How do the recent contract signings affect the D-Backs?
Now that we’re officially past the Winter Meetings and the “Hot Stove” has officially been lit with the ludicrous 15 years/$765 million signing by Juan Soto, I thought it might be worthwhile to do another reset for where the D-Backs stand. At this point, it’s extremely straightforward given that they are one of many teams that have made no significant moves or signings to this point in the offseason. Their needs remain the same as they did when the offseason began. Namely, they are still looking to source offense that can buoy the loss of Randal Grichuk, Joc Pederson, and Christian Walker; clarify the starting rotation; and, of course, acquire some additional bullpen depth. They have been attached to plenty of rumors – including a wild Jordan Montgomery-Cody Bellinger swap – but so far have not realized any of that speculation. I suspect that situation will change now that some of the top free agents are beginning to come off the proverbial board and suitor teams become increasingly desperate. In my article last week, I posed three questions for the Winter Meetings: What is the market for Jordan Montgomery? How do teams pivot from Juan Soto? Which relievers are available? We don’t have complete answers to any of those questions, but we at least have more information than we did at this time last week.
Starting pitching is at a premium
While I was writing that column last week, Blake Snell’s five year/$182 million signing was one of the few for starting pitching that had already happened. In the interim, we saw two more starting pitching dominos fall in Max Fried to the Yankees (eight years/$218 million) and Nathan Eovaldi with the Rangers (three years/$75 million). The combination of years and money is particularly staggering for those two, but it also puts the D-Backs in the enviable position of being able to dictate the market to some extent on the slight surplus the team has in starting pitching talent. Montgomery remains the most likely starter to be shipped off and while his 2024 was still nightmarish compared to the two recent signees (or for anyone really), his career numbers are a bit more normalized. And given that his option for next year is still cheaper than either of them, it allows the D-Backs to sell trade partners on the potential cost savings for a backend starter. There are still several contending clubs that fit that bill including the Orioles and Mets who may be willing to take the risk on a veteran like Montgomery if the return were relatively light back to the D-Backs. In my opinion, the decision depends to some extent on how the team views some of its stable of younger pitchers who are certainly looking for an opportunity to crack into the rotation.
Teams clearly have backup plans
The frenzied bidding war around Soto took me and many others by surprise – including Steve Cohen himself – but it also required clubs to develop some backup plans given the unique set of circumstances around him. In a twisted way, the Yankees are in a stronger position having lost out on Soto because it gives them the latitude to sign Fried, perhaps Walker, and at least two other players for the same price tag. Similarly, the other primary Soto suitors like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Giants had already begun their pivots before he had already signed with the Willy Adames deal to San Francisco being announced beforehand. There are plenty of outfielders still available for those suitor franchises like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander, but the D-Backs could also leverage their outfield logjam to strengthen another roster need like the bullpen in exchange.
Relief pitchers aren’t a priority – yet
It is hard to believe, but arguably the biggest relief pitcher to be signed so far is Aroldis Chapman with the Red Sox. There are several high profile relievers that remain unsigned including Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, and Jeff Hoffman. Like nearly every contending club, the D-Backs could desperately use additional bullpen depth given the epidemic of pitching injuries and the intense variability relief pitchers experience on a year to year basis. This is one area where the D-Backs may dip into the free agent pool although it might be more in the middle of the distribution rather than the top end. That might be closer to someone like David Robertson ($7 million expected) or Jeff Hoffman ($6.2 million AAV expected) rather than Tanner Scott, but those would still be upgrades over the inconsistent dumpster fire the team had in 2024.