What, if any, appetite is there for a trade?
After one of the most miraculous, unexpected runs to the World Series in 2023, the Diamondback ownership and front office did what every fanbase wishes: they identified the team’s inherent limitations and invested to address them. That effort was multipronged, but signing Jordan Montgomery to a one-year, $25 million contract immediately before Opening Day was arguably the splashiest. The move added even more depth to a rotation that looked formidable (on paper at least) with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Instead, that paper rotation never fully materialized and Montgomery himself endured such a nightmarish season that it prompted the owner to disavow him and Montgomery to take the no-brainer move and exercise the player option on his contract. Combining that decision with Mike Hazen also exercising their club option on Kelly, the entire rotation will get another shot at redemption in 2025 barring any additional surprises between now and Opening Day. However, given the poor results in 2024 and the clear animosity between the player and the front office, it’s natural to speculate on whether a trade partner could be found. In my mind, there are four main factors on which franchises might be good fits: a need for starting pitching, payroll flexibility, an open contention window, and some kind of prospect capital to trade in return. Those factors whittle the competition down significantly and the following three teams seem to be some of the top contenders in my opinion.
New York Mets
The Mets seem to personify the newest version of baseball franchises: they are owned by a billionaire who is unafraid to spend lavishly on free agents and are in a large enough market to support that spending. While the Mets will certainly be in on the two biggest free agent sluggers this offseason in Pete Alonso and Juan Soto, they are also desperate for pitching now that three-fifths of their 2024 rotation have departed via free agency. They also have arguably the most amount of payroll flexibility in the league dependent on their pursuit of multiple high-end free agents including Corbin Burnes. Additionally, after a surprise run to the NLCS this year, the fans are primed for an aggressive approach to free agency and a continuation of their competitive window as a result. Their biggest weakness in this exercise though is their middling farm system ranking, which reduces the likelihood of David Stearns trading from it. Even still, I could envision a scenario in which Hazen pays down part of the salary in exchange for a flyer like Dom Hamel – a 25 year old sitting in AAA who is Rule 5-eligible and has yet to establish a role either as a reliever or starter.
Baltimore Orioles
On the other end of the spectrum, the Orioles have finally emerged from half a decade of basement dwelling to win the most games in the American League over the last two seasons – just to win a whopping zero postseason games in that span. The fanbase is understandably frustrated by the lack of postseason success and will be looking to see how their new owners approach their first offseason, but their window of contention couldn’t be much more open than it is with a talented nucleus of position players and oodles of talent in the farm system. However, to this point, Mike Elias has not really dipped into the free agent market, but with that new ownership fully taking over and consecutive painful playoff exits, that mindset might be starting to shift. Right now, Spotrac estimates a total payroll of $95 million which would land the Birds in the lower half of the league despite legitimate World Series aspirations. They will need quite a bit of that payroll flexibility if they hope to capitalize on those aspirations as their rotation faces similar questions as the Mets above following Burnes’ departure in free agency and a multitude of injuries elsewhere. Finally, those oodles of young talent are particularly concentrated in the infield and the team will need to make some tough decisions on how their holdover veterans will fit into that picture. This pairing could go in two different directions: one in which the teams swap veterans – someone like Ramon Urias or Ryan Mountcastle – or the Diamondbacks take on more of a “flyer” like Alex Pham, a 24 year old Rule 5-eligible starter who has the possibility of being converted to the bullpen if his feel for his secondary pitches doesn’t develop enough.
Detroit Tigers
Lastly, we have another franchise beginning to emerge from a deep rebuild that is looking to take the next step in an opening window contention. Much like the Orioles, they have slashed payrolls to a minimum while building up an equally impressive farm system that can either be used as capital to improve the team imminently or graduate to the majors themselves. Similarly, the fanbase is eager to see the team and the front office turn the page on a long and painful rebuild after a feel-good run to the division series was unceremoniously cut short by the Guardians this postseason. While they don’t have quite the same logjam that the O’s have in the field, their rotation has even more questions than Baltimore following Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal at the top. They actually also come in just under the Baltimore payroll as well, giving them plenty of flexibility to pursue free agents or pay someone like Montgomery to rehabilitate his portfolio. In terms of a return, the Tigers might be willing to part with someone like Eric Silva, a 22 year old reliever in AA that they just acquired from the Giants in exchange for Mark Canha.
Again, I find it unlikely that Montgomery will be traded. Even with all of the negative aspects swirling around him, he’s a proven veteran with plenty of postseason experience and success who will be supremely motivated to prove that 2024 was an aberration. Moreover, the team would likely need to pay a substantial portion of his salary to entice any team to fork over any prospect of value and that has not been a theme of this front office given the relatively small market they inhabit. But I’ve been surprised by Hazen before and if an opportunity arises to improve the team for both the short- and long-term, it would be foolish not to at least consider the offer.