Well, that was quite the week, wasn’t it?
Arizona shocked the baseball world and signed Corbin Burnes. Discuss…
Spencer: Caught me by surprise. I know there are some reasons to worry, but it’s impossible not to be excited right? Kendrick has completely altered his miserly ways. And with the opt out, he’s really only a 2-year commitment, which is fine. He’s probably even tradable if necessary for those among the fanbase who hate the deal (pending his no-trade of course). In one signing, the team spent about $200M more than I expected for the whole offseason. Not sure how much he moves the needle, but you really can’t ever have too much pitching.
Makakilo: One encouraging stat is that Corbin Burnes pitched 27 innings in the postseason (2018-2024) with an impressive ERA of 2.33. His career regular season ERA is 3.19. Adding to his value is that he pitched more than 150 innings for four consecutive seasons.
Corbin Burnes’s cutter is his best pitch. For the last 4 seasons, ranking run value of each type of pitch, his cutter’s run value was in the top-11 for all pitch types thrown in the Majors (Baseball Savant, 10 pitch minimum). Run Values follow:
- 20, ranked #7 in 2021.
- 21, ranked #8 in 2022.
- 18, ranked #11 in 2023.
- 20, ranked #4 in 2024.
With one exception in one season (Zac Gallen), none of the current Diamondbacks pitchers had a pitch type that was in the same ballpark. Interestingly, Corbin Burnes struggled with his cutter in August of 2024. With the help of a pitching lab he fixed it so that he had no struggles in September. Backing up his cutter, he has five additional pitch types.
- “If Burnes has one standout skill, it’s his ability to impart spin.” – Ben Clemens, 2021
The following table shows the ZiPS projection for Corbin Burnes.
And one of my hopes for the team became reality!!
- “With my usual optimism, I have hope the Diamondbacks could sign a top-50 free agent.” – Makakilo, 24 December 2024
Brett (DbacksDispatch): I was certainly not expecting to wake up to that news but I can’t lie and say it wasn’t a happy surprise. Burnes has been one of the most reliable (hasn’t missed a start in 3 years I believe) and consistent arms in the game and adding a guy like that to this rotation is nothing but a positive to me. And with the news coming out that there is deferred money, meaning he won’t be counting for the full $35 M AAV, it makes this deal even better in the sense that they should still (hopefully) have more money to work with on potentially bringing in a guy like Tanner Scott (a man can dream okay?) or even Jeff Hoffman to really lock down the bullpen.
DBacksEurope: It was a huge surprise when I woke up and opened the MLBTR app and read that the Diamondbacks had signed Corbin Burnes. I was skeptical at first, because Mike Hazen does not have a great record when it comes to free agency pitchers (either starters or relievers), but after reading the article on FanGraphs about the signing and seeing that same ZIP projection for the coming years that Makakilo just shared, I am quite positive. Burnes is still young and doesn’t have the innings on his arm or the injury history previous signings like Bumgarner and Rodriguez have.
Preston: I was shocked, albeit not quite as shocked as I was nine years ago when I think a piece of shrimp fell out of my mouth as I got the notification of the Greinke signing mid-bite. This was more of a “hmm, interesting” reaction. After seeing the terms of the deal, I think this is an A+ signing. Yes, there’s a bit of a rotation crunch, and it probably decreases some of the leverage Hazen has on the trade market, but the biggest takeaway is that repeated failures on the part of Kendrick and Hazen (Mason Saunders, Montgomery, arguably E-Rod and Greinke) have not kept Kendrick from continuing to chase pitching. Will this free agent signing work out as well as when the Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world in the 1998-1999 offseason by signing Randy Johnson? Likely not. (It’s unlikely Burnes wins the Cy Young each year of this deal.) But it could produce a championship, which is, after all, the main goal.
