Thoughts on the slower than expected start, quality starts, and questionable food!
At time of writing, the Diamondbacks are .500 and closer to the Rockies than the Padres. How we feeling?
Spencer: Not gonna lie, pretty awful if I’m being honest with myself. I had exceptionally high hopes that I did my best to curtail because life happens. We’re now in mid-April, losing another game to Milwaukee of all teams. “Its early” and “wait until sample sizes are worth paying attention to,” but like…. on paper this team shouldn’t be playing the way they are. Worried is an understatement. I’m more interested in the 2025 draft than I am the games being played on April 12, 2025 (and mind you, this draft is weaker than most of the drafts in the last decade…). That hasn’t been true since 2022 or 2021…. The team should be embarrassed given the quality of teams they’ve let walk all over them this year. The Yankees are toothless outside of judge. The Nationals are a young team with minimal floor. The Brewers are settling for mediocre in the worst division in baseball. At least the Cubs are legit trying…
Obviously I wrote this while we were in the 17 inning scoreless streak. But I do stand by my feelings. The team looks better recently but overall I’m worried about how flawed we’ve seemed.
Wesley: They could always be worse. That’s the reason why I always put out the absolute worst expectations and predictions of how the team will do every year. You can’t be disappointed if you expect to be disappointed. *taps forehead*
It would not surprise me to see them miss the playoffs considering how tough the division is, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see them easily win a Wild Card spot. Honestly, it’s too early to say anything other than that a .500 winning percentage through the first 1/12th of the season is not a reason to panic.
Spencer: Honestly, I quite dislike the negative expectations perspective. I’ve defo used it in the past, but as fans we should expect more of ourselves and our team. If we can’t expect a positive season, why are we following them?
1AZfan1: I’m not worried about the 162 yet, but it has been very frustrating on a night-to-night basis. It seems we aren’t consistently maximizing opportunities through our offense or defense.
Ben: It’s definitely been frustrating because we all have a little PTSD from last season when the team missed out on the playoffs by a single game. That kind of recency bias means that every loss feels like a much bigger deal than it would be otherwise. Plus, we’re likely paying much greater attention to the team than the average fan since it’s our job. Overall, I’m feeling mixed, but hoping that their best baseball is still to come.
Preston: There is absolutely no cause for panic at this point. SRS has the Diamondbacks at 1.7, higher than both the Dodgers and the Padres. The worst team the Diamondbacks have played so far, the Nationals, followed up beating the Diamondbacks by beating the Dodgers both by games and by run differential. The Diamondbacks are scoring more runs per game than anyone in the division. The Padres are outperforming their Pythag by 2 wins, and the Dodgers by 3 wins, already. The Diamondbacks have the eighth best run differential despite being tied for the toughest schedule so far.
There are more reasons for optimism than there are reasons for panic.
Makakilo: I am feeling positive and optimistic.
Pitching. In postgame interviews on Saturday, Jake McCarthy’s laudatory comments about Corbin Burnes’ pitching (as well at Torey Lovullo’s laudatory comments on Sunday postgame) led me to think Burnes pitches excellently but his results are inconsistent.
Batting. In Saturday’s game all five runs were scored in the ninth inning. An argument could be made that the Diamondbacks bat excellently, but inning-to-inning results are inconsistent.
Torey Lovullo said that D-back players need to “continue to remember how good we are.” He went on to say the importance of dynamic approach and believing in themselves.
Wesley: I totally get not liking the negative expectation perspective, especially if it’s just being pessimistic for pessimism’s sake. No one likes someone who is constantly a joy-killing debbie downer. I DO try to be so over the top ridiculous that it’s (hopefully) clear that I am saying it in a joking, tongue-in-cheek, non-serious fashion e.g. predicting the team to go 1-161 when they had already won two games. If I can’t do that, I just try to have realistic expectations. Besides, they’re now 9-7, two games better than .500, so there now is very little reason to be pessimistic in the first place.
ISH95: I’m with Ben. The fact we lost by zero games last season makes each loss this season sting even more. There’s always a nagging thought of what if this is the loss that makes them miss a wild card spot. All things considered, though, it really hasn’t been that bad. Couple of tough losses, but the pitching staff just put together their first string of five quality starts in a row since 2018, and, 17 inning scoreless streaks aside, there have been reasons for hope from the offense. Mostly named Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo.
The pitching has struggled so far this season. What is one thing you’re looking for to know they’re turning a corner?
Spencer: I dunno. It’s hard to find a fault with a “quality start” that your offense loses for you. I’d like to see pitching into the 6th/7th inning regularly regardless of the name/number on the jersey. I’d also like to see arms pick up their defense’s slack more often. It’s time to admit we aren’t the defensive juggernaut we’re used to and good pitchers need to figure out how to get batters out in real time rather than hypothetically. FIP is a fine stat, but actual results matter.
