There’s more to defense than Gold Gloves. Let’s do a deeper dive into the numbers.
As mentioned earlier in the week, the D-backs had more players nominated for Gold Gloves than anyone else: five at all, including three infielder and two outfielders. That’s a sharp uptick on the previous season. But does that mean their defense overall was better than in 2023? Let’s crunch the numbers across a broad range of metrics – measuring defense being what it is – and see if we can come to any conclusions. In all these categories, the first number is last year’s figure, and the second represents this season’s number.
Errors: 56 vs. 62
There’s not much difference there – about one extra error per month. Additionally, the numbers for each position were typically plus or minus one from the tally the previous year. The exceptions were at third-base (9 vs. 12), left-field (0 vs. 5) and right field (4 vs. 2). The middle of those is most striking: in 2023, Lourdes Gurriel Jr played 778 error-free innings, and notched eight assists, equal fifth in the majors. This year, he had more E’s (5) than assists (4), and those five gaffes were basically the difference in the team’s totals: two were fielding errors, and three came on throws. On the plus side, the last was July 14. Below you can find all five. Viewers of a nervous disposition might want to look away now.
Unearned runs: 47 vs. 47
Not all unearned runs are a result of errors. If a game goes extra, the Manfred Man is unearned. So just sticking to regulation, there were six Arizona losses – including two in the second half of September – where the margin of defeat was the same as the number of unearned runs they allowed. There was also the one on May 26, where the D-backs lost 3-1 to Miami. All three runs were unearned, scoring in the seventh subsequent to this Kevin Newman error. If those Marlins had not crossed home, the Diamondbacks might have won the game, and in the final analysis, that extra win could have propelled them into the post-season. I’m reminded of the poem which ends, “…and all for the want of a horseshoe nail.”
Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average: 43 vs. -9
A large drop here, sending the team diving from third in the majors all the way down to twentieth. The bulk of the difference can be attributed to a handful of players: Gurriel (16 vs. 6), Gabriel Moreno (14 vs. 5) and, in particular Alek Thomas. You think most of the difference for the last-named would be due to his much-reduced playing time. But Rtot dumped him from +10 to -6. The metric also didn’t think much of his colleagues in the outfield either, Jake McCarthy (-9) and Corbin Carroll (-11) being seen as worse than Alek, albeit in considerably more innings. McCarthy’s drop from +9, an overall loss of eighteen runs, was the biggest by any player, just ahead of Carroll’s change of minus sixteen.
BIS Defensive Runs Saved: 46 vs. 13
A similar decrease here, though a little lower in magnitude. Moreno’s value was cut in half (20 vs. 10) and Gurriel had an even larger drop (14 vs. 3). However, it wasn’t all bad news on the individual level. Ketel Marte improved significantly (2 vs. 10) and Geraldo Perdomo did better still (-2 vs. +10), while Kevin Newman posted a +10 and bolstered his side of the infield nicely. One interesting stat here is RGood: runs above average on plays which were exceptional contributions or obvious misplays. Last year, Arizona was at +6, all of which was due to Moreno’s individual figure In 2024, they were a flat zero, with Eugenio Suarez’s -3 the lowest figure for a D-back.
Ultimate Zone Rating: 33.7 vs. 27.3
Continuing the trend of the AZ defense slipping, albeit to a smaller extent. [UZR doesn’t cover catchers, so Moreno, etc. are not included] While their ranking still dropped, they only went from 2nd to 5th, still a good showing. UZR splits a player by position too, which can lead to some quirky results. Corbin Carroll in right was the team’s “best” fielder relative to his position, with a UZR of +8.8. Yay! However, he was also the team’s WORST fielder, in center where he was -5.6. A better illustration of the volatility of defensive metrics, especially the thinner you slice them, is hard to imagine. Arm and Range were the major factors in the drop; Error Runs actually improved, despite the slight increase in raw errors.
Defensive Runs Above Average: 28.5 vs. 20.2
Def is an interesting stat, because it incorporates a positional adjustment. For example, in UZR, a +10 in left is relative to other left fielders, and is less valuable than a +10 at shortstop. In Def, the number takes position into account: it’s why Christian Walker was the only NL 1B in positive territory. Gabriel Moreno posted Arizona’s highest Def in both years (11.8 vs. 9.9), while the dubious honor of worst this year going to Blaze Alexander at short (-5.4). Though with players split by position here too, Blaze did better at second (+1.6) and even third (+1.0). I also note the sharp improvement by Ketel Marte, from +1.0 to +7.1, which also passes the eye test: he has looked palpably better at second this year.
What? You want conclusions?
Defensive metrics are like, um, a certain body part – the part often compared to opinions. Everybody’s got one, and nobody wants to look at the other guy’s. But across the board here, the numbers almost all agree that Arizona’s defense took a step back, after being near the very top of the board in 2023. The size of the step is still open to debate, with the 2024 defense ranging from very good to average. Whether the drop will persist into next year, I don’t know. As mentioned, these numbers are as volatile as reliever performance: this could just be a random variation. But I know Torey Lovullo is aware of the importance of defense, and I’d not be surprised to see a special focus on it, come next spring training.