Which Eugenio Suarez will we get, and other questions…
Which Eugenio Suarez will we get in 2025?
DBacksEurope: In an ideal world we would see pre-COVID Eugenio Suarez, which means he builds on his 2024 season to reach those pre-COVID heights again. More realistic projections have him around league average, which is a reasonable projection, I guess. The man strikes out in almost a third of his plate appearances so you just hope he hits with power every now and then in 2025. His defence will be solid, but I think he will be a frustrating player in 2025. He will complement the power bats but hopefully we will not bet on relying heavily on him.
Spencer: I agree with DBE. He’ll be a league average guy. And hopefully Lawlar will make him a role/bench player as the season goes on. Possibly a trade candidate I suppose, but I’d rather have him in the locker room I think.
James: I mostly expect the same Suarez we saw in 2024. It’s been a pattern of his since his debut with the Reds. I’m not sure if the extremes will be quite as pronounced as they were in 2024, but I do expect him to go through some wild hot and cold spells. By the end of the season, I expect he’ll finish slightly above average on the whole, with some impressive, but not eye-popping power numbers to go with his 30+% strikeout rate.
Preston: It is impossible to predict. Obviously, it would be great if he spends the entire season hitting like he did in the second half. But even if he does not, there’s reason to hope that he’ll have more value than he did in the first half. Last year, he chased more and walked less than ever before. If he starts walking more frequently again, his OBP should be in the .330 range, which gives him a decent floor. Particularly if you prefer Savant or Fangraphs’ views of his defense, which like it a lot. DRS does not like it. While (like every player on the Diamondbacks, practically) his arm strength is a weakness, I tend to think he’s an above-average defender at third base.
Makakilo: Two thoughts follow:
- Eugenio Suarez batted better from 16 August through the end of the season. The quality of his contact improved as measured by the four statistics (squared up %, blasted %, barrelled BBE% and HR/PA).
- It’s unclear whether his defense is above average (OAA) or below average (DRS). The Fielding Bible website shows that his throwing was above average (perhaps accuracy and quickness of his hands made up for his lack of arm strength) while his range was below average.
Details in the following table (data from Baseball Savant and The Fielding Bible):
Ben: Obviously, we’re all hoping we get second-half Suarez rather than first-half at the plate. But at the same time, he could be one of the biggest “X factors” for the team given the contributions he can make in the dugout and on the dirt. As Makakilo showed above, he was still good but not as good on defense in 2024 compared to 2023. If he could find a balance between the two, it would go a long way towards recouping some of the loss of offense that might occur. He’s way too strikeout prone and whiffs too much to have the kind of consistency you’d prefer from a starter.
Wesley: I’m going to go with the safe and obvious answer of that he’ll be somewhere in between the two. I would LOVE if that second half was him making a breakthrough and establishing a new baseline, but I’m not going to hold my breath. League Average does seem like the most realistic thing to expect, like the others said.
How concerned are you the first-half version might show up?
DBacksEurope: I think it’s very reasonable. He has had more disappointing seasons since 2020 than great seasons. He wasn’t even that unlucky in the first half of the season last year.
Spencer: I again agree with DBE. I’m hopeful Second Half Geno shows up but realistically I expect we see some super cold streaks throughout the year.
James: I think I mostly covered this in my first answer. Mostly, I expect wild hot and cold spells. I’m not sure I would look for either spell being a half-season long. I think we may very well see another cold spell to start, but I also don’t think it will take until July for him to right the ship.
Preston: I’m not too concerned that it will show up on that level. Slow starts have happened before, but with the exception of two years out of his ten full seasons, he’s been average or better with the bat. One of those was his first full season. The other was 2021, which, when combined with 2020, gives a .199/.293/.440 slash, good for an 87 OPS+. Since then, he’s posted a 116 OPS+ while compiling 9.4 bWAR and 11.6 fWAR. He’s a solid, if unspectacular, third baseman.
Makakilo: In the last four seasons, Eugenio Suarez’s OPS was always less in the first-half than the second half. It is very possible for that pattern to continue.
My view is that he made a sustainable breakthrough in the last two months of the season. Two reasons follow:
- In the second half of 2024, his OPS of .942 was the highest in the last four seasons.
- From 16 August through the end of the season, he made solid contact with the baseball (see table in previous answer).