1AZfan1: Concur with Spencer re: Quality Starts. We’ve now had 5 straight Quality Starts after Gallen’s Sunday effort. I made mention of it in my Friday night recap and I’ve only grown more curious after extending our streak two more games: did we have a streak of three, four, or five straight Quality Starts at any point last season? Well, I did the research and from what I can tell, we had 3 different streaks of 3 straight Quality Starts and a fourth streak that stretched for 4 Quality Starts in a row (June 18-21 in 3 games against the Nats and the series opener in Philly). Never had a string of 5 straight Quality Starts. Anyway, leaving that tangent behind and answering the question presented, our starters should probably stop giving out so many free passes. Averaging 4.0 BB/9 is good for 25th in MLB among starting rotations. The non-Mantiply bullpen has been great (and with Ginkel-sized reinforcements on the horizon), so if the starters can limit the walks and keep pitching later into games, we’ll be in a good position in a lot of ballgames.
Ben: It all stems from the starters in my opinion. I know that’s not a particularly nuanced or “hot” take, but even on days like Sunday when Gallen put together a “quality start,” Blake and I were commenting that it didn’t necessarily feel that way. It’s frustrating because the bullpen has been inconceivably (likely unsustainably) good while the rotation has been mixed – look no further than Gallen himself who has had one undeniably great start with now three mixed ones. This weekend’s series against the Brewers featured a Milwaukee offense who was incredibly bad with RISP, going 4-for-22 (.181) across the three games and just 1-for-11 in the final two games. That’s a full 50 points lower than the league and likely points to the Brewers getting more unlucky than anything else. The rotation simply has to be more consistent if this team is going to get where it wants to go.
Preston: The pitching has struggled…by ERA and ERA+. FIP wise, the pitching has been right about average, and in terms of WHIP, the Diamondbacks rank sixth in the league. The reason for the higher ERA and lower ERA+ is simple: the Diamondbacks have stranded the second-fewest number of runners in all of baseball. This isn’t a bullpen issue; the percentage of inherited runners scoring is actually better than average. An astounding 44%, basically, of batters that reach base are scoring. That’s 37% across the league and 29% for the Padres. Reversion to the mean fixes that.
Makakilo: When Diamondbacks pitchers keep the first batter of nearly every inning off the bases, I’ll know they have turned the corner. In Saturday’s game, outs happened for 6 of 9 first batters.
Wesley: I agree with Spencer. Although the starting pitching has been an issue, the inconsistent offense isn’t helping. There are issues with it but I think once the offense is rolling, it’ll be easier for the starters to do their jobs.
Corbin isn’t running. Worried about it?
Spencer: No. He’s in scoring position on first. I’d rather see him focus on getting on base and carrying the team as he has so far in 2025 than watching an arbitrary stat like stolen bases accumulate.
1AZfan1: Yes, he’s in scoring position at first (shoot, he’s in scoring position in the batter’s box) but the guys behind him are still able to GIDP when he’s at first and he can’t score from first on 3 straight flyouts, either. If we’re stringing hits together or getting a bunch of homers, Corbin doesn’t have to steal. But when we aren’t, as has been the case for much of this past week after Marte went down, it helps to manufacture a scoring situation instead of relying on big knocks or stringing hits together.
Ben: Ironically, we got to see Corbin’s first steal of the year today in-person! But no, I’m not worried about it. I think it likely has more to do with the situations in which he’s found himself rather than anything “wrong” with Carroll himself. I do however think there needs to be a discussion about moving him in the lineup while Marte is on the IL shelf. Right now, there just isn’t the production from the bottom of the lineup on a consistent basis to get on base for him to then drive in while simultaneously not having the consistency to be driven in himself by someone behind him.
Preston: He’s the most valuable player in the National League so far. I think that answers the question.
Makakilo: No, not worried. With runners (including Carroll) on first base, through Saturday the Diamondbacks have 21 hits that likely score Carroll. That ranks third in the Majors behind the Cubs with 22 and the Yankees with 23. Why should he steal second when he can often score from first?
With joy, consider that the Diamondbacks’ 21 hits was higher than the Dodgers who had 15 hits.
Another point (but weaker than the first) is that with a runner on first base the Diamondbacks’ 1.62 ratio of Doubles/Triples/HRs to GIDP is above the 1.31 league average.
The following chart shows this season’s batting results with a runner on first base. Data from Baseball Savant.