C. Wesley Baier: Unlike everyone else here, I wasn’t shocked because I actually believed Ken Kendrick when he said he would spend money if the team was competitive. Sure, they didn’t make the playoffs or go back to the World Series in 2024, but they did win more games than 2023. So we shouldn’t be that surprised. (In all seriousness, I was a little surprised, but not that surprised)
1AZfan1: I’ve put my thoughts on what this could mean for the roster here. Beyond that, I was shocked like everyone else here. Awesome that Mike Hazen’s version of ‘all in’ is markedly different than Jerry Jones’ version haha.
Ben: It is an absolute coup by Hazen. There were front-runners, there were dark horses, and there was whatever the D-Backs were. I have no recollection of any hint of rumors about there being mutual interest between the parties. In retrospect, Burnes having a home with his family in the Phoenix area should have been a big clue, but I don’t know how many reporters even knew that fact. Besides the obvious excitement of signing a pitcher of his caliber, I find it really interesting to see the opt-outs that were included in the contract. I am guessing that it’s a safety valve in case things go really south for either him or the team. It also completely squashes the idea of extending Gallen, which I highlighted in my piece last week.
Jeff: It really reminded me of the Zack Greinke singing in 2016 in terms of how out of the blue it seemed and how it caught everyone off guard. I still remember where I was and what I was doing when I found out about Greinke and that will likely be the case for Burns as well.
Corbin Burns is a top 3 pitcher in all of baseball. I have heard some concern over his K% dropping, however according to Eno Sarris (one of the godfathers of Stuff+ on fangraphs) over at the Athletic, the Burns signing was a major coup for Arizona as Burns is still a stud. He was also able to recover the plus movement on his cutter late last year and so it is still an elite pitch. In addition his velocity has actually gone up over the previous seasons.
Finally for me, it is not often that a team has the opportunity to get better while also simultaneously making a division rival like the Giants worse as he was likely to sign there if the Dbacks did nothing. I dont hear this talked about enough.
How does the team sort out its rotation for 2025?
Spencer: I assume: Gallen, Burnes, Kelly, Pfaadt, Montgomery with Ryne ready to take the first opening and ERod hurt. Throughout the year, I expect 1-2 of those names to be skipped or hurt at any given moment with the likes of Diaz and Mena and Walston and Henry and maybe some other young guys waiting for their opportunity. The ordering of the rotation matters very little to me, but I expect some sort of alternating by throwing arm.
Makakilo: One possibility is that the Diamondbacks could implement a six-man rotation to start the season. After a month, the Diamondbacks could decide whether to move one starter to the bullpen or AAA. It is possible that the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks each start the season with a six-man rotation.
- “At last week’s GM meetings in San Antonio, Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said it was a ‘fair bet’ that L.A. would go with a six-man rotation.” – Juan Toribio
Brett (DBacksDispatch): my guess would be that it is going to be Burnes, Gallen, Kelly, ERod and then Pfaadt and Nelson can “duel it out” in spring training for who earns that final rotation spot. Obviously that would only happen if some team is willing to trade for Jordan Montgomery and get his contract off the books but I’m not entirely sure what that would take on the Snakes end for giving up to make it happen. My fear is that Monty, with a full and regular Spring Training, bounces back to the 3.5-ish ERA guy he has been for most of the last 4-5 years and looks like the guy that helped Texas to a ship against us.
DBacksEurope: I think the Diamondbacks will trade one of Brandon Pfaadt or Ryne Nelson in a blockbuster trade with several teams and land a closer and another bat. I’d dream of Helsley and Arenado but the latter would block a trade to Arizona.
Preston: At least one somebody, possibly two, will be traded. Ryne Nelson is the most likely; his stock may be as high as it will ever be. Pfaadt is a possibility. Montgomery remains a near-certainty to be dealt, quite possibly packaged with the other starter. I don’t think Burnes is a lock to start on Opening Day. That’s been Gallen’s spot the last couple years, and I think Burnes will understand that he’ll have to earn that spot in Spring Training. Here’s hoping that Gallen and Burnes can push each other the way Johnson and Schilling did. They’ll be ably followed by Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez (if healthy) and Brandon Pfaadt. The depth (even with trading away two starters) will look better than it did last year, if only because we’ve seen Blake Walston and Yilber Diaz in the big leagues and know more of what to expect.