Ben: I would say mildly concerned – somewhere in the 6 or 6.5 range on a scale of 1-10. There’s nothing from the expected stats in 2024 to suggest he’s headed for a massive regression to his subpar mean, but he’s got a long enough track record to suggest that he’s a streaky hitter who will have both good and bad spells over the course of the season. One number to watch: his batting average against fastballs. In 2024, he posted a .290 BA/.499 SLG against them (.272 XBA/.492 XSLG), which were the best numbers he’s posted since pre-COVID in 2019. If he’s able to match those results, which is a big ask as a player ages, then he’ll probably be able to maintain some semblance of success with the lumber.
Wesley: I expect some serious hot and cold spells and the same streaky player we have come to know so far.
What is the back-up plan if it does?
DBacksEurope: Perdomo at third and give Lawlar the job at shortstop, no matter how he performs. It might screw up the final season of Gallen and Kelly here.
Spencer: Perdomo moves to third and some assortment of the lackluster middle infield depth (Blaze, Tawa, Hampson, Kessinger) until Lawlar makes himself known.
James: I guess it depends on how early in the season things go sour and how recovered and improved Lawlar is. The deeper into the season, the more likely that Perdomo and whomever the team chooses at the utility infielder take over at third with Lawlar sliding in at short. If the decision to bench/move Suarez happens before the All-Star break, then I think the team takes their lumps and runs Blaze out there until a new solution can be acquired or until Lawlar is finally ready to play short at the MLB level, whichever comes first.
Preston: At the moment, the backup plan is probably Grae Kessinger, which is uninspiring. Blaze Alexander would be option B, with Jordan Lawlar option C (moving Perdomo to third would also be an option here.) Tim Tawa is somewhere on the list, as is Connor Kaiser and Ildemaro Vargas.
While it’s tempting to say that, with the exception of Lawlar, none of these are good options, one could squint and see Blaze Alexander replacing most of Suarez’s value. He has the best arm of any fielder on the club and showed flashes at the major league level. But given his struggles in the big leagues and in Reno after being sent back down, I think Kessinger is above him on the depth chart right now. Tawa is a wild card.
Makakilo: Although bench players could play third base, perhaps the team would be better off sticking with Eugenio Suarez because of his well-established pattern of better batting in the second half of the season.
In case of injury, there are many options to temporarily play third base. Looking at top prospects: Jordan Lawlar (MLB & 40-man), and Gino Groover (AA & NRI). Looking at other NRIs to spring training: Ildemaro Vargas (MLB), Connor Kaiser (MLB), and Garrett Hampson (MLB). Other possibilities on the 40-man roster are Blaze Alexander (MLB), and Grae Kessinger (MLB).
Wesley: My preference is Lawlar at SS, move Perdomo to third. The other options aren’t particularly palatable or viable IMO.
Ben: I tend to agree with everyone above, but I might swap Lawlar and Perdomo from Wesley’s suggestion. I would wonder if slowly introducing Lawlar to major league pitching and defense at the hot corner might be easier than immediately tossing him into the fire at short.
Who’ll be at the hot corner for Arizona on Opening Day 2026?
DBacksEurope: I am sticking with Eugenio Suarez. He will be a free agent, but his profile isn’t that terrific so he won’t break the bank and definitely not at his age. In the recent past we surprised with an extension for Escobar, who was fun to a watch, and I think that if Suarez fulfills the projections and is league average, the Diamondbacks will reach an early extension with him for another year, partly to take away some pressure of finding a bat while looking for starting pitching, and we will also have someone who’ll bridge the 2026 season for Melendez or Troy or whatever prospect will battle for a starting job in 2027.
Spencer: I don’t expect Suarez is still the starting 3B in 2026. But I’m not sure who I expect it to be. I’ll say Perdomo and a small chance a 2025 prospect has earned it.
James: I expect it will be someone not yet in the organization, unless there is some sort of epic breakout by someone or Mike Haze and Co. are unable to conclude any moves to find anyone better than Blaze next winter.
Preston: I think it’ll be either Jordan Lawlar or Geraldo Perdomo. Lawlar made six starts at the position last year, and has made six more over the winter. Unless Perdomo takes a step back defensively, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lawlar moved over. Yes, Lawlar has the better arm, but as we saw last year with Alexander, arm strength isn’t everything.
Makakilo: I’ll take a chance and go with Gino Groover. FanGraphs shows him as the Diamondbacks’ fifth best prospect. In AA his OPS was 1.000. In AA at third base, his fielding percent was 1.000 (perhaps reflecting his improved defense at third base that the FanGraphs website talked about).
“It looks like Groover’s going to be capable of playing all three spots [1B, 2B, and 3B], while also crushing lefties and matching up well against righties whose stuff tends to live in his happy zone.” – FanGraphs Prospect Description
Wesley: Groover would be my guess, too, for the exact same reasons.
