plus, would our writers pull a Katy Perry?
You can only pick one: Pitching, Offense, or Defense. Who is to blame for this past week?
Spencer: I’m inclined to say defense but that speaks more to a mindset issue than actual ability. I think it’s really just unlucky circumstances and some sloppy mental games.
Makakilo: In the last 7 games (18-25 April)…
Offense was not to blame: Minimum runs was 2, median runs was 4, max runs was 11. Baserunners per game was great (better than last season). The only slight weakness was a drop in baserunners who score via non-homers.
Defense: Six errors put extra workload on pitchers and could be nearly the most in the Majors. Mitigation was that 8 double plays could be nearly the most in the Majors.
Pitching shoulders most of the blame. In five of the seven games, the pitching (and defense) allowed between 6 and 13 runs (total of earned and unearned runs).
Addendum: Looking at pitching in those same 7 games (custom date range, data from FanGraphs):
59.9 LOB ranked 30th. This needs to change!
5.05 ERA ranked 28th
3.81 FIP ranked 15th
3.65 xFIP ranked 13th
2.73 BB9 ranked 5th
9.00 K9 ranked 12th
0.6 fWAR ranked 16th
DBacksEurope: It’s hard to blame the offence when you’re pitching like the Diamondbacks are. I do feel that pitching is a bit like the goalkeeper in soccer; it hurts more when the pitcher gives up a run than when the batter squanders an RBI opportunity. It is easier to point at the pitcher. But, yeah, we are amongst league leaders in runs per game and giving up runs per game, so hard to get to a different conclusion than the pitching.
Preston: Gotta be the pitching. Unless it isn’t.
I was all set to say pitching, and then I went and looked at Fangraphs. Would it interest people to know that, by fWAR, the Diamondbacks have the best pitching staff over the last week? Great ERA and FIP, solid strikeout rate, sixth best walk rate. So why the problems? They’ve stranded just 60.5% of baserunners, second-worst but largely attributable to luck.
So it’s not the pitching. On the other hand, the batting has a wRC+ of 84, tenth worst. Defense rates just slightly below-average. But even the offense is largely due to luck, as they’ve had the fifth-worst BABIP.
And they scored more runs and they allowed earned runs. I think this week (so far, writing on Saturday before the game) can be chalked up to a lot of things going wrong at once.
[Added Sunday morning]
One game dropped the Diamondbacks’ pitching from top to middle of the pack in terms of fWAR over the past week. Still the 10th in FIP and 14th in ERA over the past week. Meanwhile, even with Geno’s quadruple blasts, team wRC+ over the past week is 92, 17th in the league. But the .219 BABIP is the worst.
Fans have the luxury of overreacting to weeks like this. Hazen won’t. Things are still (mostly) fine. Gallen and Gurriel need to get going. But we had a 120 wRC+ heading into this week despite missing Marte for a lot of that, and Suarez and Gurriel being awful. Unsustainable. We had an ERA of 4.65 (4th worst) heading into this week. xFIP was over a run lower, at 3.61. Essentially, the pitching corrected to expected levels, but the offense went from a .283 BABIP to a .219 BABIP.
Jim: Pitching, and the bullpen in particular. Going into Sunday, its ERA is now 24th in the league at 4.69, and the “It’s just Joe Mantiply” excuse no longer holds water. But you do have to wonder. Our best relievers are Shelby Miller and Justin Martinez. Miller has faced four batters since April 20. Martinez seven since April 17. It all feels like we haven’t been using our best. It’s not helped by the starters, who have just two quality starts in the last ten games. That puts a lot of pressure on the relievers.
Ben: I’m inclined to say pitching has been the biggest obstacle over the past week. Preston’s point notwithstanding, the team has lost shootouts (a la the Windy Wrigley fiasco) and pitching duels (like Eduardo Rodriguez’s solid game ahead of a bullpen blowup). I’m frustrated by the lack of transparency on what exactly is happening with Puk and to a lesser extent with Justin Martinez. If Martinez is genuinely hurt and thus unavailable, it’s a drag on the team to have him on the active roster rather than on the IL to allow another reliever to take their place. I’m all for player safety, but it’s been 10 days since Puk’s last appearance and five since the last update on his status.