C. Wesley Baier: I’d imagine the rotation when everyone is healthy will be Gallen, Burnes, Kelly, Erod, and Pfaadt/Nelson/Diaz/Walston for the fifth spot. Along with a trade of Jordan Montgomery, I’m expecting a trade of at least one of those four before Spring training, but then again, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Hazen holds on to all four until the deadline just to maintain some depth, and to get a better return.
1AZfan1: First, I think Gallen gets the nod as the Opening Day guy. It’s a largely ceremonial position, and I think Gallen’s time in service to this organization trumps Burnes’ paycheck when it comes to deciding who gets the ball first. At least that’s how I would bet Lovullo views it. Also, I agree with Makakilo that a six-man rotation is very likely, at least for the first six weeks (assuming we only trade away one of our current 7 possible starters). The DBacks open the season with 13 games in 14 days, then have a stretch of 16 straight game days from April 29 – May 14 before settling into a rhythm of one off day a week for a couple months. If there were more off days built in to the schedule early, they probably wouldn’t go to a six-man, but I think it makes sense with the schedule as it is written.
Ben: I’m cooler on the idea of the team going with a six-man rotation. It limits your bullpen options and really depends on all six players not having blowups. I would be shocked if the team enters Spring Training with all of the current rotation options on the roster. I think Monty is still the most likely candidate to get moved, but the return will be entirely dictated by how much of his salary the team is willing to cover.
Even still, there are so many teams looking for rotational talent and too few difference-makers available so a match will be found somewhere.
Jeff: I believe Hazen is going to do what he did in the past in the Varsho trade for example and deal from an area of depth to address a weakness. Especially because starting pitching is at such a premium in this game right now and now Burns is off the board so someone will come calling. If I had to bet, likely one of Monty, Erod, or one of our near MLB ready starting pitchers will no longer be with the team when spring training hits. I believe Hazen will be hesitant to move a Pfaadt or a Nelson due to Gallen and Kelly likely walking after 2025. I could also see a competition for the 5th rotation spot in spring training with the loser or losers moving to a long man role in the bullpen.
The D-backs also traded for Josh Naylor. What do you think?
Spencer: As an Ohioan, I love it! Naylor has long been a favorite of mine. Cecconi may bite us in the long run with Cleveland’s wizardry and a fulltime bullpen shift, but I think that’s a fair price to pay for a mid-prime power bat filling an obvious hole. I was fully prepared to be happy about a reclamation attempt at Tork, so to have an actual baseball player instead is fine by me. Risk? Yes. Necessary for the contention window? Also yes.
Makakilo: Six thoughts follow:
Josh Naylor is a power batter, especially with runners in scoring position (RISP). In 2024, Naylor’s HRs and RBIs were one of best in Majors per FanGraphs.
- 10 of 31 Home Runs were with RISP (31 HRs ranked #10 in the AL).
- 81 of 108 RBIs were with RISP (108 RBIs ranked #8 in the MLB).
2023 was a breakout season for Josh Naylor. Then in 2024, despite that his BABIP fell from .326 to .246 (unlucky) his overall results stayed well above average (from 127 wRC+ to 118 wRC+). In 2025, if BABIP bounces back, he will exceed expectations.
It is fair to think of this trade as a one-for-one Naylor for Cecconi. The Diamondbacks traded away draft pick #72, but Walker signed with another team for more than $50 Million. The Diamondbacks gained draft pick #29 (might be adjusted by developments) (as well as boosted international signing money from $4.75 to $5.25 Million).
Josh Naylor was more valuable than Cecconi because Cecconi is more accurately characterized as a reliever prospect than a Majors-ready starter. The following words ring true even more with the signing of Corbin Burnes.
