Where does the homegrown pitching depth stand at this point?
As we soak up the last bits of baseball before the long, hard winter with the baseball equivalent of choosing between the proverbial rock and a hard place, the D-Backs and their fans must continue to grapple with how agonizingly close they were to qualifying for the postseason. Of course, as I’ve already written about previously, there’s a lot of blame that can be laid at the feet of the woeful pitching performances the team received throughout the season. It’s certainly not the only reason why one of the league’s best-scoring offenses was left outside of the playoff tournament, but it certainly contributed mightily – especially late in the season when the starters turned in a 4.75 ERA and 1.362 WHIP while the relievers weren’t much better, posting a 6.11 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in the month of September. And while the front office and ownership did exactly what fans beg them to do – namely, spend money on free agents to shore up weak points in the roster – the free agents from last offseason have not yet lived up to their lofty billings. There were certainly some extenuating circumstances to their struggles and the pitchers’ lackluster results as injuries prevented the preseason rotation of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, and Brandon Pfaadt from ever actually all being in the rotation at the same time.
Thankfully, Mike Hazen and his staff have managed to collect some solid depth pieces that were able to plug in the holes left either by injury or by poor performance to some extent. In fact, the D-Backs had nine different pitchers make four or more starts over the course of the season – only three of which (Gallen, Kelly, and Yilber Diaz) were above average by ERA+. That’s pretty close to the historical average for the D-Backs over the last five seasons and wasn’t even that out of the ordinary within the National League this season as the Dodgers relied on a whopping 12 such pitchers to make it through the season. While the days of a five-man rotation working through an entire season are long gone and I sincerely hope the D-Backs don’t have to deal with the level of injury they did this year, I thought it might be worthwhile to check in on some of the depth pieces the team has at the beginning of the offseason.
Ryne Nelson
It’s fair to be somewhat surprised or miffed at Nelson’s inclusion in the “depth” category rather than in the rotation as described above. There is certainly a robust debate to be had on whether or not Montgomery or Nelson deserve to be in the rotation over the other (assuming the club picks up Kelly’s option). However, while Nelson’s emergence this season was one of the few bright spots on the team’s pitching development, Montgomery still has a much longer track record of success and the team has too much invested in the veteran to keep him in the bullpen where he also struggled to a 4.85 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in four games. Regardless, I expect that Nelson will be back in the rotation by the end of next season and both the team and rotation will be the stronger for it.
Yilber Diaz
One of the few pitchers in the above list that had an above-average ERA+ this season, the team’s sixth-ranked prospect certainly made a name for himself this year and has cemented himself as a player to watch closely moving forward. He was mostly able to do that with improved command as his walk rate and strikeout rate moved in opposite, encouraging directions over his three years of professional ball. Simultaneously, he’s tweaked his arsenal to rely more heavily on a slider that completely fools hitters while maintaining a fastball that nearly hits triple digits. He still has to prove that he can be consistent at the major league level as he has just four starts under his belt with the big league club, but given that he is Rule-5 eligible this offseason, I would be shocked if he isn’t protected and given at least a few opportunities to start at some point in the season.
Slade Cecconi
In an inverse situation to Ryne Nelson above, Slade Cecconi struggled when given an opportunity to make the leap into the team’s rotational plans. After showing some real promise last season with the big league club by posting a 4.33 ERA and 1.148 WHIP across four starts and seven total games, he was able to build on that success in Reno this year by turning in a 3.06 ERA and miniscule 1.021 WHIP. Those numbers are even more impressive given the outsized offense that tends to occur in the Pacific Coast League. Thus, it was completely fair to expect that the Florida native would be able to parlay that success into improved results at the major league level. Alas, those expectations were quickly dashed however after two early successful outings in April against the Giants and Mariners would prove to be the highlights of the season for him. In his next 11 starts between the beginning of May and the middle of July, he allowed an unsightly 7.00 ERA and failed to provide much length. The situation went from bad to worse after he was removed from the rotation in July and moved to the bullpen where he posted a 10.13 ERA and nearly allowed the same number of home runs (7) as he did in his entire time in the rotation (9). It’s an open question what Cecconi’s role will be with the team moving forward, but he is still just 25 and the former first-rounder still has potential to impact the team in a number of ways in 2025.