What are Mike Hazen’s options for filling Walker’s shoes?
As the Diamondbacks-less playoffs continue to march on, one of the few advantages left to those teams that are waiting at home is a jumpstart on evaluating their roster holes and pending free agents. For the D-Backs, there is one pending free agent that stands above any other: Christian Walker. Since arriving in the desert via a waiver claim (his third in a month) just before Opening Day 2017 and taking over the starting first baseman role two years later from Arizona legend Paul Goldschmidt, the Pennsylvania native has cemented himself as a cornerstone of this current window of contention. He currently ranks 11th on the franchise leaders by bWAR and pretty definitively sits as the second-best first baseman the team has had to this point. Within the league, his .464 SLG ranks 12th among qualified first basemen over the last five years and he’s balanced that with outstanding defensive work which has put him in line for a possible third straight Gold Glove. As a result, the 34 year old is looking to cash in on his success, which Spotrac estimates lies in the three year/$66 million range. Given that this is his only bite at the free agency apple, it completely makes sense for him to maximize the value he can extract from the market and he is likely worth every penny. Unfortunately, I do not think the D-Backs will ultimately be the one to win his sweepstakes unless his market comes down or he gives a substantial home team discount. Even though Ken Kendrick opened up the purse this past offseason, I don’t know if he’ll be willing to extend and deepen that commitment to those levels – especially with Zac Gallen’s free agency looming next offseason. If they are unable to sign Walker, where could the D-Backs turn instead?
Internal Candidates
Internally, the next man up would undoubtedly be Pavin Smith. The 29 year old (by Opening Day 2025) University of Virginia product has failed to stick long term with the big league club – at least in part because of Walker’s excellence and consistency. He has primarily been an outfielder in his professional career with only 96 appearances at first compared to 200 in the grass. He also has not distinguished himself with the bat as he owns a 98 OPS+ across parts of five seasons and 1100 ABs while his defense grades out poorly with a -7 Rtot at first to this point in his career. However, 2024 was clearly his best offensive and defensive season to date as he put up career highs in EV (90.2) and hard hit rate (44%) which translated into an excellent .270/.348/.547 slash line in limited duty. He even improved his defensive performance with a 1 Rtot at first – albeit in a measly 17 games while Walker was on the mend. Regardless of my misgivings, Smith looks like the starting first baseman come Opening Day – especially given that the only other first baseman in the organization at the upper levels (after Deivyson de Los Santos’ departure at the deadline) is Tristin English who has yet to make his major league debut.
Free Agents
If I’m being honest, the free agency market for first basemen this offseason is pretty bleak – particularly at the price point the D-Backs will be targeting. There is exactly one player – Pete Alonso – who is on the more productive side of 30 and several who are pushing 40 instead. Assuming they do not re-sign Walker, they will certainly be out of the running for signing Alonso who is assuredly the most sought after first basemen on the market. As poetic and nostalgic as it would be to see Goldy return to the desert for one last ride before departing into the sunset, his decline has been brutal to watch as he’s just two years removed from an MVP award. Instead, I think Mike Hazen could easily convince Josh Bell to stay in Phoenix on a team-friendly contract and maybe platoon with Smith at first while also providing some additional pop from the DH spot in the likely event that Joc Pederson exercises his end of a mutual option to explore free agency. While the 32 year old Bell doesn’t have the longest track record of consistent success, he has shown flashes of potential throughout his nine-year career. And, much like Smith, Bell thrived in Phoenix in Walker’s absence – he played solid defensively and posted an impressive .279/.361/.436 slash line during that time.
Trade Targets
Here’s the real wild card of the alternative paths. The Arizona farm system has fallen back substantially over the last few seasons due to trades and graduations, but still holds some intriguing prospect that could be used as capital either this offseason or ahead of next year’s Trade Deadline. There is little chance the D-Backs would be dabbling at the top end of this market (a la Vladimir Guerrero Jr), but there are still several possibilities due either to age, contract status, a prospect threatening to overtake them, or needing a change of scenery. Specifically, there are two such candidates that meet several of those conditions – Ryan Mountcastle with the Orioles and Rhys Hoskins with the Brewers. In the former’s case, he is one of the few survivors of the team’s deep rebuild that has put up solid, if unspectacular numbers over the past five years while also contributing Gold Glove-caliber defense. Unfortunately for the Florida native, he will be 28 by the time Opening Day rolls around and has two highly-touted infield prospects in Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo knocking on the door to find a place for them on the dirt. Hoskins faces a similar predicament (assuming he does not exercise his opt-out clause) as he will be 32 by Opening Day and has Milwaukee’s fifth-ranked prospect Tyler Black looking to take over the starting first baseman’s job. Even though Hoskins’ numbers this year were down, I would chalk it more up to injury recovery after missing all of 2023 and would not discount his postseason experience with Philadelphia. I think Hoskins’ asking price will be substantially lower than Mountcastle’s given his age difference and contract status as Mountcastle still has two years of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent in 2027. If I had to guess, this is the least likely of the three paths I’ve laid out here, but Hazen has demonstrated several times over the past two season that he is unafraid of making a trade if he thinks it will improve the team and/or the price is right.
Ultimately, I suspect the team will go with the path of least resistance and use a tandem of Pavin Smith and someone else at least to start and then see what happens before the Trade Deadline. At that point, the front office will have to reevaluate and either pickup one of the above agents whose asking price might have decreased or pivot elsewhere. It would be a whole lot simpler if Walker were to re-sign with the Snakes and retire as a Diamondback, but I’m certainly not holding my breath on that outcome. I know that Makkakilo will be doing a more in-depth dive of tandem possibility soon so keep an eye out for that as well! Otherwise, let us know what you think of the possibilities above or even drop a comment about your favorite Christian Walker memory if he does in fact depart for greener pastures.