It’s not decisive, but early results are a strong indicator
The MLB regular season is the longest of any sport. It’s almost twice as many games as the NHL or NBA, ten times as long as the NFL. This is because regular wisdom says it takes that many to even out the factors of chance, which play a bigger part in baseball than the other sports. They are co-operative, with players working together to achieve a basket, touchdown or goal. Baseball is adversarial, with pitcher facing hitter, and the former doing his darnedest to stop the latter from succeeding. But it’s inherently chaotic. A fraction of an inch on the bat is the difference between a pop-up and grand-slam.
However, we’ve seen before how the standings tend to stabilize well before 162 games are played. Indeed, as early as twenty games in, you can tell the good teams from the bad. Already, the Dodgers are on pace for 110 wins. The Rockies are terrible. Neither of these things should come as a surprise. But in general, you can make a surprisingly accurate prediction on which teams will make the playoffs, based on their records after 20 games. It won’t be infallible, of course. However, last year I placed hypothetical bets on teams based on their standings in mid-May and ended up coming out ahead, winning 22 of the 30 bets placed.
I wanted to do something similar this year, but am pushing the boat out further, and doing so a month earlier, after only twenty games. What I noticed was that last year, all but one of the twelve teams who made the postseason, were already above .500 at the 20-game mark. The sole exception were the Houston Astros, a dismal 6-14. This wasn’t an aberration. Over the three seasons we have had 12-team playoffs, 29 of the 36 qualifiers had a winning record to that point. Three were exactly even. But just four were below .500. The Astros were the only postseason team below 8-12, which does not augur well for the likes of the Braves and Twins.
Clearly, a good start doesn’t guarantee anything. Not least because last year, 17 teams were above .500 through twenty. [Through feasting on the ineptitude of the Marlins, Rockies and White Sox, a combined 11-49] So, obviously, not every one of those could play into October. But let’s put my (hypothetical, anyway) money where my mouth is, and see what will happen if I bet on teams to make the playoffs, based on their record to this point. After yesterday, every team has now played 20 games, and this year only thirteen had winning records, with five at 10-10, and the remaining dozen below .500. I’m putting 200 SnakePit dollars on each of the top 13 to reach the postseason, and the same amount on the bottom 12 to miss out. I’ll stay off the five teams in the middle.
That’s therefore a total of $S5,000 being bet in April. Unfortunately, this early, there are no books currently offering odds on both sides for all 30 tesms. I did find a BetMGM chart from about a week ago, so have used the odds given there. Some of these won’t be very profitable. Betting on the Rockies to be making tee time reservations in October, is hardly taking much of a risk. That will net me a whopping two bucks on my $200 wager. But some on both sides could result in a tidy profit. Below, you will find a chart documenting the 20-game standings, my bets and the expected return on a win for each.
My biggest win would be if the Blue Jays make the playoffs (a $640 payout), followed by the Brewers ($530) and the Giants ($510). On the outside of the post-season, if the Braves don’t recover, that will be worth $500, with the Orioles not too far behind, at $436. As with last year, we will now file those away in a safe, and revisit them once the playoff field has been set in October!