’s closer. After 1 July, his performance fell. Nine times he entered a game with the Diamondbacks ahead, no baserunners, and with leverage greater than 1. Three times he allowed zero runs and earned three saves. In the other six games he allowed a total of 10 runs, while leaving 2 runners on base.
- Instead of designating a closer, perhaps more important is consistently pitching well in high leverage games.
- Paul Sewald accounted for only 4 of the Diamondbacks’ 26 blown saves. Those 26 blown saves were the 8th most in the Majors. My view is that the Diamondbacks’ ranking in blown saves reflects poor pitching more than it reflects the need for a closer.
James: For me, a closer is simply a luxury for most teams, but not for teams with honest World Series aspirations. Arizona should be looking to find themselves a long-term solution for that role now, so when th time comes for them to make the World Series push, they already have the issue sorted. It is possible that Justin Martinez might eventually be that guy. He’ll need to make some adjustments this winter if that is going to happen. He still doesn’t have nearly the poise or command and control of his pitches needed to be a “closer”. Closers need to be high leverage arms with ice in their veins, ankle to get hitters out on both sides of the plate and who are not overmatched when facing the likes of Freeman, Betts, Tatis, Soto, etc. It particularly helps if they tend to pitch mostly clean innings as well.
While it is certainly possible to succeed without a dedicated closer, having one changes the competitive nature of the game. If the starter can be relied on to allow only 0-3 runs through six innings, and the closer can be relied upon to pitch a scoreless ninth, that seriously impedes the opportunities for the opposition to put crooked numbers on the board. Furthermore, having a reliable closer can force the opposing manager to go to their bench earlier, trying to score to avoid facing the closer while tied or behind. This becomes a benefit, as if there is a stumble by the bullpen (even the closer), the opposition’s bench will not be as stocked and ready for late or extra innings.
Ben: Do teams need a high-leverage reliever that can be called upon in clutch situations? That’s how I’d define a closer in today’s league. I’m less convinced that it needs to be a single pitcher though. I know the “closer by committee” isn’t as exciting or fashionable as a single player, but having multiple high-leverage relievers that could be brought in depending on the situation and matchups would be crucial.
Since it’s Halloween this week. With no limits on resources, who would you go in costume as?
Wesley: I’ve toyed with idea of getting a bigfoot costume (or Chewbacca, I suppose) with built in ½ foot stilts so I’m over seven feet tall. Thought of doing similar with various comic accurate costumes that would utilize my height, like a Hulkbuster Ironman costume. If money is truly no obstacle, higher a doctor to “enhance” my performance, spend a year in the gym with a personal trainer and nutritionist, and paint myself silver to be Colossus.
DBacksEurope: I don’t do costumes and never celebrate Halloween. If I’d have to choose, I’d probably pick something from the Día de los Muertos, which respects the 1st of November of what it actually is (not some kind of a horror party) and does so in a graceful, beautiful and a bit scary way.
Makakilo: I’ve seen two memorable costumes: a grim reaper on stilts and a golf cart with a dinosaur shell. With no limits, I would improve the dinosaur shell to have realistic movements and add a sound system with terrifying roars. Also, the golf cart would have radar that beeps when the golf cart might collide with people or objects and it indicates their direction (like many new cars).
Ben: If there are no limits on resources, I’ll go full nerd and say that I build my own jedi costume because that would be one of the more comfortable costumes while also being extremely recognizable to the broadest possible audience.