We get our panel’s kneejerk reaction thoughts on Spring Training, Perdomo’s contract, and more!
Any knee jerk reactions to the first couple of spring training games?
Jim: Corbin Burnes will win the NL Cy Young Award.
DBacksEurope: The Dodgers suck!
Makakilo: At the start of spring training, I’m looking for a high on base percentage (OBP). So far I’m happy because in their first game, the Diamondbacks had 12 hits and 3 walks.
Ben: I like the ABS so far!
1AZfan1: We’re going to lose the season series against the Rockies
ISH95: We have the worst pitching staff in baseball.
The big news of the week was Geraldo Perdomo’s extension. Initial thoughts?
Spencer: PHENOMENAL! I’ve been his biggest supporter for a while now and I’m very pleased to see him get his money. He’s the type of player every team needs to be truly successful.
DBacksEurope: Always good to see an extension for a player we value. It’s not like we extended Zac Gallen nor was Perdomo going to walk away next year, but still Ok.
Makakilo: In previous seasons, I’ve written that early player extensions are one way the Diamondbacks can keep great players despite their budget being less than many other teams. For that reason, my response is, “Bravo!”
My view is that Lawlar is a year away from playing shortstop in the Majors. When Lawlar is ready, then it could be interesting to see whether Lawlar plays third base.
Ben: Honestly, I’m on the fence about it, which is very similar to how I felt about Ketel Marte’s extension back in 2018. At that point, Marte had “only” accumulated 4.0 bWAR and had a combined OPS+ of 84, but Hazen and his staff clearly saw something they liked and trusted him to make improvements in his game. Thankfully, Marte validated those beliefs with good showings in 2018 and ‘19 – albeit followed by three mediocre seasons – before re-emerging as an MVP candidate the last two years. To this point in his career, Perdomo has accumulated 6.7 bWAR and a cumulative OPS+ of 84, but 2024 was his most valuable season to this point and he’s still just 25 years old so clearly they expect him to take another step in his development moving forward. As Steak pointed out in the article immediately after the signing, Perdomo only needs to generate 5-6 bWAR to earn his salary, which he has a solid chance of doing. Alternatively, his $11 million AAV would put him on the JP Crawford/Ha-Seong Kim tier of MLB shortstops, which is a favorable comparison to both of them.
1AZfan1: I’ll be the devil’s advocate here. I love Perdomo, but I feel like his skill set is extremely fragile. According to Baseball Savant’s player comparison model, Kevin Newman is the second-most comparable player to Perdomo and comparing them shows remarkable similarities:
We all love what Newman did last year, but none of us would want to pay him $11M which is the AAV of Perdomo’s extension. Perdomo provides leadership qualities, no doubt, but if he doesn’t outperform his expected statistics like he has the past couple years (a statistical anomaly laid out in this article) he’s awfully close to being a replacement level player. I truly hope that Perdomo makes the extension valuable for us, and I think he’s capable of doing it, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing.
Spencer: Conversely, Zips has Perdomo’s number 1 Comp as Ben Zobrist. I’d be perfectly content if that’s what Perdomo becomes at the new price point. The next two names are David Eckstein and FP Santangelo. 1AZfan1’s point is valid, but there are other comps to evaluate as well.
ISH95: There’s very few reasons not to like the deal. $11 million AAV is pretty close to nothing these days, and he has already shown that he is the field general for the team already. Even if it doesn’t work out, though, the deal doesn’t hamstring us in any sort of way. I like it.
Speculation time: does this potentially mean anything for the other notable middle infielders
Spencer: Not currently. We need depth, and this changes nothing about the 2025 infield.
DBacksEurope: Nah, man, Perdomo is a regular in the lineup anyhow at the moment. Hopefully a new Nick Ahmed steps up but otherwise we’ll have a solid though unspectacular shortstop for the coming seasons.
Makakilo: When Lawlar is ready to play in the Majors, then it’s possible that he and Perdomo play at shortstop and third base. If that happens this season (it may not), it could push Eugenio Suarez to the bench. That would impact other infield bench players. As I wrote in last week’s round table, there are a lot of players competing for an infield bench spot.
1AZfan1: Perdomo isn’t making so much that it makes it a bad deal if he doesn’t play shortstop, so there is a path forward for Lawlar to seize the shortstop role, but Perdomo’s deal does make it much more of an “earn it” path for Lawlar. I feel like Lawlar is the better athlete and his ceiling is higher than that of Gerry, but maybe the team doesn’t feel like the most likely outcome is that Lawlar will earn that SS role.
Ben: I don’t think it makes too much of a difference for the 2025 infield, but it might shift Lawlar’s path to the bigs through third base or second depending on his continued development. The bigger question mark in that regard is whether or not Suarez can maintain the performance he posted in the second half of last year.