Wesley: You don’t need to steal bases when you’re hitting them out of the Ballpark. I’m sure he’ll finish the year with at least 20-30 stolen bases.
The Giants are one of the big surprises so far, are they for real or are they going to come back down to earth?
Spencer: I still think they are going to crash down the earth. But I would’ve said the same of the 2021 Giants into August. I feel bad for the fans of the team if they do continue to over achieve though, because I don’t like the current roster and I’d be worried they set themselves back again by trading minor leaguers for a team that’s likely to lose in the first round of the playoffs again. Good for the 2027 diamondbacks if/when that happens though.
1AZfan1: I don’t expect them to keep a .700 winning percentage, but there’s no reason to think they won’t be there until the end. Their pitching, especially the bullpen, has been otherworldly so there’s likely regression coming there, but SF is a great park to pitch in so if their offense can keep sniffing league average they should pitch well enough to get at least 85 wins.
Ben: They’ve looked very strong in the opening weeks, but I’m not convinced just yet. Annoyingly, they’ve been much better than I expected along with the rest of the NL West to this point. I’ve been impressed that they’ve had two series against 2024 playoff teams and went 5-1 against them – including going into Yankee Stadium and taking two out of three against a strong team. However, we’ve seen plenty of examples of teams with hot starts to the season fizzling out at some point so let’s check back in about a month or so.
Preston: Their underlying numbers are stronger than I would have expected. They could keep it up, but it’s early days. Their pitching should be fine, but can they score runs?
Makakilo: The latest power rankings (8 April) ranked the Diamondbacks two spots better than the Giants. That power ranking supports my view that the Diamondbacks will finish the season with more wins than the Giants.
Wesley: I’m skeptical that the Giants are legitimate, and I expect them to eventually fall back to earth. Despite hitting like it, Mike Yastrzemski isn’t the reincarnation of his grandfather, and I expect a significant drop off from the 316/.458/.553 triple slash line and 197 OPS+ he’s currently sporting. Jung Hoo Lee has a 197 OPS+, but I don’t think he will fall back to earth quite as much as I expect Yas to do. Wilmer Flores isn’t a 166 OPS+ hitter either. Robbie Ray has been pitching quite well, to the tune of 129 ERA+, but there are always questions with health. Overall, their Pythag W/L going into Sundays game is a game worse than their actual W/L. If they don’t fall back to earth? The Dbacks are going to have a very tough time making it into the playoffs.
ISH95: I’m very skeptical of them, myself, but I’d be hard pressed to put a specific reason on it. I just wasn’t very high on them as a team going into the season, and now I’m just expecting them to fall back to where I thought they would be.
What’s a food you love, but completely understand other people hating?
Spencer: I’ve always enjoyed spiced food. Indian, authentic Chinese, Mexican, etc. For me it adds to my dining experience, but it isn’t for the faint of heart. And for many Americans whose ancestry is Western European, I totally understand not having a system that can’t handle the flavor and its effects on the body. It isn’t for everyone and that’s ok.
1AZfan1: Little Caesar’s pizza. I totally understand that as pizza goes, it’s closer to F-tier than S-tier (as my boys say), but I have zero issues paying as little as I do for it. To me, I think that the cost savings compared to any other pizza joint makes it a fine option when I just need something hot and fast. And when you’re trying to feed growing boys, usually quantity>quality.
Makakilo: Kiwi fruit (yellow or green).
Justin: Two things come to mind kippered herring and pickles. (not together lol!) My Scottish grandparents lived next door to me when I was growing up here in Tucson/Marana. My grandfather would eat kippered herring and little me thought “if grandpa is eating it, I will too!” So I love all fish and occasionally eat that as well. I also prefer unsweetened tea, and my favorite is earl grey tea teabags. Perhaps I would have ended up liking unsweetened tea/earl grey/kipper on my own, but I kind of doubt it.
Pickles- I love pickles, but it seems like there area lot of people that hate them.
Wesley: Most prominently, its gotta be blue veined cheeses and various fermented foods like pickles, kimchi, fish sauce, etc. I am not a huge fan of liver, so I completely understand why someone wouldn’t like the taste of paté, foie gras, or liverwurst. I can handle the mineral-y liver aftertaste when it’s mild like in those, but anything stronger I can’t, so I totally get not like those either.
ISH95: Sushi. I can, and have, eat it all day, but at the same time, I’m well aware that it’s raw fish, I’m well aware what can come with raw fish, and I totally understand if that isn’t something someone wants to eat.
Ben: I really like well-prepared tofu, but I completely understand why people have a natural revulsion to it. I suspect that most folks haven’t had tofu in any great form, which probably colors their perception, but it can be so filling and satisfying when done well!