- “While it is not only possible, but likely, that Cecconi will again start the season in [AAA], the biggest decision to be made for Cecconi in 2025 is to decide what role he has moving forward. Most indicators point to Cecconi moving full-time to the bullpen…” – James Attwood
What role will Cecconi play for the Guardians?
Looking at Roster Resource, my view is that the Guardians need a fifth starter until Shane Bieber returns from the IL (perhaps half-way through the season). Slade Cecconi will compete with Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen, and Doug Nikhazy for that position.
- “On balance, when you look at the totality of the transactions that we’ve been able to complete this winter, we’ve been able to significantly fortify that group [pitchers competing for starting rotation]. And Slade fits into that.” – Chris Antonetti, Guardians president of baseball operations, December 2024
Why did the Guardians want Cecconi?
- “According to Antonetti, his calling card in the minors has been his ability to attack the strike zone with really low walk rates.” – Joe Noga
Mind-Bending statistics follow: Looking at Z% and BB9 shows that Cecconi was better than ALL the Diamondbacks starters. Details are in the following table (2024 Majors data from FanGraphs).
Brett (DBacksDispatch): Its hard to really replace Walkers production, both in the field and in the box, but with Naylor being a lot younger and coming off an All Star season it has me feeling a bit more comfortable with our first base position, and if we can possibly extend him then I wouldn’t necessarily be opposed. Also, we don’t have to deal with Pavin Smith getting the bulk of AB’s/Fielding time at first base.
DBacksEurope: They hardly gave up anything and they will yield a compensation pick next year when Naylor walks away. Maybe Cleveland will turn Cecconi into a valuable piece, they are better at doing that than we are.
Preston: I’m relatively alone in not liking this trade. Given that I’m alone in that department, it’s necessary to explain why.
- Naylor is not going to replace Christian Walker. He’s an excellent left-handed bat, arguably better at the plate than Walker, but calling him an average defender would be generous. Baseball Savant actually thinks he’s a capable (not good) defender, but they are the outlier. While many people here badmouth Pavin Smith’s defense, his defense (primarily in the outfield, where his lack of range hurts him) is roughly equivalent to Naylor’s first base defense. If he’s playing first base every day, that hurts the entire infield. He should, instead, be viewed as a replacement for Joc Pederson.
- Naylor is also not going to replace Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Naylor does have the better batting average against RHP, but is worse in terms of OPB and, most importantly, slugging. That works out to Pederson being 43 points better against RHP. Naylor does not struggle against LHP to the extent that Pederson does; in fact, his OPS is 43 points better than Pederson’s, but it’s still 23% worse than his overall numbers. Grichuk’s career OPS against RHP is 160 points higher than Naylor’s. While DH is Naylor’s best position, and he won’t need to be platooned as much as Pederson, he’s still a substantial step back from last year’s production.
- Naylor walks too much. Is this a strange complaint? In most cases, yes. How is there such a thing as walking too much? But in Naylor’s case, he would be much more valuable for the Diamondbacks if he walked less and sold out for more power. Statcast has 174 players with 150 or more “competitive runs” last year, which is the runs on which they base sprint speed. The only players slower than Naylor were Salvador Perez, Keibert Ruiz, Ty France, Gio Urshela, and Eloy Jimenez. But what makes his lack of speed worse is the number of times it is on display. His 245 competitive runs was tied for 24th in all of baseball. With the number of fast runners the Diamondbacks have, he clogs up the basepaths too much. He’s slower than all of the projected regulars on the team, and while somebody has to be the slowest, you want the slowest player to be a big power guy, not a big on-base guy. Naylor has power, and he’ll need to increase that and not worry so much about drawing walks.
