What’s gone wrong in September and how can the team fix it?
I have been told that starting pitchers generally prefer to finish their outing as strongly as possible even if the rest of the start did not go as planned i.e. if they struggled early but finished on a scoreless streak. That thought makes intuitive sense – it gives the pitcher positive momentum and takeaways for their next outing and demonstrates that the earlier part of their start was more of an aberration. I think that logic also holds true for teams and their respective seasons regardless of any possible postseason appearances the team might have. If you end on a hot streak, it can act as a springboard for the next season while a cold streak or poor performance can drag the team down for the playoffs or even linger into the following campaign. The baseball annals are replete with examples on both sides of that coin including the 2011 Red Sox having their playoff hopes dashed in the final game against the hapless Orioles when Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon blew the save and then allowed a walkoff single to Robert Andino. That game was the culmination of a disastrous month of September for the Red Sox in which the team went 7-20 and fell from having the best record in the American League at the beginning of the month to missing out on the playoffs entirely.
It also acted as a fulcrum point for both clubs as Boston would undergo a small reset in the offseason while the Orioles would enter another period of competitiveness including erstwhile Arizona skipper Buck Showalter. As an aside, the entire night’s drama was compiled into an excellent oral history by MLB for those that may not have been paying as close attention since the D-Backs had comfortably won the NL West that year. For the current iteration of the team, September has not been a particularly kind month. They came in as the top Wild Card team and still alive in the divisional race, but have not looked the same during an up and down month that sees them entering the final regular season series clinging to a one game lead for the final spot in the playoffs. That’s not to say they’ve played particularly poorly – they have a 12-11 record entering that final series against the Padres – but they’ve been maddeningly inconsistent throughout the month. Given that we are entering the final weekend of the
Pitching
This is a team sport and picking on or blaming just one unit would be both reductive and disingenuous. However, the team is in its current position because of an historically prolific offense that has been able to mask an injury-ravaged and inconsistent group of hurlers. Exasperatingly, the bullpen has experienced a particularly weak month with a 6.39 ERA and 1.569 WHIP – following up two strong months in which they posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in July and a 3.34 ERA/1.219 WHIP in August. Certainly, part of that poor performance is a result of exhaustion – both from the regular fatigue at the end of a marathon baseball season and the immense number of innings the relievers have had to cover this season. The latter is another function of the injuries the team has suffered, but that’s a poor excuse at this point in the season when so many other teams have endured pitching injuries. It’s also not limited to a couple ugly outliers either as Justin Martinez is enduring his worst stretch in his young career, Kevin Ginkel has completely fallen apart, and both Joe Mantiply and Ryan Thompson look like they’re completely gassed. One shudders to think about where the team would be without A.J. Puk who has preposterously given up just a single run in his tenure with the D-Backs to this point.
Sadly, the poor performance is not just limited to the bullpen either as Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly once again represent the only consistent contributors from the rotation with a 2.67 ERA/1.037 WHIP and 2.45 ERA/0.818 WHIP respectively between them. Conversely, Brandon Pfaadt has looked more like an outmatched 25 year old than the rotation stalwart he was last postseason, Ryne Nelson struggled in his two starts before landing back on the IL, and the two veteran offseason pickups in Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery both own ERAs north of 6 for the month. The situation does not exactly inspire confidence heading into the final series and possible playoffs to put it mildly.
Batting
While their pitching counterparts have struggled at times throughout the season, the Arizona offense has mostly been able to outmuscle or outperform the opposition – especially once the calendar hit June. But they’ve been astonishingly inconsistent too in this September swoon. They’ve had four separate games in which they’ve scored double digit runs as well as two shutouts and seven total games where they’ve scored two or fewer runs. Jake McCarthy has probably been the most visible member of the lineup to struggle – posting a measly .221/.256/.233 slash line for the month after two straight months in which he had been one of their best hitters. That shouldn’t overshadow the fact that others have struggled as well including Joc Pederson and Geraldo Perdomo who are both desperately needed for any kind of postseason push.