Kendall Graveman joins the team on a Major League deal. Thoughts, and do you think this is the last ML deal before opening day?
Spencer: I think it’s a fine addition to the bullpen with minimal downside. I was content with the bullpen before Graveman but I’m not upset to add some depth and experience to the crew. Yes I expect it is the final ML free agent deal for the team. But I think a trade or two could still happen. Monty or another reliever seem possible.
DBacksEurope: In all honesty, I don’t know Kendall Graveman. It seems he was a reliable reliever the past 3 years in the American League, but I don’t believe he’ll move the needle. Hopefully he can provide some stability in the 7th inning.
After last year’s debacle with Montgomery, I’m sure the Diamondbacks are pretty much set for opening day.
Makakilo: Two thoughts:
One. Normally concern would be high that he has not pitched since 2023. In this case, my confidence is high that he will return at 100%.
Two. His role is not yet decided. Perhaps he is competing with Justin Martinez, AJ Puk, and Kevin Ginkel for the closer position.
“We don’t necessarily base it [pitcher roles including closer, to start the season] off the [spring training] results, but sometimes [the way] we do it just depends on what the competition is and what it looked like in the moment. And we want to see guys make pitches, shape pitches, have mound presence. And we want to get to know the guys and the group that we have. I think the heartbeat and the mind has something to do with it as well. Can’t just throw anybody out there. It’s a very tough situation, and I think a few people are going to be strongly considered.” — Torey Lovullo, source MLBcom article.
1AZfan1: Mak makes an excellent point, as usual. Torey’s heartbeat quote is revealing toward the team’s view of the intangible qualities that a closer should have. Graveman has experience in closing ballgames. He actually has a better career Save% (Saves per Opportunity) than Puk and Ginkel and he has more career Saves than all of the other candidates. I’m curious to see if his physical skills are where they need to be, but the intangibles should be enough if called upon to be the closer.
Ben: It’s about as low-stakes a signing as you can get for a contending team and I think it lengthens the depth in the bullpen. He was probably a little lucky in 2023 – at least based on the gap between his ERA and xERA of 3.12 and 4.58 respectively, but if he can return to a pre-2023 walk rate of around 2.8, I could absolutely see him earning a spot on the staff for the middle innings.
What non-AZ Spring training storylines are you following, if any?
Spencer: The Columbus Crew play their first 2025 game this weekend. And the Blue Jackets are in the playoff race in the NHL. But baseball wise? Which Dodgers arms make the team intrigues me. The Cubs are a theoretically intriguing team that I expect may not live up the hype. There are many stories around baseball that I will follow through news articles.
DBacksEurope: Not any at all. It’s always exciting to see familiar faces in different uniforms, that’s what I sometimes look at, like Goldy playing in the Yankee pinstripes.
Makakilo: In November the Diamondbacks claimed Seth Martinez from the Astros. In February, the Marlins claimed Seth Martinez from the Diamondbacks. Because I anticipated that he would pitch better on the Diamondbacks for Diamondbacks’ specific reasons, I will follow whether he pitches better for the Marlins.
1AZfan1: I’m watching any baseball I have the opportunity to after the long winter. I’m not really following any storylines, but I’m happy to be able to turn on the TV if I have a few minutes and be able to watch baseball again.
Ben: In non-baseball terms, I’ll be raptly watching the close of the college basketball regular season and the beginning of the NCAA tournament in a couple weeks. On the baseball side, I’m watching to see which of the next wave of prospects will be making the Opening Day roster for their respective teams.
Brag about yourself. What’s something you’ve done since the end of last season that you’re proud of, big or small?
DBacksEurope: Not caring about politics. The world is rotten, empathy is something rare nowadays and politicians only think about themselves. Maybe you think I am talking about American politics, but I am more disappointed in European politics (Trump is totally right in some important things regarding Europe). Example: the current secretary general of NATO is calling everyone to arms, but as prime minister of The Netherlands the past 10 years he personally cut in defence everywhere. Writing this, it obviously still interests me, but just for entertainment purposes, I shrug with every “shocking” news item. Pretty proud about it, which is actually very sad.
Makakilo: Helped run a pickleball tournament. Created excel spreadsheet to make pairings and tally results. As tournament being played, put results into my laptop, so spreadsheet could instantly tally wins and points scored for every team. With a thick marker, posted pairings and results on big poster board.
Also, played in two pickleball tournaments and have a wonderful pickleball partner!
1AZfan1: Survived 3 weeks in Rhode Island during a Polar Vortex. How do you guys in the midwest and northeast do this every year?!
Ben: I started a new job at the end of October that’s been going well but is very daunting! If people have suggestions or advice on how to feel more confident when you’re new at a company, I am all ears!