- Batting metrics don’t foreshadow a massive improvement. Yes, Naylor has been a low-BABIP guy relative to exit velocity, but one only need look at the sprint speed for the reason for that. His exit velocity, while solidly above average, is not great. His hard hit rate is average. Most worrying is that he hits the ball on the ground far too much. He hits ground balls at an above-average rate, meaning that he’s a double play waiting to happen, and keeping his BABIP low. His “LA-Sweet spot” (Baseball Savant’s combination of launch angle and hard hit rates) is in the 11th percentile. Yes, 18.6% of his fly balls left the yard last year, and he might be able to keep that up moving to the desert, but there just aren’t enough fly balls.
In conclusion, what Naylor is, is a replacement for Joc Pederson who can also play first base and/or be a full-time DH if efforts to acquire players elsewhere fall through. There’s still a need for a right-handed bat, preferably one who can play enough first base to balance out Naylor’s lack of defense. The trade wasn’t a bad trade in terms of the exchange of value, but it was a curious one, given as it goes against everything that the Diamondbacks have done well in recent years. A team built largely on baserunning and defense traded for one of the worst baserunners in baseball and a below-average defender? It just doesn’t make sense.
C. Wesley Baier: I’m good with the acquisition, but I’m not really a fan of giving up on Slade. I would not be surprised to see him become an elite reliever in 2025. I do also worry about Naylor’s defense and poor baserunning, but that’s a lesser concern IMO.
1AZfan1: Preston makes several solid points. However, I’d counter that we don’t need this offense to be last year’s offense. At least we shouldn’t, especially with Burnes added and presuming one more impact reliever incoming. Naylor may not replace Walker 1-for-1 or the Joc/Grichuk DH platoon, but he is still an impact bat that can anchor a lineup that’s somewhere between 10-15th in MLB. With this pitching staff, that should be enough.
Ben: When this trade was announced, I’ll admit to being pretty surprised. Naylor is an awkward fit on this roster. The two calling-cards for this team over the past two-plus years has been stellar defense and speed. Neither of those things are particularly associated with Naylor to put it politely. Additionally, with just one year of team control, the team will be in an identical situation next year. Hopefully, one of the 1B prospects takes a meaningful step forward this season, but it’s just as likely they don’t and the team will have to find another stopgap a year from now. I don’t think it’s a bad move necessarily. It raises the floor for the team and he opens up some possibilities that wouldn’t have been possible otherwise. As heart-warming as Pavin’s improvement at the plate was last year, I am still not sold on it being a permanent change. Naylor has a much longer track record of offensive production than Pavin does and will be an everyday lineup presence. I was pleasantly surprised by how light the return was for Cleveland too. Cecconi has plenty of talent and potential, but I was not impressed with his cup of coffee this year and evidently the front office agreed.
Jeff: I absolutely love the deal for Arizona as it potentially addresses 2 areas 1B and DH and didnt cost the Dbacks half of what I thought it would.
For me, what goes overlooked about Naylor is his clutch factor. Something that Walker really did seem to lack. Some guys get better with the game on the line and runners on base and some guys lock up. Aside from driving in 108 runs last year, in 2022 Naylor ranked 2nd in MLB in OPS+ in high leverage situations. 2023 and 2024 were no different with a 141 OPS+and a 181 OPS+ respectively. In addition, Naylor was likely still recovering from the gruesome ankle injury he suffered in 2023 last year (I dont recommend watching it). So as a 27 YO further removed from such an injury in his walk year before his big shot at free agency, dont be surprised to see him have a career year.
What remains for Mike Hazen to do?
Spencer: Some iteration of Grichuk (although personally I’d like to see Lawlar and Marte fill that role at DH). Some outfield right handedness would be ideal I think. And the team doesn’t seem to trust Martinez or Puk or Ginkel as closer for some reason, so another bullpen arm as well. I’m not thrilled with the reports of interest in Yates (or spending for Scott – relievers are just too volatile), but I’m ok with some of the trade options like Helsley or Munoz; I’m not sure either is actually available. Plus I expect the price for both to be high (at least Jones – MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo’s choice for 2025 highest Top 100 prospect riser ) and while I laud the 2025-2026 focus, my personal preference is regular playoff appearances and that’s likely to require a strong farm system.