Dano: It’s gotta be the pitching, and the bullpen specifically. Our starters have settled down for the most part (/cue sideeye at Zac Gallen), but our relievers can’t seem to hold a lead with any real reliability.
What in the world is wrong with the middle of our line up, and is there anything we can do to fix it?
Spencer: Currently? We don’t have Lawlar in there? I understand wanting him to be fully ready and service time manipulation, but are we really gonna roll with Suarez (lmfao man what a difference a day makes huh?) and Gurriel as auto outs during the gauntlet that is the next few series?!
DBacksEurope: My opinion is that we all knew that Suarez and Gurriel were going to be terribly and frustratingly streaky. We sat Suarez out last year too. I think we should do the same now and see where to take it up from June depending on how the team performs. Grichuk could get more reps in left, Lawlar could take reps at third. Moreno is a different story, we will see.
Makakilo: Recently, the 4/5/6 batters have been Naylor, Gurriel Jr, and Suarez. Two observations:
- Looking at RBIs, their 17/14/15 RBIs rank third, fourth, and fifth highest (behind Carrol with 23 and Perdomo with 19). That looks good.
- Looking at their 142/41/91 OPS+, it seems that Gurriel Jr. is in a batting slump. His OPS fell from .757 last season, to .514 this season, to .420 in the last 7 days.
My bold and daring fix would be to place Alek Thomas in the middle of the lineup and place Gurriel Jr. lower until he breaks out of his slump. Alek Thomas has 10% more RBIs per PA than Gurriel Jr.
Preston: Suarez and Gurriel have both shown signs of progress, but I’d like to see the order shuffled, as mentioned above. Mix Thomas in there.
But Suarez is also one of the worst defenders in baseball. Gurriel has just been average. Is it time to focus on the defense? Tawa has shown promise and taken over at second base; could he move to third when Marte returns? Lawlar hasn’t gotten a lot of reps at third, but Blaze Alexander played the outfield yesterday. I’m not sold on any of these as solutions. I think waiting is the best option.
Jim: We have the major-league leader in home-runs. Everything is fine! Gurriel might be the one in most danger, because poor as Moreno has hit, he’s still better than Jose Herrera. We do have outfield options who could replace Gurriel.
Ben: It wouldn’t shock me if the team shifted Gurriel to a platoon role/spot start. He was excellent against lefties last year and he’s been quite good against them for his career. Unfortunately, he’s been atrocious to begin this year overall so a change might need to be made for the team’s sake. Moreno is the real sticking point. I personally would like to see Adrian Del Castillo back up to the big leagues to see what he can do, but I’m not yet convinced he’s a starting caliber catcher and Moreno still has too much potential to be relegated at all. At the same time, there’s a possibility he’s been a little unlucky so far this season as there’s a sizable difference between his expected stats and his actual ones all while he’s putting up good numbers on his walk and strikeout percentage. For now, we just have to wait and hope it’s an extended slump he’ll work his way through.
Dano: Suarez is streaky, Gurriel is streaky, Moreno is….I dunno, still a bit of a work in progress, I guess. Suarez was hot to start the season, then went ice cold, and now is (maybe?) heating up again? Gurriel has been ice cold since the start of the year, and well, he still kind of is. And Gabi? He seems like he knows what to do–be more patient, embrace what the pitcher and the defense is giving him, go the other way rather than trying to pull and slug the ball when the opportunity isn’t there. But he doesn’t seem to want to do that….he wants to be a power-hitting catcher a lot of the time right now, it seems like. And that’s not his game. So.
Do you think we are celebrating a Corbin Carroll MVP award at the end of the season? Why or why not? And it’s too early is a cop out!
Spencer: No because I put money on it midwinter and I’m not lucky enough to get that big payout.
DBacksEurope: Yes. Carroll’s a beast.
Makakilo: Yes. Three points (data from Baseball Savant):
- Corbin Carroll ranked among best batters in Majors: .667 SLG ranked #6, .677 xSLG ranked #4, .447 wOBA ranked #6, .445 xwOBA ranked #6.
