Last season, the Padres finished second place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks finished third in the NL West, one tiebreak away from the playoffs. This season, how different is the overall picture?
Many considerations will paint the picture. Let’s look at a snapshot of 2025 salaries (snapshot of active roster and projected total), players who are stars (at least 3 bWAR in 2024), prospects (FV30 or better) with ETA in 2025, and subjective team-specific factors.
Roster Salaries.
The following table shows a snapshot of 2025 player payrolls. Although the Rockies and the Dodgers are at the extreme low and extreme high, the other teams are not that different.
Data from Spotrac.
Star players make an impact.
After defining star player as having at least 3 bWAR in 2024, the following list is a snapshot as of 16 January. It assumes players who were free agents on 16 January do not return to their NL West teams.
- Rockies, 2 star players.
- Giants, 3 star players.
- Diamondbacks, 5 star players.
- Padres, 5 star players.
- Dodgers, 6 star players.
The Rockies and Giants are at the bottom (2 or 3 star players), with the other teams at the top (5 or 6 star players).
FV30 prospects with ETA in 2025.
In this factor, the Diamondbacks shine. Roster Resource showed 3 of these prospects who could help the Diamondbacks in 2025 (Jordan Lawlar, Adrian Del Castillo, and Yilber Diaz). The Giants and the Dodgers had one each. The Rockies and the Padres had none.
My view is that this season Adrian Del Castillo may make the most impact.
Subjective team-specific factors tell the story.
Rockies. They are last with nearly every statistical brush stroke. In the offseason, no big changes were made. They will remain solidly last in the NL West.
Dodgers. They are first with nearly every statistical brush stroke, except the Diamondbacks have more high prospects expected to reach the Majors in 2025. The Dodgers have an experienced GM and they continue to add talent. My view is they will remain first the NL West and likely first in the Majors.
Giants. They are generally painted with fourth place brush strokes. With a new GM (Zack Minisian) and new President of Operations (Buster Posey), there are reasons to expect mis-steps and setbacks and their new path. My view is to expect them to fall a win or two short of last season’s 80 wins.
Diamondbacks Batting. Last season, the Diamondback led the league in runs scored. As discussed in this AZ Snake Pit article, it was because more baserunners and great hitting.
Despite losing two players who hit a total of 148 RBIs (Christian Walker and Joc Pederson), they gained Josh Naylor, who hit 108 RBIs last season. That makes up for 73% of the loss! And it is entirely possible that extra PAs in the DH position (instead of PAs by Joc Pederson) by players with good match-ups will make up the remaining difference!
My view is that it is possible (but with considerable uncertainty) that the Diamondbacks will remain near the top of the Majors in runs scored.
Diamondbacks Pitching. Three reasons starting pitching will be better.
As discussed in this AZ Snake Pit Roundtable, signing top-50 free agent Corbin Burnes will make a large positive impact.
The core starting pitchers will pitch more innings than last season when injuries were significant. Three examples were Zac Gallen missed June, Merrill Kelly missed May through July, and Eduardo Rodriguez started the season in August.
In addition, there is a good argument that the existing pitchers (starters and relievers) will bounce back. FIP and xFIP are sometimes predictive of future performance. Starting pitchers had a team FIP and team xFIP much better than their team ERA (4.01 & 4.05 vs 4.79 per FanGraphs). High BABIP and low left-on-base precentage can indicate bad luck and improved future performance. Last season, starting pitchers had a BABIP that ranked 30th in the Majors, and a low 68.5% left-on-base that ranked 28th in the Majors.
The Padres look similar to the Diamondbacks, but with a significant difference. Similarities include active roster salaries ($172 vs $180 Million), and each team has 5 star players. Last season team wins were not hugely different (93 wins vs 89 wins).
This season, the Diamondbacks will win more games than the Padres. One reason is improved starting pitching. However, the most significant difference will be issues that impact the teams.
The Diamondbacks have an issue with their stadium maintenance. That issue will take years to resolve. Nevertheless, this season it falls short of having major impacts the team.
The Padres have an issue with who owns the team. This season will be greatly impacted by the seeming inability of the Padres to make significant roster moves. One factor may be that they are close to the threshold for a competitve balance tax. The biggest factor is the battles over team ownership. Perhaps their front office is fearfull that when the ownership is resolved, the final owners will disapprove their roster moves.
Through 23 January, despite having many weaknesses, the Padres have made zero trades and have only done minor-league signings (although Roster Resource shows the possibility that Mike Brosseau successfully wins a spot on the bench). Also starting Pitcher Juan Nunez was acquired in the rule 5 draft.
On 24 January, the Padres acquired for cash Ron Marinaccio, who pitched in relief for 3 seasons for the Yankees with an above average ERA+. He is likely the best acquistion of the offseason, although Roster Resource shows him in AAA.
The lack of moves at the Major League level is significant because this offseason the Padres lost 9 players who earned a total of 11 WAR last season (some are free agents but it is not anticipated that the Padres will acquire any free agents at the Major League level). All other things being equal, the Padres could fall to 82 wins.
Summary.
Considering the lack of roster moves by the Padres, and the improved starting pitching of the Diamondbacks, there is a strong argument that the Diamondbacks will finish second in the NL West, ahead of the Padres. The relative positions of the Rockies, Giants, and Dodgers will likely be unchanged.