Makakilo: Looking at the must do items in this AZ Snake Pit article, perhaps the most important remaining item is:
- After Acquiring Josh Naylor: “I think at some point, at some position on the field, we’re going to need to get a little more right-handed. But I wouldn’t rule out left-handed hitters either. But I think we need to at least probably focus a little bit on that.” — Mike Hazen, December 2024
It would be great if Jordan Lawlar was ready to be that right-handed batter. However, I am not confident that he is ready to hit well in the Majors.
Brett (DBacksDispatch): I would say that finalizing the RH DH would be on the list of priorities next to getting more bullpen help. As I said above guys like Tanner Scott or even Jeff Hoffman who have been really solid since the start of 2023, or even making a trade for Ryan Helsley, would be really good pieces that would finalize that back end of the bullpen and give us a little more breathing room for later innings in games.
DBacksEurope: Something at the backend of the bullpen and a big bat. JD Martinez could be a good choice, that would leave Hazen with the prospect capital he can use to trade for a closer.
Preston: As above, a right-handed bat, preferably one who is above-average defensively at first base. But the best right-handed bat on the market is J.D. Martinez, who would need to be an everyday DH. It would be impossible to rule out a Randal Grichuk reunion, given how Gurriel was re-signed last offseason. But thinking outside the box might be helpful, as well. Jurickson Profar has never played first base, but he surely has the capability for it, or Gurriel could move to first base and Profar move into the outfield. Profar has been basically identical from either side of the plate, but it could be argued he’s better right-handed. He’s probably too expensive, but is the kind of flexible player the Diamondbacks could use, and if he’d sign for 2/$25 or 3/$30, I think it would be worth the investment.
C. Wesley Baier: Right handed bat + elite reliever seem to be what’s left on Hazen’s to do list. Not much I can add that hasn’t already been said.
1AZfan1: If Hazen only does one more thing, I hope it’s to add an impact reliever. Beyond that, a small contract for a right-handed bat willing to have limited playing time at either 1B or OF. As I see the offense, I don’t see a lot of playing time available barring a trade of Pavin or Alek/Jake. Adding to the bullpen, to me, is the one thing that has to be done before the team reports in February.
Jeff: Hazen needs to add an impact reliever with closing experience and a right handed OF bat with power. I dont think it needs to be explained why we need a closer, but the OF bat is purely because if something happens to Gurriel then this team has an entirely left handed outfield. Hazen has taken this roster so far, it just seems like if he doesnt balance out the outfield that would be a big miss. Grichuk would be perfect as he would also add the lefty mashing ability to help round out the DH role. Without a guy like Grichuk I also worry that this lineup could be a little too susceptible to left handed pitching.
Ben: I agree with everyone that a higher-end reliever is needed, but I suspect that’s at least partially true for nearly every contending club. I am less concerned about that reliever having closing experience. I think Justin Martinez has shown that he has the raw talent and mental fortitude to handle being a closer. And if he starts to falter, Puk has shown similar skills in his briefer time with the team. Outside of another reliever, a right-handed power bat would go a long way towards balancing the lineup as well.
Now it’s all but over, what will you remember about the D-backs 2024 season?
Spencer: The offense. Montgomery’s catastrophic attempt at pitching. Ketel Marte’s amazing defensive upgrade. Pavin Smith’s near home run cycle. The injuries. The team’s lack of motivation in September. MLB’s desperate need to have big media draw teams in the playoffs….
Makakilo: The 2024 season was very similar to 2019, when the Diamondbacks did not make the playoffs but were very close. Unlike 2020, the following season (2025) will likely be a great success! History rhymes, but results can vary.
