Two weeks left, and all very much to play for!
Where will the D-backs finish in the wild-card race, and why?
Makakilo: I predict they will secure the second or third Wild Card in the NL. My thoughts follow:
On 15 September, FanGraphs projected standings showed the Mets would reach 88 wins (the lowest of the 4 teams competing for a NL Wild Card Berth). [Update: The Mets lost on Sunday!] My view is it’s likely that 89 wins will be enough for the Diamondbacks to reach the playoffs.
The required 89 wins can be realized with 2 wins vs Giants, 2 wins vs Rockies, 1 win vs Brewers (out of 4 games that remain vs Brewers after Sunday’s D-back win), and 1 win vs Padres.
My biggest concern is pitching. In last week’s roundtable, Ryne Nelson was my highest ranked pitcher in the rotation, and now he is on the injured list. My concerns are his return, plus Pfaadt’s latest start was less than two full innings, and Merrill Kelly’s cramping incident. Also, the Diamondbacks know they have a problem with pitching effectiveness. Two quotes follow
- “We got to be better on the mound.” – Torey Lovullo, Postgame on 14 September
- “…We’re gonna have to [pitch] the ball better and we’ve been talking about that for weeks.” – Torey Lovullo, September 2024
Ben: I will solidify my prediction that they’ll nab the second wild card spot. The pitching depth is definitely getting tested right now – just when the position player side is getting healthier of course. I think they have enough experience and hot bats to hold off Atlanta/Mets, but the Padres seem determined to steal that top spot.
1AZfan1: They will finish in the playoffs, but I don’t know where. Why? No clue, I’m still floating from that ‘Gotta Have It’ win they pulled off today.
Jim: Second. I think they will hold off the Mets and Braves, who will be too busy cutting each other’s throats. If I’d to predict, they end up one game behind the Padres, despite taking two of three from them over the final series at Chase Field.
Who would you prefer to play in the first round?
Makakilo: I’d prefer to play the Mets or the Dodgers instead of the Brewers or the Braves. On Friday and Saturday, the Brewers twice beat the Diamondbacks. On Saturday the Braves beat the Dodgers 10-1.
Ben: I’ll echo the sentiment about playing against the Mets. On paper at least, it’s a better matchup for the D-Backs and as great as Lindor has been, I don’t think they have the kind of lineup depth that’s needed in the playoffs. I’m also terrified of the Brewers’ running game, especially if Moreno still isn’t 100% and can’t limit that aspect of their game. They’re currently third in the NL for stolen bases and have an 82% success rate for stolen bases. Meanwhile, I think the Braves are a much better matchup right now. They’re playing well, but they’re a one-dimensional offense (slugging) and are below-average even at that. Based on what they’ve done to this point, they are a three-true outcome team and that has landed them squarely in the middle on several offensive categories.
1AZfan1: Ideally we get the 4/5-seed and get to play whoever winds up in the 5/4-spot. I have no interest in playing any of LAD/PHI/MIL in a best-of-3 on the road. Atlanta is my least desired opponent among the wild card teams just because they have the starting pitching to completely dominate a short series, but as long as we make the playoffs, I really don’t care.
Jim: I can find reasons to want to face just about any of the teams. After this series, I think I would like to avoid Milwaukee however: my heart can’t stand it! The Mets seem to have had our number as well this year; I hope the Braves edge them out, but if my scenario above comes to pass, we’ll probably be facing the Padres. I’m fine with that.
Slade Cecconi pitched his way off the roster. What went wrong?
Makakilo: Two things went wrong.
- During the season, batters started adjusting to Cecconi so his OBP and SLG got worse.
- On 5 July, batters did well against 3 of his 10 changeups. In his next 8 games, he only pitched 6 changeups (2% of his pitches). His OBP stayed about the same while his SLG worsened.
For details see the following table (OBP and SLG are for all pitches, not just changeups).
What did Torey Lovullo say about Cecconi?
“He lost the feel for the changeup a little bit, and he was relying on fastball, slider. So I need him to go back down there and find that changeup and compete with his changeup.” – Torey Lovullo, September 2024
Ben: Makakilo may have a point about his changeup – especially given Torey’s comments, but I think a secondary goal has to be improving his fastball. Opposing batters absolutely demolished it this year to a tune of .329 BAA and .582 SLGA. In the majors, if you can’t use your fastball to set up other pitches, you have to have filthy offspeed stuff and that is not Slade’s case whatsoever. There’s definitely some bad luck involved with both of those numbers as the expected versions of both those numbers are better – .275 and .499 respectively – but still not exactly stellar either. I’m still hopeful that Slade will play an important part of this year and future rosters, but there needs to be some serious adjustments on his part.
1AZfan1: I have nothing of value to add. Great work by Mak on the changeup!