- Corbin Carroll ranked among best baserunners in Majors: His 2 Baserunning Runs ranked #2.
- Corbin Carroll’s Fielding Runs, although ranked below Perdomo and Moreno, ranked high (#77 in Majors).
Preston: If we do, it’ll probably have to be as an unlikely division winner. So I doubt it. Voters will elect Ohtani, again, unless he completely flops.
Jim: Yeah, it’s Ohtani’s to lose. Never bet against him. Especially if you are his interpreter.
Ben: I mean, if he keeps playing like he is today (leadoff triple plus an incredible catch and outfield assist at the plate), he’ll certainly be in the conversation. Ironically, for all the attention around Ohtani, he doesn’t appear in any of the major category leaderboards in the National League – but Carroll does, including multiple bWAR categories, OPS, runs scored, and total bases. At the moment, it would look more like a race between Tatis, Jung Hoo Lee, and Carroll. But it’s so early in the season to be almost meaningless.
Dano: I’d like to say yes on this, but I think Jim and Preston are correct….it’s Ohtani’s to lose.
Luis Arraez had a vicious collision at first base. Is it time for MLB to adopt the double base used in other leagues?
Spencer: I’m all for safety, so sure if it’ll work.
Makakilo: It’s not time yet. I don’t know whether it would need to be negotiated with the players union. And the following statement by Rob Manfred indicates he might not favor it.
“We want to be as soft as possible. Whenever we see a guy get hurt on a rare collision, we instantly have to make a new rule to benefit that one guy.” – Rob Manfred, October 2018
DBacksEurope: Dubón should be suspended for some time for the way he made that play. He lifted his arm into a running Arraez and was moving backwards onto that first base! Totally not regarding the other player’s health.
Preston: It’s going to happen soon, I’m sure. And there’s no reason not to do it. Now that college baseball has it in many conferences, players will reach the pros used to it. It’s effective and smart. Should have been done years ago.
Jim: We need to abandon base-running entirely, because there are just too many injuries. After a ball is hit, MLB’s computers should be used to determine if the runner would have reached base, and if so, which one. The batter can then walk, at a safe pace, to that base.
Ben: I’m fine with it if it’ll reduce injuries to baserunners or position players that are covering first base. It might look a little silly at first, but we said the same thing about the larger bases at the beginning of the 2023 season and those have completely faded into the background.
Dano: I actually don’t know what the “double base” thing is or how it would affect the game. So I suppose I’m agnostic on this, beyond thinking “sure, why not?” if it will actually make the game safer and won’t introduce something incredibly stupid into the game at the major league level.
If you ever had the chance, would you go to space?
Spencer: Undoubtedly. But I’ve pissed family members off for years saying I’d colonize another planet without a second thought before.
Makakilo: Yes! I’ll give a shoutout to the AZ Snake Pit, and I’ll play the first pickleball game in space! It would be fun to perform a science experiment. Imagine looking down on the earth! And how bright are the stars from space?!
And yet I’d say no to colonizing Mars or the moon because it would likely be a one-way trip.
DBacksEurope: It is not something I get excited about. I’m 44 now, so I’m just trying to enjoy things here as much as I can. I hate news about those space tourists by the way, with the super rich showing off they have too much money.
Preston: Nope.
Jim: Alien. Event Horizon. Lifeforce. Europa Report. Sunshine. Life. If movies have taught me anything (except that camping is a death sentence), it’s that nothing good ever comes of space travel. I’m good.
Ben: I think it would depend on how we’re defining the trip. If it’s a quick trip to “space” a la the recent Blue Origin flight, then I’d say no. I’d also be reluctant to make any one-way travel like colonizing Mars or another planet unless there was some kind of impending catastrophe aimed at the Earth. But give me the opportunity to orbit the Earth or go to the Moon, and I’m totally there – even if my wife would like to veto such an idea.
Dano: Hell yes, without question. If it was going to be a long term trip, though, I would have to be allowed to bring the cats.