Brett (DBacksDispatch): Ketel Marte’s stellar season that if not for the ankle injury that cost him a month (I will still never forgive you Garrett Stubbs lol) could have helped him make a real case for his MVP candidacy, along with Justin Martinez really breaking out and showing the kind of stuff he has in his arsenal
DBacksEurope: A very bad start, failing free agency pitchers, an incredible run in the last few months, but the Diamondbacks eventually blew their postseason wild card in a very disappointing way.
Preston: Gotta be up there with 2000 in terms of all-time disappointing seasons. To be five games better than 2023 and miss out on the postseason entirely, as well as being the first team ever to tie for a postseason spot and not get to play a game 163 were twin disappointments.
Also, by eliminating tiebreaker games MLB set up a scenario where a team would not care about winning a game, knowing they got in regardless. Had losing one of the games of that doubleheader meant that they’d have to play extra games, both teams would have treated that final game as a winner-take-all game. As it was…
But yes, the Diamondbacks choked. But they choked in 2023 too, and still snuck in. Hopefully in 2025, they won’t choke.
C. Wesley Baier: Despite improving during the regular season, ultimately they choked in the end, instead of falling ass backwards into a playoff spot like in ‘23.
1AZfan1: “We know…it’s Geno!” and that sham of doubleheader between NYM-ATL.
Ben: I’ll remember the season for the emergence of Ryne Nelson, the redemption of Corbin Carroll, and the choke that was September.
The late Rickey Henderson stole 130 bases in a season. Will anyone ever come close to that?
Spencer: Probably eventually. I doubt it’ll be soon and I hope it is never touched. Feels like one of those records that should stand forever. But knowing MLB and their compulsive need to make headlines, they’ll find a way to somehow have Ohtani and Sasaki both tie or break the record in the same season for LA.
Makakilo: In the last 30 years, 78 stolen bases was the most (Jose Reyes 2007). 130 SB would be a 67% improvement on Jose Reyes’ season. Despite the bigger bases, and despite limited disengagements, that much improvement is unlikely. On the other hand, I like to believe that anything is possible.
Brett (DBacksDispatch): As Makakilo pointed out above me, even with the bigger bases and limited pickoff’s/disengagements the chance that someone could even break 100 in a season, let alone 130, seems a bit out of reach for even the fastest players in the game like Elly De La Cruz or Trea Turner. Rickey Henderson was truly a 1 of a kind player and will be missed by all the baseball community.
C. Wesley Baier: Although I don’t disagree on the career total being completely out of reach, I disagree on the single season record being out of reach. I don’t think any team or player has really tested the limits of the current rules. It’s highly unlikely, yes, but I think well within the realm of possibility. Rickey was a special player with the perfect skillet and personality for being a stolen base machine, so I don’t see that happening until we see another player with that same kind of skill set enter the game.
DBacksEurope: Stealing bases has become increasingly more easy, so I assume that his record will be broken by someone at a certain moment.
Preston: Rickey was Rickey. His combination of speed, eye, and power is rare. But his stolen base numbers were somewhat artificially boosted. In 1982, when he stole 130 bases, he had just 28 doubles and triples. From 1980-1991, during which time he stole 961 bases, he collected 298 doubles and 48 triples. He had 1,446 singles. That’s 80.7% of his hits going for singles. From 1992, the year after he broke Lou Brock’s record, onwards, 81.7% of his hits were singles. While he was a lot slower than he had been. I think there’s no doubt that he held up plenty of times when he could have taken the extra base just so he could attempt to steal it. And that’s great for entertainment, but wouldn’t be tolerated by managers or front offices in today’s game. So no, I don’t think either of his records are attainable, barring some even more fundamental changes that cut down on doubles and triples.
1AZfan1: Close? If getting to 100 steals is close then I’d say yes. Elly is certainly capable. 130 may be a bridge too far, at least in the near term.
Ben: Yeah, this feels akin to Cal Rikpen Jr’s streak for untouchable baseball record. And honestly, barring additional rule changes, I don’t see it really being challenged in a meaningful way in the foreseeable future.