Ben: Just to be contrarian, I’ll say Tristin English. He’s got a .276/.349/.462 slash line in nearly 200 games with Reno and has the added benefit of flexibility on either corner, which will also be a position of need in 2026. I think the more straightforward answer is Blaze Alexander or another prospect however.
Post-Bananas question: What does baseball need to do to attract younger fans?
DBacksEurope: Make it more exciting. I know the purists won’t like it, but younger fans want to see spectacular things. Players pimping home runs, bat flipping, dancing the bases, celebrating important outs, interacting with the crowd, and pitchers screaming their lungs out when they get those important outs.
Spencer: If we’re only interested in fans, not an influx of young players, I say they should start attending math and chess clubs. Highlight the analysis that goes into understanding the modern game. For players, I agree with DBE. Let the players have fun. It’s never going to be a super physical sport even in the way soccer is, so lean into the individual heroics and accomplishments.
James: DBE has the jist of it. Let the players embrace the fun. I know MLB tends to be pretty reserved. But the atmosphere in the winter leagues in Latin America is electric and exciting, even in snoozer games. Bring that atmosphere to MLB. I’m not sure they need to bring the cheerleaders as well, but I would not be opposed, though I suspect there are many who would be. It would also be nice if they would stop mucking about with the rules to artificially inflate on-field feats. I’m all for celebrating Ohtani and his storied run to found the 50/50 club. But, with larger bases and the change to being able to hold runners on, the achievement is not the same as it used to be. Mostly – just let the players and fans embrace the emotions of the game to increase the expression of fun. Make the game a fun one again, instead of a clinical one, where everyone on the field has the body expression and demeanour of someone going to work at an accounting office.
Preston: The only thing that would really solve the problem is an increase in participation, and a positive fan experience for kids at the game. Ubiquitous travel ball and the destruction of the minor leagues are both major hurdles to that. The fact of the matter is, baseball (and other sports too, eventually) have opted to maximize making money in the present and damn the future. There’s practically no day baseball any more, big league clubs are replacing kid-friendly areas with expanded team shops or restaurants, and there are fewer minor league teams than ever before.
But I do think there is hope. If MLB is really interested in increasing interest and participation in baseball, they’ll start working with small colleges across the country to improve their infrastructure and fan experiences. I’d guess that 99% of the country lives within half an hour of at least some college baseball team. But the fields they play on have nothing for kids to do, and nothing in the way of atmosphere. MLB could give “fan experience” grants to some of these smaller schools (say, they have to be at least 30 miles away from a minor league affiliate to qualify) and put in stations for grilling, playgrounds, etc. In exchange, require that kids get in free, if not everyone. Turn those baseball teams in small communities into the place to be.
Even without much in the way of kid activities, there are tons of kids at college soccer (and formerly softball) games in my town, because they are (were, in the case of softball) free. These days, any player at any small school can also be a “star” with their social media following, and kids relate to that.
Baseball has always been a community game. Travel ball has killed that, to a large extent, so it needs to be brought back.
Makakilo: I have great memories of playing little league baseball. Participation in league baseball is one way to attract younger fans.
Wesley: Getting kids into little league is huge, but just marketing the game well, especially the younger talent would go a long way.
Ben: I think any and all of the above answers are good. In my opinion, the strategy has to be “all of the above” rather than any one specific strategy. Of course, eliminating local blackouts and decreasing the cost of attendance would both go a long way towards improving attendance and local excitement. But those are two strategies the owners are loath to pursue since they directly hit their wallets rather than the league as a whole.
What’s a ‘kid food’ you secretly (or not so secretly) still enjoy as an adult?
DBacksEurope: I’d say simple dishes, such as pasta with instant tomato sauce and prepared meat. I won’t say I enjoy it, but it does the trick from time to time.
Spencer: Until recently it was probably flaming hot Cheetos. But my body no longer enjoys those. So I’ll go simple and say PB&J with Doritos. During summer breaks as a kid my older brother would make us sandwiches and we’d turn on Jurassic Park. We’re going to go see the new installment this summer and we will be sneaking our childhood lunch in.
James: Macaroni and cheese with hot dogs.
Makakilo: Marshmallows! It’s been too long since I ate any marshmallows. And what about Jello? It’s great!
Wesley: i’ll eat almost anything, so I don’t really have an answer for this one.
Ben: I’m not sure if I would consider them a “kid food,” but double-stuff Oreos are still fantastic and absolutely hit the spot for me. I have very fond memories of getting out of the pool into the Louisiana heat and eating Oreos as a child.