Spring Training : Who is Ready to Step Up?

Let’s start with this idea: If a player is ready to step up, it will show in spring training.

You could validly point out limitations of small sample sizes, some spring training players are AAA, and the importance of in-person observation. On the other hand, performing well in spring training reflects excellent offseason preparation and performance consistency in all circumstances.

Let’s look at position players who could step up if a starter is injured. Let’s assume each player has a primary position that they could best step into (other positions would hurt the team defensively). This assumption has two exceptions. One exception is Garrett Hampson. Based on recent stats (DRS and OAA), he is an above average defender at second base, shortstop, and center field (DRS from The Fielding Bible, and OAA from Baseball Savant).

The other exception is that with a primary position of center field, Jorge Barrosa and Cristian Pache could instead defend left or right field. They are above average defenders in the outfield.

Some players’ OBP showed them as ready to step up.

Based on early spring training batting performance (OBP through 5 March), who was ready to step into each position in case of injury?

If they had an OBP of at least .350 with at least 10 PAs, my view is they could at least temporarily step into their primary position. Let’s assume they could play in any outfield position. The following table shows the players who are ready to step up.

Gino Groover will likely be ready to step-up within the next year.

“FanGraphs shows Gino Groover as the fifth best prospect, but a broken wrist slowed him last season, and his highest level was AA. Nevertheless, it is not impossible.” — Makakilo

Update: Through 10 March (28 PAs), Garrett Hampson’s OBP fell from .353 on 5 March to .321 on 10 March. Nevertheless, he is ready to step into several positions.

Two positions need discussion.

Shortstop

Although deciding roles for the pitchers is likely the toughest decision to start the season, there is another tough decision. In the context that the Diamondbacks are competing for the playoffs, If Geraldo Perdomo suffers an injury, who will step up to play shortstop?

In spring training, Garrett Hampson showed he is ready to play shortstop. Let’s consider three alternatives:

The elepant in the room: Jordan Lawlar is ranked as the best Diamondbacks prospect and a top-100 in baseball. Last season in the minors, injuries limited his playing time (23 regular season games plus 27 games in the Dominican Winter games where his batting was disappointing). My preference is for him to continue developing in the minors.
In January, the Diamondbacks acquired Grae Kessinger. His OBP in spring training was below .350, which was below my threshold for readiness. He is not yet ready.
Blaze Alexander will likely miss most of March with an oblique strain. When he returns, based on last season’s OAA, my view is his best position is second base or third base.

An additional factor is that Garrett Hampson is an above average defender at three positions (short stop, second base, and center field), which would add roster flexibility. All things considered, Garrett Hampson is most likely to step up to play shortstop. Neverthless, there are other excellent candidates.

First Base

In spring training, three players showed they are ready: Tristin English, Tim Tawa, and Trey Mancini. Let’s consider an alternative:

Pavin Smith’s .278 OBP was below my demarcation line for readiness. Because last season for Pavin Smith, spring training OBP (.333) was a good predictor for season OBP (.348), this season his batting may decline. On the other hand, in October, this AZ Snake Pit article explored the possibility of Pavin Smith playing first base. His strengths:

He has more home runs per plate appearance than Christian Walker.
He could replace a conservative estimate of Christian Walker’s WAR (2.6 WAR).
His increased run expectancy per plate appearance was higher than any other Diamondback except Adrian Del Castillo (and much higher than Christian Walker).

Trey Mancini is a cancer survivor, took last season off, and is making a serious effort to successfully comeback. For details, see this MLBTR article.

Tim Tawa will likely be a star, but is the youngest player and still developing. In case of injury, he may be the most ready of the group, with the potential to continue to improve.

“Let’s compare Tim Tawa to three [for this article, I added a row for Trey Mancini] of the Diamondbacks’ first base players. Tim Tawa is the youngest. More importantly, how does his batting compare to the other three at the same age and level? In the following table, the comparison shows that Tim Tawa has potential to be better than Tristin English, Pavin Smith and perhaps better than Josh Naylor. Caveats are that ages were not matched exactly and Naylor data is at the MLB level.” — Makakilo

Summary.

The Diamondbacks have at least one player ready to step up at each position (pitchers were not considered in this article).

There are interesting possibilities for who would be chosen to step up at shortstop and first base.