Jim: I don’t know what it is with the D-backs, but their struggles to develop pitching from their draft picks in-house continues. Cecconi is still only 25, so there is time for him to sort it out. But he just hasn’t looked the part of a first-round pick at all this year. Except for the first time through the order as a starter, where he held opponents to a .429 OPS. Based off that, moving to the bullpen is one of those things that would seem to make sense, but the results have been worse as a reliever.
Ketel Marte is 2024 team MVP. But who’s your pick as runner-up?
Makakilo: Because my preferred metric is WPA, my choice for runner-up is Joc Pederson, who has a higher WPA than Ketel Marte (second best bWAR, and less RBIs/HRs). Table follows:
Ben: Much like the league-wide versions, I think it depends on how you define the most valuable player. I tend to agree that Joc Pederson would be a worthy runner-up as he has quietly – as quiet as Joc can be at least – been one of the savvier offseason acquisitions for the team. But even if Justin Martinez hasn’t accumulated the same amount of value as the rest of the above list, in part because of the nature of being a late-inning reliever, I could make an argument that he has had an outsized impact on the team. In the same way that Paul Sewald helped solidify the bullpen last year and earlier this season, Martinez’s emergence has allowed the relief corps to step into more clearly defined roles. That’s especially been important once Sewald started to wobble in July. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Martinez started closing in July and then became the full-time closer in August while at the same time the team’s record improved substantially over that period which has catapulted them into contention.
1AZfan1: From the poll posted in this SnakeBytes shortly after Walker hit the IL, Christian Walker was voted the team’s runner-up MVP (Pfaadt was voted second, my how times change). I’ll be honest, I still think that’s true. Geno and Carroll passed Walker in fWAR, but they were both actively hurting the team for 3 months. Walker never had a wRC+ below 102 in any month and he’s added Gold Glove caliber defense as opposed to Joc (I do love Joc!) who just has to concentrate on his hitting (like a certain National League MVP candidate). Even with the IL stint, Walker is my vote for MVP.
Jim: I would give the silver medal to Eugenio Suarez. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the team’s second-half surge has coincided with Suarez, who has arguably been the MVP of the entire National League since the break. It’s amazing what a difference he has made: I’ve gone from dreading Suarez at-bats, to looking forward to them. It’s been among the most remarkable turnarounds in franchise history by a single player.
If you had the power, what changes would you make to the baseball season i.e. number of games, playoff structure?
Makakilo: I like it as it is. No changes are needed.
Ben: I think this deserves a separate article, but I’ll still argue that robo-assisted strike zones are past due and should be implemented as soon as feasible.
1AZfan1: I’m much like Mak, I don’t think changes are needed, but I would love some form of In-Season Tournaments that played games in areas that don’t normally get MLB games.
Jim: I think it depends what you’re trying to achieve. If you simply want to decide who’s genuinely the best team, then you get rid of the playoffs entirely, and just have a 180-game regular season. But that would probably mean Dodger dominance, and we should avoid that at all costs. If you’re trying to make money, you have a 120-game regular season, whose sole purpose is to establish seedings for a 30-team tournament. But that would largely devalue the regular season. [Though the Dodgers spending a billion dollars last winter did that too] I have to say, the current format has given the D-backs back-to-back meaningful September baseball, and it’s been a while. But no more than 12!
What’s the last four of your SSN? How much scoreboard watching are you doing?
Makakilo: I’m mainly focused on the Diamondbacks reaching 89 wins. Secondarily, I’m looking at the four teams competing for the NL Wild Card to see whether any of them are having a mini slump.
Ben: For better or worse, the Diamondbacks still have work to do before we can fully scoreboard watch. I’m fascinated by Ohtani’s chase for 50/50 – especially since it can’t come at the D-Backs’ expense and doesn’t directly impact their playoff chances either. Otherwise, I’m more statistics watching for some of the end-of-year awards or paying attention to my secondary teams.
1AZfan1: I have been watching the scoreboards since July. I like watching baseball and I like having a dog in the fight to actively root for/against teams even when the D-backs aren’t playing. I’ll flip on any of the wild card contender games if I have time. Like Ben, I’m following the 50/50 chase and I also find myself turning on Yankees games when Judge is due up in an inning. Gotta enjoy these last few weeks of baseball before it goes into full on football/basketball season and I start pining for pitchers and catchers to report.
Jim: It has become a daily ritual right now. Start off with following any East coast games, then gradually move across the continent. The main focus is on the D-backs, of course: they hold their destiny in their own hands. But it definitely is nice to have a well-defined rooting interest in other games. Well, except for having to cheer for the Dodgers and Bryce Harper, of course, like this weekend. If you’ll excuse me, I need to go and have a shower…