What are some first-thought takeaways from a good but disappointing season?
The Diamondbacks are barely 72 hours into their offseason and are already making moves with the (somewhat) surprising dismissal of pitching staffers Brent Strom, Mike Fetters, and Dan Carlson earlier today. As Jim detailed, it’s not particularly difficult to see why the change was necessary between the poor pitching performance this year that may very well have cost them a playoff appearance and the unacceptable downward trend in the pitching staff’s performance across Strom’s tenure. I remain unconvinced that coaches have the kind of direct impact that we sometimes assume they do, but this feels more akin to the saying, “You can’t fire the team” rather than anything else. It will be interesting speculating on his replacement, but that’s a relatively minor concern compared to some of the more glaring questions the D-Backs must answer – headlined by Christian Walker’s free agency. This free agency market will be defined – for better or worse – by Juan Soto, but even that is still weeks away from beginning with the playoffs just starting. Instead, I would rather focus on a few takeaways in no particular order on the still shocking and disappointing fact that the D-Backs failed to reach the playoffs.
Slow Start Doom
Much ado has been made regarding the poor September the D-Backs suffered as they posted a middling 13-13 record and narrowly missed the playoffs because of tiebreaks – including by yours truly as recently as last week with some possible remedies. But in truth, the team bookended their season with poor performing months and the combination was simply too much to overcome with three excellent months in the middle. It’s easy to focus on the September performances because of their relative proximity to the playoffs, but the games and wins obviously matter just as much in April and May as they do in August and September. No, the team’s struggles started immediately in the first two full months of the season when they went a miserable 22-31 and quickly found themselves in the bottom-third of the National League and fourth place in the division. Ironically, it wasn’t even the pitching staff that was holding the team back either – although they certainly weren’t contributing much either with a 4.04 and 4.79 ERA for March/April and May respectively. The offense that would end the season as one of the best in the majors was held to a slightly above average .250/.329/.395 slash line in March/April and a miserable .231/.292/.364 slash line in May. They were held to fewer than 100 runs scored in a month for the only time all season and one of just 19 such months in franchise history.
There’s certainly something to be said for the fact that the team wasn’t whole at this point in the season, especially on the pitching side, as Jordan Montgomery was still working his way to speed while Merrill Kelly, Paul Sewald, and Zac Gallen all spent time on the IL for various stints. But that doesn’t fully excuse the team’s poor performance as we are constantly reminded of the savage effects injuries can have on a team in literally every season and in every sport. More than anything, there were several individual batters that were having particularly bad months as Corbin Carroll bottomed out in March/April with an atrocious .193/.292/.246 slash line. Newcomer Eugenio Suarez meanwhile bottomed out his offensive production in May with a similarly ugly .172/.229/.276 slash line before going on an incredible run from the beginning of July to the end of the season. It’s telling that there were only four above-average hitters by sOPS+ on the team for the entirety of May while there were eight such hitters in the team’s best offensive month of July. While it’s incredibly obvious, if the team wants to avoid a similar postseason fate next year, it would behoove them to at least not allow themselves to dig such a large hole so early in the year.
Montgomery Signing
Diamondbacks’ owner Ken Kendrick made some headlines this week for taking responsibility for signing Jordan Montgomery and saying that it was a main reason why the team didn’t make the playoffs. I have to respectfully and forcefully disagree. First, I think it should unequivocally be said that Kendrick, Mike Hazen, and the front office did exactly what we as fans of the team and baseball always want: they invested in the team. They took a critical look at the fun, but flawed, 2023 roster and identified areas in which they could dramatically improve. That instinct is what led to trading for Suarez, signing Eduardo Rodriguez, and yes, even Montgomery himself. It’s easy to see why that last one happened too as Montgomery had posted several solid years in New York and St Louis while providing much-needed durability, stability, and leadership for a team that still skews quite young. Every free agent signing or trade acquisition is a gamble – even if that gamble is based on previous information or performance. Just because the gamble doesn’t work out doesn’t mean that the gamble itself was a bad decision. And it certainly doesn’t indicate that the gamble was the reason the team didn’t make it to the playoffs. They failed to reach the playoffs because they couldn’t find a single additional win all season – including blowing an eight-run lead to the Brewers that I got to witness in-person – but which also includes countless other examples. I sincerely hope that Kendrick and the front office do not take the wrong lesson from Montgomery’s signing and continue to invest in the on-field product in whatever capacity they can.